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WOW,AND WOW again I woke up this morning and the official temp at St. Joe was 24 degrees with an official wind chill of 12 above!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
36 hours ago it was near if not 80 degrees even though we knew this cold snap was coming it is still a shocking event!
Nick in (January like) St. Joe!!!

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Nick,

Even I was shocked that KCI dropped to 25! This is a really cold airmass. Expect more of the same tonight.

Jeremy

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Hey Jeremy,
Good morning. I looked on the blog about the plant tips. That was very helpful. Unfortuneately, the 2 perrenial plants I thought would be ok look like they did when we got our first freeze back in the Fall. Hopefully they will recover. I've never had to deal with this before.
On a different note, my daughter goes to college in Manhattan. Last Friday there was some bad weather there which prompted tornado watches around the area. She told me that Manhattan will never have a tornado because it is located in a valley. Is that true?
Another question. Does the earth's atmosphere rotate with the earth or does it stay in one place while the earth rotates? The deteriorating ozone layer made me wonder.
You are a nice addition to the weather team Jeremy. Have a great day!

Susy

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Susy,

I hope your plants pull through! Tornadoes can occur in valleys, mountains, etc. So Manhattan is not safe from tornadoes.

The Earth's atmosphere rotates with the Earth.

Thanks for the positive feedback!

Jeremy

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Jeremy-
I've been trying to catch up on the blog information and I must have missed something. What kind of a "big storm" are we suppose to have April 14th? I read that Gary will be in Los Angeles for his Mom's birthday and he hopes it waits until the 15th or 16th. Are we talking thunderstorms/tornadoes?

Susy

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Susy,

If you follow Gary's theory there is generally a well defined storm in the cycle. This occurred in earlier cycles and will continue to repeat in some fashion. We will keep you updated on our thoughts in the blog and on-air as mid-April approaches.

Hopefully the storm holds off so Gary can go on his trip.

Jeremy

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Jeremy:
Just an update from. Mn. We had a good 3" plus rain over the last weekend to coinicide with the Dec. 31 rain and LRC timing. We are now at 14 degrees with about a 30 nw wind. North of us yesterday up to 12" of snow. The cold coming from the mid Feb. LRC cycle. Right on the money.
Happy Easter everyone.
Rod Mn.

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Rod,

Thanks for the update. I'm sure you aren't disappointed that you missed out on the snow!

Jeremy

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If this time through for mid April is anything like the last...and with a slightly north trajectory [jet stream recession later in the year]...rut roh. If the above map proves out, looks like we may be very close to the triple point. Not to imply the same thing will happen again, but the last time through we the SPC issued a high risk, with a PDS. Wasn't this the storm that gave us the EF-4 in Linn county? Dunno...its still a ways out, but this sounds like ski trip - part 2.

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Scott,

I couldn't believe it when I saw the 6Z GFS today. But then again why should I be surprised? It's like clockwork.

I think the birth of my daughter ruined the ski trip...although the storm played a part too.

Jeremy

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What's the point in talking about this "big storm" when you really don't know what the threats will be? Alot of people are afraid of severe weather anyways, so why scare them weeks ahead of time?
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Dan,

The point of showing that storm was not to scare anyone. We mentioned absolutely nothing about severe weather, just that the latest trend is to have a storm around the middle of the month. If that map pans out the biggest severe weather threat wouldn't even be here, so once again that wasn't the point anyway.

Gary

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>Yes. Isn't that ridiculous. But, I am planning on going no matter what. Unless it looks like a high risk. Right now I am hoping that it just waits two days. It may very well do that. And, the GFS is fishing, so are the other models. There were a couple of bites a few days ago but now it is in chaos.

Just saying this implies something big will happen.
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Robin,

NO! Now relax. It isn't saying anything. Look at last week. We had some threats, but in the end almost no severe weather happened in our viewing area. So, please do not worry about it yet. I am only saying these things because I am going out of town for a very important visit with my mom and I am hoping that any threat can hold off so I can be here for any possibility.

Gary

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okay now the people getting there legs and other things tied up in knots over the mention of a storm around the 14th...wouldn't you rather be prepared? and no gary or Jeremy did not mention severe weather...a blogger did and he has a right to. The KSHB weather team is the most talented team in Kansas City and have earned enough respect to mention the threat of a storm a few weeks in advance. Now no more nasty comments. as for the trees this morning, the new leaves on them looked like they'd been shellshocked.

