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 April 11, 2007

NAM This Morning, Even Closer to Snow!

Good morning,
This is great! Today's storm will spin away to our northeast and right on its heels a second, stronger storm that drops into the slot to be fired out at us Friday into Saturday. It really appears the severe weather threat will be way south of here. But if the storm tracks farther south, as Gary talked about in last night's blog, it could mean snow. A lot of things have to come together perfectly for KC to be in the snow zone. One of those is critical thickness. The 540 line is south of KC Saturday morning at 6am. You could argue that in mid-April it takes a thickness of 534 for snow and I would say yes if this was happening during daylight hours where the lower levels of the atmosphere would most likely be warmer. But, the thickenss drops below 540 overnight and the surface temperature on the NAM which you can see below drops to 32 degrees for about 6 hours, from 3am to 9am. The third element needed is moisture and there is still a lot left Saturday morning.
Click to Enlarge
nam_April_14th.gif

So how much snow could fall? It is still too early to tell and I really feel the thin band of heavy snow could be anywhere from here to Sioux City, Iowa. If it does snow, it would likely occur between 3am and 9 am. The morning data could be completely different and all this could go "poof" but at least for now we can dream, can't we?

Have a great day,
Brett

Posted by at April 11, 2007 6:33 AM

Comments

******
I'm concerned about late spring flooding which could be moderate across the Kansas and Missouri River Valleys. As we go into May , June and maybe early July. I wonder if a stormy period that may cause clusters and training of Heavy rain producing wide spread Multi cells in 2 to 3 day periods.
******
Steve Newport
De Soto Kansas

Steve,
Its way too early tell.
Brett

Posted by: Steve Newport at April 11, 2007 7:18 AM

*******
Is it oversimplifying it to say we are either looking at severe weather or snow chances for Friday or Saturday? It just sounds like if it goes one way or the other, those would be the outcomes. Interesting either way!
*******
Erin,
Hi, no you're not oversimplifying it. Right now, I lean toward the snow and not severe weather.

Brett

Posted by: Erin at April 11, 2007 7:33 AM

********
Being fascinated by any kind of storms I'm, of course, looking forward to what happens Friday into Saturday. But looking a few days ahead of that I'll be interested in what the temperatures will be come Tuesday. I say this because it seems other forecasts are going with 65+ degrees but you guys are thinking Tueseday will be cooler than Monday and only in the mid-50s. Obviously it's hard to pinpoint a week ahead but I recall a time in February when we had a Tuesday that went over 40 degrees for the first time in a while and only you guys had that in the forecast since almost a week before.

What do you think are the chances Tuesday could actually warm up to 70? Or is it not likely and the other forecasts are just being optimists?
*******
Rick,
Hi, I think they are being optimistic. As the ridge builds on Monday another low pressure trough is deepening out west. That should bring a cold front across the area on Tuesday and thus a little cooler.

Brett

Posted by: Retro Rick at April 11, 2007 7:33 AM

******
We received just a hair shy of 1.5" of rain in Shawnee since noon yesterday.
******
Jon,
Thanks for the report. This storm dug deeper and intensified thus beefing up our rain totals.

Brett

Posted by: Jon at April 11, 2007 8:14 AM

******
With the upcoming storm on Friday, is it a particularly wet storm? I got about 1 inch of rain from this current storm. So can we expect a little more moisture with the storm on Friday?
Mark
******
Mark,
Hi, yes, it looks pretty wet, I would not be surprised to see another inch of rain.

Brett

Posted by: Mark at April 11, 2007 8:40 AM

**********
Hey Gary and the weather team,

When do you guys think it will warm up? I know its looking like the rest of April will be cold but will this pattern turn around to something warmer in May? I know its probably to early to tell but thought I would ask. It is wonderful to see this rain though! Good to see the creeks and rivers are filled up.

~Sarah~
**********
Sarah,
There is likely one more cold spell (By April Standards) at the end of the month then things should start to warm up again.

