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"Amazing stats"
Good late Tuesday morning bloggers,
I will start today with an amazing stat that will be fun to track as we go through this cold April. I am not sure if April has ever ended up colder than March of the same year? I will do some more searching for this stat. But, it is happening now and big time so far. In March we had high temperatures under 50 degrees only 4 days. We have already had 6 in April and today could be #7. Look below at the comparison of the first 9 days of April to that of all of March:
March 2007: Average High: 63.5, Average Low: 41.6
April 1-9th: Average High: 53.0, Average Low: 29.2
Today's weather is being dominated by a developing surface and upper level storm. These features are just forming and so it is making the forecast challenging. The heavy rain has formed over northern Kansas and it is heading towards northern Missouri. The main disturbance will be approaching this evening and I expect the rain to become more wide spread in the next few hours.
Then, we concentrate on the next storm system on Friday. The models are coming out this morning and a continued trend towards the surface low being a bit further south and west. This would keep us in the colder air longer and limit the severe weather threat from Friday's storm. The main threat could come in Friday night as the storm lifts out into the plains. Look at where the surface low is forecast to be on the NAM, with the GFS along the Oklahoma border as well. The serious severe weather threat will have to be near and south of the surface low with so much cool air in place over our region. Kansas City would have a strong easterly wind in this scenario and a very good chance of rain with embedded thunderstorms. A few of these could produce hail, but any tornado threat is much more likely down to our south. This has three more days to change and look differently, but the trend is for Oklahoma into extreme southern Kansas and southern Missouri to have the main threat of severe thunderstorms.
 NAM Friday evening 7 PM
After this end of the week storm passes by there is a possibility of some snow on Saturday morning. And, before the storm and after the storm we see two more freezes. Thursday morning could easily drop to below 32 degrees. And, Saturday or Sunday morning may be well into the 20s. And, keep in mind I am still expecting another strong cold surge later in this month.
Have a great day. We will try to update the blog later today. And, we may be debuting our new blog very soon, possibly tonight. I think you will have to register to blog, but it would then be easier from then on for you to participate in the NBC Action Weather Blog. I hope it looks great. We should all see very soon. Maybe this evening.
Gary
Posted by at April 10, 2007 10:50 AM
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I am eager to see the new blog!
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Scott,
I will find out if there are any potential bugs with it. If there are I don't want it on yet. And, I should get a look at it within the hour to see if it is any differnent.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at April 10, 2007 11:29 AM
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Gary, can't wait to see the new blog. Hopefully it is sharp looking. Mark
Posted by: Mark at April 10, 2007 1:36 PM
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I had a question concerning some of the graphics I see posted on this blog. When I see a graphic like the one posted in today's entry, I can understand it OK. My question concerns the 500mb vorticity graphic I sometimes see posted. What exactly is that and what does it tell us about the weather? The link I posted below is the GFS 500mb vort at 00UTC which I believe is 7PM our time. Are those dark orange and red colors close to our area any concern? And also, what is that black X that is near our area as well? Thanks.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084m.gif
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Justin,
The black X is the vorticity maximum. We will go more into this sometime soon. But, it is the center of an upper level disturbance. The orange and yello areas around it are vorticity levels. And they are increasing over us. This is causing a lot of lift. Now, for concern we must look at all of the features. In the map I posted today I showed the surface. The surface low south of us is actually being generated by that upper level low and vort max. If the surface low stays where it is forecasted to be then the tornado threat will be low for us, but still some hail could be possible.
Gary
Posted by: Justin at April 10, 2007 1:46 PM
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Gary,
That's a very amazing stat. It will be fun to watch.
Gary, you mentioned the possibility of snow on Saturday. I know it's a ways away, but are you referring to a dusting or something a litte more?
Also, I know you bring the dogs along and speak quite a bit to school groups. Do you ever do anything with pre-school kids?
Thanks!
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Matt,
The snow potential is there, but this would have to take a perfect track. It may, and if it did then it could be a record April snowstorm. It will probably be just a bit too warm.