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Jonathan,

We don't mind people expressing their opinion. I was just trying to let people know what I was thinking this morning. Since I'm new to the LRC like many...it's fun to see the models 'fit' the LRC the closer we get to specific events within the cycle.

Jeremy

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While we cannot tell people what they should and shouldn't be afraid of, isn't education part of being prepared? Depending on what part of the country you live in, you need to be knowledgeable about the weather pertaining to your area..IE hurricanes on the east coast, earthquakes in California (not weather really but a threat), blizzards up north, etc.
You cannot control Mother Nature so why not take steps to prepare for the possiblity? In California we always kept a plastic container of essentials in case of a severe earthquake that knocked out power or worse. We couldn't dwell on it but if it happened we had preparations. But, it was not an event that could be foretold.
At least here we get warnings about severe weather, Rather than panic, I think we should use blogs such as this as a guide to being prepared for a potential storm threat, whether it is a snow event or a tornado watch. Educate those in your household what to do and where to meet up if separated. Know where your safe area is and have supplies on hand in case you lose power. Rather than panicking at the thought of severe weather look at this as an opportunity well in advance to make sure you are prepared for the slim chance that a storm may affect YOU in particular.
I think the Weather Team does an excellent job in keeping us informed at all times. They NEVER play up the chance for severe weather unless they they believe it is a real possibility, no matter how many times someone pushes them to say more. If it isn't there, or if it is only a minute chance, that's all they're going to say.
As for the mid April storm, just use that as an educational event to be more aware of your plans around then. Oh and hope it isn't a dang snow storm!

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Jeri,

Thanks for the post. We will keep you updated no matter what type of weather is in the forecast.

Jeremy

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Another thing,

no one on the weather team has even mentioned the threat of a storm on the TV forecast yet. So if some of you are so scared of the weather maybe you shouldn't be reading this blog....sorry some of the people have gotten me on a rampage. I'm just trying to defend the best team in Kansas City.
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Jonathan,

Good point. Jeremy was just having a little fun with the models today. I really would rather not show a specific storm 10 days away, but there has been some consistancy with the models lately. As I stated a couple of days ago, let's concentrate on the next few days first. We have a rare April outbreak to talk about.

Thanks for the support.

Gary

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Weather Team-
It sometimes feels like some stations go totally freakout at the possibility of severe weather and others seem like they misjudge the severity of an event and downplays it. Sometimes it's hard to find a happy medium, but when I do it's with your station.
Tim
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Tim,

I think you just hit the point of my entire career. I have always told people that when I am doing the weather I will hold nothing back. I will always tell you what I think will happen. This is where that happy medium is. There is no hype. If I am excited you know. And, if I am concerened then you know that too. Don't you think this is where that "happy medium" comes from?

Gary

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So Jeremy was having fun with the models... let him. I can see his excitement of the LRC growing all the time and I know I'm a firm believer so I'd want to test the models too and besides everything was still fact and nothing was hyped no severe threat was mentioned and even if it was, lets face it, it's spring time. It's gonna happen. I think Jeremy had some excellent insite today. As for general hype and happy mediums, the only thing I really see you get excited about is snow and nice friday nights on the big town. As for the snow you don't blow it out of proportion you just love snow. You have an excellent approach to forecasting. well 3 entries in one day I know your sick of me by now so I'll leave it up to the rest of you!
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Jonathan,

You have good insight! We appreciate your input.

Gary

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Greetings from the front range of Colorado. So far this spring, your area to the east has been more successful in getting moisture than we have to the west (but that is somewhat typical; that's why our average precip. is only 15").

The concern here is that, other than one good rain about 10 days ago, we have not received much moisture. We usually average 12" of snow in March, and 10" of snow in April. So far we have only managed 2" of snow in March, with none so far in April. If we miss all this valuable moisture this time of year (like we did last year), then we're usually set up for a bad drought year. I'm fearing this is happening again this year, which is really surprising since this year's version of the LRC has delivered some good storms to us (up until mid-February), and then winter just went 'poof'.

I hate to admit it because I don't really buy into the El Nino/La Nina hype, but the onset of our dry weather here in eastern Colorado seems to coincide with the demise of El Nino starting in February. Again, this event does not seem to be having quite the dry effect on your region to the east as it is in the western high plains, front range, and southwest US.

