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"Cold April weather"
Good morning,
We are having another hard freeze this morning. If the dandelions haven't frozen yet they will by Sunday. The weather pattern has slipped into the cold phase. We will have ups and downs through the end of April. This weather pattern will highly likely provide another cold surge later this month with a late freeze possible again two to three weeks from now. Between now and then the pattern will become wavy and active with a few storm systems bringing chances for rain and thunderstorms. Snow can not be ruled out yet either. Just look at today where snow is likely over parts of central Kansas. There is even a chance of a few snowflakes coming down near us tonight as another cold surge approaches.
The map below shows the flow by Friday morning. The flow continues to come straight out of Canada aloft and at the surface. There is a big upper low over the Great Lakes states and combined with the big ridge aloft inland over the west into western Canada is providing an environment for the surface high to strengthen and bring one more very cold surge our way. Temperatures in the teens are likely in the area by Saturday or Sunday morning.
Click to enlarge (GFS 500 mb valid Friday morning)
The weather pattern is about to become rather wild over the next week as the big ridge and Great Lakes low features break down. A strong system will blast into the ridge, weaken, but create an interesting set up for Monday night into Wednesday of next week. And, then after this the jet stream strengthens further and a series of strong storm sytstems will be affecting the United States soon. Below, you can see the upper level flow forecast for Easter Sunday. The ridge is being pushed inland by some strong Pacific energy.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow forecast for Easter Sunday)
Look below at what is forecast, by the GFS, to set up for Monday and Tuesday. I drew in a front, which is forecast to be near our area on Monday night. The red and blue alternating lines indicate a stationary front. A stationary front is usually moving very slowly or waving back and forth over a region. Sometimes it can act like a warm front and other times it can act like a cold front. This is being created by one storm moving away as another one approaches and the balance is keeping the front in the same region. This front could have quite a temperature contrast on it (this temperature contrast is what we call a baroclinic zone). As the energy comes across the Rockies an interesting scenario develops. But, where will this front be? It is a few days away so it will look a bit different each day as it approaches. Heavy thunderstorms with hail potential could be generated along and near that frontal zone.
Surface map valid Monday night, April 9th (Click map to enlarge)
After this early to mid week set up the blocking pattern is gone and the Pacific energy will be providing some rather strong upper level storm systems moving across the nation. We will get different looks at this every day, but next week will not be dry.
A lot of moisture will move across the region tonight and snowflakes can not be ruled out. If we see any chance I will blog about this later today. Let us know what your thoughts are today, about the weather of course!
Gary
Posted by at April 5, 2007 6:35 AM
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gary, is there any chance of any measurable amount, i mean anything. even a 5% chance would propably make me stay home and wait and see. will the pavement temps be cold enough to support a dusting?
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Chris,
If we were like the Storm Prediction Center I would say there is a 2% chance of accumulation today. Then some viewers would go "oh my" like Dick Enberg. And, then say "how much", and then I would have to say "I said 2% chance". Now, I am not really giving the SPC a hard time. If one tornado occurs in the entire region then perhaps it justsifies that 2% chance. But, if one light snow shower occurs 90 miles from you then even though it could justify a 2% chance of snow there is no reason to talk about that remote possibility when it is just a small area.
Anyway, as I said, if we see any evidence tonight of it developing the bloggers will be the first ones to know.
Gary
Posted by: chris at April 5, 2007 7:31 AM
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Gary, typical Spring in the midwest. In shorts and mowing the yard, and next thing you know the winter coats are back out. I was really getting into Spring and I believe my blood had even thinned out as this cold air seems to be biting more than I expected. Hope to see a snow shower out of all of this, at least that makes the cold worth it. What will this cold air do for the allergy sufferers? have we made a bit hit against the pollen demons?
I know you will keep us informed, thanks for your information. Have a blessed Easter!
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Keith,
Yes, up and down we go.
Gary
Posted by: Keith at April 5, 2007 7:44 AM
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I still don't think I a crystal clear on how your percentages are done. Jeremy explained it over the weekend, and I thought I got it..but remember disagreeing to myself. Please tell me that coverage or how many people affected does not go into your percentages. You alluded to it above, and I think Jeremy may have indicated it as well. Percentages should be directly related to the likelihood of the event given the conditions...much like Jeff explained at the blogger meeting. Anything else is just makes things more complicated and puts every forecast on uneven ground.
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Scott,
When we say 50% chance of something or 2% chance of something it will have NOTHING to do with coverage. A 50% chance means that 1 out of every 2 times we say there is a 50% chance of rain it should rain. 2% would mean 98 out of 100 times it would not rain.
The Storm Prediction Center may have a different take on it. So, the % chance of severe weather should be looked at very differently. It should be looked at for coverage instead of the percentage chance of you being hit. So, if there is a 2% chance of a tornado on the SPC site then one thunderstorm may produce one tornado. It may be worth mentioning because of the significance of that one tornado. But, almost the entire viewing area would be tornado free.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at April 5, 2007 8:57 AM
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Worth reposting in a fresh blog...
Posted by: Scott at April 4, 2007 09:30 PM
I am seeing a recurring theme. Blogger education. How about a monthly blog entry learning series? What other station in town or the country does this for their viewers? Seems you set a trend with the first ever blogger meeting...next to continue your leadership would be the learning series.