I do talk with preschool kids with the dogs, but rarely as my schedule is so booked.
Gary
Posted by: Matt P at April 10, 2007 2:16 PM
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Mr. Lezak,
I will not be able to give you an official rainfall total for 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe because my rain guage broke. But, it looks like about a half of an inch of rain fell. Thanks, Eswar
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Eswar,
You probably had just under 1/2 inch so far. What happened to your rain gauge? This weekend you should go to walmart or a hardware store and pick one up.
Gary
Posted by: Eswar at April 10, 2007 3:50 PM
Gary,
The rain has stopped here in Lawrence, at least for awhile. As of 4 PM my gauge is showing .4", which certainly make me happy that I buckled down and mowed yesterday.
Now at the risk of being chastised, what if any rain/moisture does your Weather Ball indicate may happen next week.
I'm trying to schedule some yard work and any insight as to what days look the most likely to be wet and of course after that comes the question...a lot or little wet...sprinkles vs. downpours vs. T-Storms.
Bob
And I'm for among those anxiously awaiting the new and improved Blog interface.
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Bob,
Next week is a bit tricky, but right now we see Monday through Wednesday as being dry!
Gary
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at April 10, 2007 4:08 PM
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Is this the first year you've observed an alternating warm/cold pattern in your theory?
What is your proposed mechanism for this repeating theory?
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Jake,
I don't have a proposed mechanism yet. But, I am certain that the same pattern that set up in October and November is cycling. I have noticed different phases of the cycles in past years. This year's alternating warm and cold phases will have to be studied. It never really warmed up in March just northeast of us.
Gary
Posted by: Jake at April 10, 2007 5:56 PM
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Gary, checkin' in from Olathe with .25, and the way radar looks we're going to add that much more, nice! I can tell you what probably happened to Eswars' rain guage, it probably FROZE and shattered because of the insanely cold temps. we saw last weekend!!! I remember blogging before the cold snap about how everyone was making such a big deal out of an April freeze, because it isn't that unusual to have a freeze in early-mid April. But in my 40 yrs. the length and severity of that was a definite first. Throw me a bone Gary, will we see 70 before June? Will I be able to take the kids swimming and fishing this summer? Oh no the sky is falling!! Just kidding! You didn't get this kind of action growing up in So. Cal. did ya? Bring back spring! Peace, out. Greg
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Greg,
We really are in a fascinating weather pattern right now. I DID expect this record cold April. This is all part of the pattern. There are a lot of meteorologists out there that say forecasting long range is worthless, and with most forecasts that does hold true, but the LRC has been unbelievable this year. It is the first year that I have tried to make forecasts based on it. It has come through each time, and weeks and months in advance.
Gary
Posted by: Greg at April 10, 2007 6:56 PM
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Gary,
I will have to disagree about the warm March. It was warm in most areas of the country during March 2007. The central plains region, however, had the largest temperature anomalies with respect to average. The only part of the country that was not above normal in March was the northeast.
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Devin,
I haven't checked the map. I was probably thinking about the early part of March.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at April 10, 2007 7:18 PM
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oh my gosh...somethin hilarious has happened at the only other station that has a weather blog on their site...They posted "First, last. and only comment on the LRC"...evidently so many people are convinced of the LRC that they are speaking out against the other stations and they are getting fed up with it. haha GO LRC! congrats guys!
Posted by: Jonathan Katz at April 10, 2007 9:09 PM
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Gary, what are your plans for the future with the LRC?
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Dave,
Go read yesterday's blog, but I have a lot more research to do.
Gary
Posted by: Dave C. at April 10, 2007 9:14 PM
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Gary and Weather Team,
Any comments from the other stations blog comments? I disagree with what they said about the LRC....it is hard to teach a dog new tricks, I guess. Keep up the great work!!! Raining hard here in St. Joseph, MO
Brian
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Posted by: Brian at April 10, 2007 9:22 PM
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