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hey gary,
i could stop by around 8 or 9 on sunday night cuz thats actually when we're gonna be leavin the plaza to go back to chillicothe, i could just swing by there on the way out, so that would be perfect if it is for you. if it's more toward nine, than i wouldnt take up too much of your time cuz i know you would be gettin ready for the 10 o clock newscast, so see you sunday?
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Randy,

I just emailed you!

Gary

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Well..no need for any more proof..but...

Looking back at the blog about 90 days ago, and looking at maps...well. No need to say it.

The 500 is a bit different, but the jet has gone significantly north since then. Many of the same features are there, but moved up a bit. During this part in Jan, we got mainly FR/Sleet. I think this time around, I am thinking rain. In a perfect world..maybe snow..but not based on the last "phased" cycle of the LRC.

FYI...phased is to describe the mated pairs of the alternating LRC cycles.
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Scott,

If the Great Lakes low and blocked pattern can hold for just one more day then this storm will have cold air support and track favorably for snow. But, those are big ifs.

And, the true big storm on the cycle is a few days to a week after this one.

Gary

***************
Sounds more like a bad dream not a fantasy
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Morrell,

We will all wake up in May and wonder how that just happened.

Gary

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Gary
Just read the most recent blog and was wondering if you still think Monday will be in the 60's and Tuesday in the 70's as the seven day forcast is still showing? Keep up the good work and have a great Easter weekend!!

Jason
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Jason,

Monday may still get close to 60 and Tuesday close to 70. Overall we are in a cold April pattern probably for another week or two.

Gary

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Oh dear, for sun lovers like me this is a most unfortunate possibility. I think I will hibernate until May 1st, email me when the warm weather is back.

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The wind is howling out of the north and the temps are floundering in the low to mid 30's WOW, this is an April Arctic blast, we are heading for EASTER and not CHRISTMAS right?;)
As for my college stuff, well calc. is a nightmare,...
But on a good note I'm doing exceedingly well in my Meteorology class, my class ave. in meteorology for the semester so far is a 105%!
last week we were learning about "wave cyclones" and frontal systems and how the jet plays a part in the development of the storm systems. Well here's to hoping next week's wave cyclone has some interesting twists:)!!
Nick in (COLD, windy) St. Joe!!!!
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Nick,

Congratulations on the great meteorology grade. Calculus can be tough.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

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I hope it does snow! I want more snow!!! It would be nice. I hope we get some. Well I am busy working on my research paper. My topic for my paper is global warming. I've always had questions about that particular subject. Maybe I can get some information on it. It would be nice to form an opinon, considering that I dont have one on the particular topic so far. Well I am looking foward to seeing you on Tuesday.!!!
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John,

It could be an extremely exciting forecasting situation on Tuesday for you!

Gary

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The comparison between these two maps are crazy-spooky.

April 14th - 12z GFS 500mb 180hr.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_180l.gif

March 1st - 12z 500mb
http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/070301/index.html

I haven't seen maps look this similar before.

Also..this SPC product is pretty interesting. Has lots of good historical surface, upper air, skew, sat, radar, and outlook data.
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Scott,

The amazing thing is lining up this season's maps and then doing the same for each year. This pattern is so unique.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,
Today I'm on the subject of statistics. What is the chance that an exact situation like March 12, 2006 should happen again in the same area as it did that day? As this lull of severe weather is happening, I'm arming myself with facts to throw out to my wife as she's freaking out!
Thank you
Lee
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Lee,

I always tell people that there is a very good chance that you will never see a tornado. Most people in Kansas City haven't really seen a tornado before. So, tell her that! Of course there is always a chance we will all see one if one comes right through us, but the chances are always quite low.

The March 12th set up is rare and perhaps we get two or three days like that set up each year. But the tornadoes could end up over western Kansas, or Oklahoma. They don't have to be here and most of the time they aren't.

Gary

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You mention a big storm sometime in the next week. Will things calm down and moderate by the 20th? Am responsible for a Scout campout and hoping things are drier than the one on March 30. Hope the Easter bunny has a thick fur coat.
----------------------
Art,

There are about three storms in a row forecast to be lined up. So, I think a storm will be near by.

Gary

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I took a look at the SPC archieve for March 12th, 2006. Another situation where the triple point came right over KC. Huge upper level support. Fair instability/moisture. But..good lift, great sheer and huge helicity readings. Typical of an early spring severe setup.

Trends and relationship...amazing how they work together when other parts aren't working right.
---------------------------
Scott,

The triple point is extremely important. Quite often there are small scale triple points that develop on the mesoscale along drylines and fronts. A good analyst can pick these points out.

Gary

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I sent you an email earlier! Did you get them?
-----------------------
Andrew,

I get 100s of emails. I will look for it. I am sure it is there.

Gary

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What happened the 60's and 70's Monday and Tuesday. Now the forecast says only 54 Monday and 36!!! Wednesday! Isn't this supposed to be spring?? I love snow in the WINTER, but it is high time for 70's to stay around awhile! Did things change that much for Wednesday to be 30 degrees colder than what was forecast as late as this morning?
---------------------
Kimberly,

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are all tricky. I already inched it back up a bit!

Gary

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DOWN with the 18z GFS!! Its lying I tell you, LYING. Heck, when the new new data comes out later, it could give us the biggest snow storm in KC history. Im leaning in that direction. But really, the 18z GFS, it must be broken, you should check it out to see if everything is working right. Perhaps you've mis read it?