Anyway, we REALLY need 1 or 2 more good snows this spring in Colorado, but at this point it does not seem to be in the cards.

Thanks
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Doug,

I think a big one is in the cards for you sometime within two weeks.

Gary

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Hi, How much snow do you think could fall if the conditions are right on thursday night? I remember that about a month ago somewhere aroung columbia got 2 inches of snow in a short period of time I think that may be because of the heavier rainfall in the spring as opposed to winter.
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Brent,

I wish it would spread a bit further east. It looks like we won't see a flake, but north central Kansas could see two or three inches.

Gary

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I don't watch the weather, but I read other blogs and kshb isn't the only station to have mentioned the storm in the middle of the month.
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Susan,

We aren't saying we are the only ones mentioning a mid month storm. We just are talking about what should happen in the weather pattern we are in and we have known about the cycle since December or early January.

Gary

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To warn or not to warn…that is the question. How to use the data, or how to react will always be a personal choice. Part of this purpose of this blog is to educate and communicate beyond the 3 minute blurb on the newscast. This said, I understand the panic of the unknown. In saying the unknown, it is the lack of understanding of the risk and the factors that cause severe weather. Until a few years ago, I had a huge fear of severe weather. Instead of panic ruling my world due to ignorance, I made a personal stand to learn about my fears and to control my concern with information. As much as weather seems to be the “great unknown�, it really is not too difficult to learn about the basic principles that would go along way in calming the spirit. In the 1950’s, the NWS had a policy about mentioning “tornado� to the public. Over time, as technology advanced, and provided tools to better educate the public, this policy changed. No difference today. As we communicate more effectively about the potential, there is a gray line that gets crossed time to time regarding hype - likely the hype some stations or bloggers make regarding upcoming events or in some cases, non-events. I know in some of my blog entries, I refer to potential of severe weather. As all blog entries from the bloggers…take this at face value. In my case, often I refer to data provided from the SPC or other weather tools to make educated guesses. I have been wrong more than right, thus why I am a blogger and not a meteorologist. I think everyone would agree that trying to communicate severe weather 10 days out is not only impossible, but irresponsible. However – indicating that the conditions may be favorable and that in past scenerios [LRC] severe weather occurred, is in my opinion fair game. Take it for what it’s worth, and nothing less or nothing more.

I guess I still struggle why this is such a hot topic. I think the Weather Team has done a great job in riding that line between awareness, warning, and communication. For those that disagree…consider the alternatives.
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Scott,

Thank you, although it took me 3 hours to read it LOL. And again Jeremy was just showing the storm and made no predictions of what it would do.

Gary

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I will start using the following in my weather discussion.

Disclaimer - The following analysis is not from a meteorologist, but is from a hobbiest/enthusiast. The following analysis is personal opinion, and not necessarly shared with the experts mediating this blog.

LMAO

For those weak at heart, the following maps are "scary"

This said..looking at the GFS 12z 228hr and say...um...hmmm...45 days earlier March 1st 12z and say..just for giggles...90 days before on December 1st 00z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_228l.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=070301&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

Darn, LRC!...just keeps rolling along. Short of some slight location changes due to the jet stream, um..well..its very close to the same.

Nevermind the storm reports on 11/30-12/01 and 02/28-03/01 from the SPC!

Boo! Scared ya..didn't I
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Scott,

You don't need to make the disclaimer!!!!!! We are all weather hobbyists! Some of us just get emotional at times.

Remember it isn't a series of maps, but actual weather that counts. The real pattern shows up every day.

Gary

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Gary:

Good evening Sir!!!! Pretty blustery day today for sure!!

Man, we are so close....again-200 miles!!!! Man!!!! It just can't seem to edge any further east-oh well-the fact that we are even seeing the chance of accumilating snow close by (that is not North) is pretty cool in and of itself-the weather here can be so fascinating!! 80's one day freezing the next!! Gotta love it!!!

Oh, I totally agree with you-I will take flakes anytime and seeing them after such a warm stretch and this late in the season is darned cool. By worthless I meant it can't really stay around very long. Hey, I can't give people the wrong impression about my love of snow-anytime of the year is great!!! LOL

Have a great night-I will be watching the sky tomorrow-maybe the models have missed something and this will inch east about 100 miles-always grasping at those straws don't you know!!! It has been nice to be able to BLOG the past couple of days-I haven't had much time and haven't followed things very well (I can keep an idea by considering the LRC) but sure is nice to be back for at least a spell!!!