Maybe the first topic could be how to read a 500mb chart? Perhaps a description of what a triple point is, and how it is a signficant feature of a storm. Um...everyone hears about a "dryline"..what is it, and how can it be an indicator? Or even one question I have...on the SPC skew-Ts, what does the "Left moving supercell" index represent in the Supercell composite?
Bloggers..what do you think? Gary/Team has a great ability to communicate weather to the masses...lets take advantage of it!
;-)
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Scott,
I like this idea, especially for later in the spring and summer. We can think about it between now and then. Let's get some feedback from the bloggers. Let us know.
Gary
I like this idea, especially for later in the spring and summer. We can think about it between now and then. Let's get some feedback from the bloggers. Let us know.
Posted by: Scott at April 5, 2007 9:04 AM
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Gary,
I like Scott's idea about the blogger education.
As far as this weather is concerned, it reminds me of my New England springs. The Red Sox (whom I despise) should feel right at home weather wise. I really like the cold, but I could certainly go for some April snow. February, March, and April snows were always the biggest. We had our famous April Fool's Blizzard 10 years ago and 25 years ago this coming Saturday, 1-2 feet came down. April 7, 1982 in our area and the Yankees and Red Sox both flew back to Florida for an extra week of spring training. Another major storm came by three days later. Had the track not shifted further north, we were expecting more than we got the first time.
While most people don't like this cold weather, I enjoy it but would certainly enjoy some snow ... LOTS of it!
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Matt,
This month has the potential to produce a rare April snow. When it gets cold, it really gets cold this season.
Gary
Posted by: Matt P at April 5, 2007 9:25 AM
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Ok..I agree with how you assess percentages. On the April 1st blog, Jeremy and I had an exchange where part of his reply to my question started with...
"A small chance is just that...very few people will see it(severe weather for example). "
As shown in my follow up entry, this statement indicates coverage opposed to liklihood. This is where my confusion came from. Let me know if I am crazy...[probably am]
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Scott,
I made my point and I think you agree. So, even though you may be a bit crazy, but we all are right? It's O.K.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at April 5, 2007 9:32 AM
I like it! Start it now!! :)
Posted by: Andrew at April 5, 2007 9:45 AM
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I love the idea of a learning series. I use the blogs EVERYDAY in my classroom. It is the first thing we do after the bell rings. There are very few areas of science that are more relevant to humans than the weather. I'm ready to learn a lot more!
On the subject of education, if anybody gets the chance to attend one of the Spotter Training Seminars before they're done, I highly recommend it.
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Rod,
The spotter talk schedule is on the National Weather Service, Pleasant Hill website.
Gary
Posted by: Rod at April 5, 2007 12:02 PM
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Gary,
Thanks for the informative blog, you must have put a lot of time into that!!
About the education, I think that it is a good idea, maybe it would be possible over time to gather up the "education entries" and eventually make a "KSHB Weather Encyclopedia" or something like that so if new bloggers have questions they could just go and look up the information with out having to hunt through the archives, this would take a while to build up, but eventually you would have a rather comprehensive weather "encyclopedia".
As for this next week, it looks like fun, but wow we are still in the mid 30's even at this hour, one good thing about this is that I can keep my pop out in our porch room and it keeps it cold like in the winter!!
Even though it will be much weaker in July this part of the pattern could still have a cooling impact then being that it is such a strong set up!!!!
Nick in (cold, cirrostratus covered) St. Joe!!
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Nick,
July will be interesting. The pattern continues to fall into place as expected now and during the next few weeks. The GFS this morning gets an A. It actually has a good idea on how that April 15th storm is going to look. Although I hope it holds off 12 more hours so I can get back from California. It is trending in that direction. But, anyway, in July this part of the pattern will be back and this is why I said in an earlier blog entry that just when "others" are saying summer is here for good", I will likely be saying get ready for a cool spell. The tricky part about July and summer is that the pattern is so weak by then. But, these features may very well overcome that weakness.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at April 5, 2007 12:25 PM
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Gary / Weather Team,
I am curious if we should re-cover our outside faucets.
Please help...we don't want froze pipes, and have removed our covers already....
Thanks!!
Donna
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Donna,
This will not be cold enough to cause frozen pipes. A few more degrees we would have to worry about it.
Gary
Posted by: Donna Murphy at April 5, 2007 12:34 PM
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Hey guys...just kind of curious. We have a ton of family coming in next Thursday for a huge ceremony. We have people coming in from California, Chicago, Michigan and Europe. I'm hoping to have some good old fashioned midwest storms for them to experience. What are the chances? They will be here from Thursday next week until Tuesday the following day. BTW, i have a ton of people asking about the book you gave us at the bloggers meeting. Where can it be purchased.
Thanks...Jennifer
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Jennifer,
If anyone wants the book. I am selling them at only $15 a book. A great value for sure. I have two more boxes of them here at the station. Just let me know and I can send it out.
It does look stormy during those days. I am fairly certain they will see some interesting weather. But, until it sets up it will be difficult to be specific. If it is like the storm in January then it could sleet and be a cold rain here?
Gary
Posted by: Kelsey and Jennifer at April 5, 2007 12:53 PM
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Gary and crew
I think Scott has an excellent idea with the education or training blog, along with an archive to look up different lessons. The upcoming pattern of moisture, does it look to be wet for the main cornbelt; Iowa Illinois, Indiana? The planting delays are getting the farmers nervous!
Thanks
Rod Mn.
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Rod,
I think it will be wet through the corn belt. But, there will be some dry spells.
Gary
Posted by: Rod at April 5, 2007 1:19 PM
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