****************
Gary, this STINKS out loud! How does this kind of situation line up with the whole global warming debate? Yes we had some above average temps. in March but in comparison to just this week, 20-30 degrees below average for possibly 5 straight days? Seems a bit more like global freezing to me. Oh well, guess I'll crank up the fireplace and watch the Royals, this is crazy, wake me when its over. Peace, out. Greg.
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Greg,

When the pattern set up back in October I expected long cold spells like this. Well, we also know that it is just one part of the pattern. It will warm up in May!

Gary

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Gary,

All I can say is WOW. Your LRC is right on cue. I went to another web blog, and that forecaster said it was going to be a warm end to April. This is the same forecaster that said we would not have a hard freeze (this was like last week when he said this) and that even with cooler weather it would not last more than a couple of days. Now, he is saying that this April cool spell will last through next week. He also called this a "strange weather pattern." I am not trying to knock him down, I just find it amazing he did not see this coming, or that he does not think the LRC exists. I have seen several posts about the LRC latley, and all of them are just trying to point out it is real and happening. I saw a response to some of the posts, and he just does not think it is true.

I wish there was a way to convince him there is something behind your theory. I mean, if he is looking for evidence, why cannot he just look at the past few months, and see what days it has been cooler than normal, when the big storms have hit, and then look at the over all pattern? What is it about the LRC that people do not want to accept? Anyway, my goal is not to tear anybody down. I just find this LRC amazing this year. If we would have had the same pattern as we did last year, then I would have thought something different. However, given that this years pattern has been very active, given that every 45 days or so we seem to cylce through this pattern, and given the how it all works, I truly beleive that there is something to it. Way to go Gary!

Later,
Brian

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Brian,

We'll continue to focus on our forecasts and provide our thoughts in the blog and on-air. The record cold is the #1 focus right now.

Jeremy

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Not exactly an on-topic question, but I'm really wondering... Do you happen to have any suggestions as to the best source for the most accurate weather forecasting for the Branson area? I know it's not our viewing area, but I thought maybe you might have colleagues elsewhere in Missouri that you could recommend or a website that might have a good track record.... Thanks in advance for any info you may be able to provide (if any).

Joy

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Joy,

Are you wondering about a specific time period or just everyday forecasting for someone that lives there? If you are traveling there just let us know the dates and we can help you.

Jeremy

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I am going out to Los Angeles at the end of this month and cannot wait to soak in the warm and sunny temperatures there! This cold snap is most depressing.

********

Bring me with:)

Jeremy

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I would like some snow, But I am so tired of all the freezes and no snow. All the fruit trees are ruined. Welll I will be watching every one of your broadcasts to see what the snow is looking like.

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Brent,

We'll have 2 more computer runs between now and the next newscast, so we should have a better idea on the early week storm. This week looks much more active than this past week. We'll keep you updated.

Jeremy

Good morning to the Weather Team!!!

Wow-it is cold-it is 10:30 on April 7th and I am still sitting in the lower 20's-just amazing weather!!! My thoughts are with all the farmers, fruit growers, and garden hobbyists (like my mom)-I hope things turn out ok-this is just crazy cold for this time of year!!!! And the wind-just wow!!!

Following the LRC, one knew that the first of April was going to be cold (just like I bet we make a good run at the 100's in early June this summer based off of March and December in the LRC cycle) but since I have not had time to really look at Canada and other weather I did not think it would be this cold-this is even cold for early February let alone April!!

Then we look at mid week-the 06z GFS while I don't think it shows major snow for us, it sure does for areas not that far North of here and even still gives us some flakes-something to watch for sure!!! Just crazy weather!!!

Again, there can be no doubts about the LRC-I can't wait for the day that Gary can get this researched and put in a peer journal-just amazing stuff. For sure, this year things really showed up on the surface weather but in all years, you can see this-it is just amazing!!!

Have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Do you think we will have an above average April in terms of precipitaion? Also, how much precip do you think we could see next week? Thanks, Eswar.

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Eswar,

We should be near average for April precip., maybe a little above. It really depends on the exact track of upcoming storms. Also, if thunderstorms move across the area...do they move slow or fast. Lots of variables...but 2007 will not be like 2006 in terms of precip.

Jeremy

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Thanks, Jeremy!

For specific dates, I'm planning for April 13-15.

But I will be moving down to Branson either later this year or next year, so I've also been trying to find out who to watch (too bad Branson's too far away to be in KSHB's coverage area, LOL).

I appreciate your offer of help! You guys rock!

Joy

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Joy,

Right now it looks like a possibility of thunderstorms on 13-14 in Branson, then cooler and dry on the 15th.

Jeremy

Are there any farmers on the blog that could let me know what type of damage has occurred to the wheat crop? It looks real cold in your area. I like what Scott has called the phased cycle because that has occurred once on the 45 day cycle but the 90 day is right on the mark.
Rod Mn.

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it has officially snowed more in atlanta and dallas this month than here! weird weird weather across the nation...

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Murphy,

I saw that snow in Dallas today! Bizarre! I'm still not sold that KCI didn't see a few flurries on Friday morning when pockets of light snow and flurries moved through. Still it feels like winter!

Jeremy

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well, now that spring has come I'd gotten all excited about severe weather season but now this topic of a potential snow storm has now gotten me excited about that I don't know what to route for anymore! I guess lets say bring on the snow!...by the way I keep axiously checking to see if you have a new blog posted so lets get one up huh? See ya!

Jonathan

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Jonathan,

Don't get too excited about snow early this week...the newer runs are appearing this would be mostly a rain event. It does turn cold for a day or two behind the low though.

A new blog is coming soon...

Jeremy