Bill will always watch for a snow event in Lawrence
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Bill,

I knew you were the big winter fan! We are very similar. I like all kinds of weather, every season, every storm, but winter is by far my favorite.

It is sad that this threat of snow can't slightly shift east. If it were rain it would.

Gary

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Sorry, just me again!! I meant to mention that in catching up on the Blog I have really enjoyed the dialogue between you and Scott-I have learned alot-Thunderstorm development and how to find severe potential on the models is something I know nothing about (not that I really know much about winter weather either-just enough to make myself look foolish LOL) but it has been great and as always greatly appreciated-you guys are all aces!!!!!

Bill In Lawrence

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I agree with Scott and that is also somewhat what I tried to say. Get educated about weather. I think the minute someone mentions a storm there are always going to be that few that suddenly go hide in a corner, so to speak, rather than use it as a tool for being prepared. I don't think the Weather Team should have to monitor a comment just because it sends a couple of folks into a panic. The majority of bloggers that are here alot understand these are just scenarios based on the LRC and today, Jeremy was merely making a point, not starting a severe weather brouhaha.
And regarding other blogs, well, I looked at them once, just for something to do, and they don't even come close to this one in regards to the information given and the professionalism of Gary, Jeremy and Brett, as well as the number of great people who post here.
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Jeri,

And don't leave out Jeff Penner. He is our weather producer and I have been working with him for 15 years. Anyway, thank you so much. I know that my boss has no idea that I spend about 3 hours of my day with the blog. I have a lot of fun doing it. Unfortunately this leaves about 100 emails unread each day and they are hard to catch up to.

Gary

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I know earlier in the week there was a mention of some rain tomorrow night. Is that possible? I'm heading out to the K to see the Royals mash Dice-K. I've been to a bunch of Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox home openers so the temperature shouldn't be much for me. I just don't want to get hit by the rain.
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Matt,

It looks dry. Snow will be falling just west of here on Thursday.

Gary

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I am seeing a recurring theme. Blogger education. How about a monthly blog entry learning series? What other station in town or the country does this for their viewers? Seems you set a trend with the first ever blogger meeting...next to continue your leadership would be the learning series.

Maybe the first topic could be how to read a 500mb chart? Perhaps a description of what a triple point is, and how it is a signficant feature of a storm. Um...everyone hears about a "dryline"..what is it, and how can it be an indicator? Or even one question I have...on the SPC skew-Ts, what does the "Left moving supercell" index represent in the Supercell composite?

Bloggers..what do you think? Gary/Team has a great ability to communicate weather to the masses...lets take advantage of it!

;-)
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Scott,

I like this idea, especially for later in the spring and summer. We can think about it between now and then. Let's get some feedback from the bloggers. Let us know.

Oh, and Scott I looked at your maps. Absolutely amazing. You can see it, but more sophisticated meteorologists would rip that comparison apart. But, we know!

Gary

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Gary-I think thats a good idea about a blogger meeting. A question I have is what is a negative/positive tilted storm, and what's the difference?
Jenna
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Jenna,

We had our first blogger meeting in January with 100 in attendance. We will certainly try to do another one within the year. Great question. This type of question can be answered, but I am sooooo tired right now and going to bed. A quick answer......if a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere is in Colorada and extends southeast towards Oklahoma then this is a negative tilt. If it extends back towards Arizona, then that is a positive tilt. Negatively tilted storms are almost always MUCH more powerful than positively tilted ones.

Gary

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Nice Forecast, but wow 41 on Saturday, that means that it will be in the 30's most of the day and then 19 on Easter Sunday!!!! Oh, and as for the twenty-five degrees for St. Joe tonight, I would almost bet that our official temp will end up closer to twenty because the temp for Saint Joseph is taken at Rosecranes(sp?) airport and it sits geographically in a bowl of lower elevation and on clear, calm, cold nights our "official" temp usually seems to be about 5 degrees colder then the surrounding temps, this also means that if the dewpoints are low enough on Easter morning and we are calm if KCI gets down to about 19 we could have a really interesting number!!!
Thanks for the time.
Nick in (COLD) St. Joe!!!!!!!
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Nick,

You are right. St. Joseph often is one of the colder readings.

Gary