Brett

Posted by: Sarah at April 11, 2007 9:04 AM

********
Good morning to the best weather team in K.C.! I wanted to thank you for making the weather fairly simple for the 5th graders at Westview Elememtary in Excelsior Springs. They had a project to listen to their favorite weather station and tell about the low and high pressure, the temps and then the next day they had to tell how accurate they were and you guys were tops. I believe most of the class watches channel 41. You guys gets an A+ and thanks again for making weather fun and understanding to the kids.
*********
Susan,
Thank you for your kind words.
Brett

Posted by: Susan Poor at April 11, 2007 9:39 AM

*********
Why would anyone want or dream about more cold temps and snow in the middle of April? This weather pattern is horrible, as all the widespread freeze damage verifies. Its sad to see all the damage to the flowers and trees. Though the rain is a good thing, no one can even get into their gardens because of the cold temps and no warm up in sight is very discouraging.

Jeff

*********

Jeff,

It won't be as cold next week. I'm with you...I would love to see an end to the freezes and cold temps!

Jeremy

Posted by: Jeff at April 11, 2007 9:56 AM

*******
Brett,
I see the NWS has already issued Winter Storm watch for western Kansas for Thurs. night & Friday. They're expecting 4-9" of snow with possible blizzard conditions.

Dave

*********

Dave,

We'll see which way the storm continues to trend!
Some snow is possible around KC though.

Jeremy

Posted by: Dave G at April 11, 2007 10:33 AM

**********
Just glanced at the new GFS - it's in line with the new NAM - both giving us around a half an inch of PW while in the frozen part of the storm in the 66 and 72 hour timeframes. Wow...this could be a record April storm if this verifies!

**********

Drew,

The storm looks exciting! We'll continue to track the possiblity of snow. This would be a significant weather event in KC weather history if we see snow accumulation.

Jeremy

Posted by: Drew at April 11, 2007 11:01 AM

********
I'm planning a vacation in Washington, DC in May. Any ideas if I need a coat on this trip, or should it be warm then?

*********

Jean,

I would bring a coat. Spring weather changes pretty quick this time of year...even in the East. Daytime temps should be nice, but at night it will still be coolish.

Jeremy

Posted by: Jean at April 11, 2007 11:51 AM

**********
It is crazy to watch the other forecasts continue to try and warm things up and it just isn't happening. One other forecast has 52 on Saturday and Rain still. I am not saying it is going to snow, but the latest data would be closer to snow than 52 degrees and rain.

*********

Brian,

We will always bring you the latest weather information on the blog and TV. The Friday/Sat. storm looks wet! We'll continue to track the possibility of snow and have another update later today.

Jeremy

Posted by: Brian at April 11, 2007 12:27 PM

*********
Hi weather team.

I am exited about the chance of snow! do you think that the southern parts of the metro will be left out?

*********

Brent,

Accumulating snow is rare...but possible in mid-April. The daily snowfall records in Kansas City on Friday & Saturday are 2.0" & 1.6" respectively. Right now the possibility exists that everyone in the viewing area has a chance of some snow. Accumulations are still too tough to tell because of the hard trend in the models to a farther south track. Does this continue and then the snow is even south of KC? We'll look at the next couple of model runs before placing totals on this.

Jeremy

Posted by: Brent at April 11, 2007 1:20 PM

*********
The NWS has evryone further south of us listed in a slight risk watch for Thursday, just like you anticiapted the severe weather will be well away from the metro. SIGH. As dark and gloomy as today looks, with our temps dropping here in Lenexa, I half expect to see flurries any minute.

**********

Jeri,

It feels and looks like November outside! I think all of the moisture will be east of us before the air supportive of flurries would arrive. By Friday Night though, that's a different story and the focus during our weathercasts today. We'll keep you posted. Thanks for the post!

Jeremy

Posted by: Jeri Correll at April 11, 2007 1:43 PM

**********
Ahh, A nice long soaking, we had precipitation from moderate rain, to drizzle from yesterday into today as the wave cyclone really developed!!!
I just hope that all the precip. from this next storm doesn't all go south of us, but I am concerned, I would think that it would be at least a hair further north then its "twin" in early Dec. since the jet should try to be farther north this time of year, with that storm that is all that it would take to put us in the ULL.
It's amazing to see the return of winter to many parts of the country, there is no doubt the LRC is real, it appears the clouds are thinking up more here because it seems to have recently gotten dimmer.
BTW, in my meteo. class I have a project that I am working on where I have to put down data at weather sites all over a made up country, and use a plot of the jet stream and air coming in at the 700mbar level to make a weather map and make a forecast from what I see, so I get to have a very small taste of what you guys have to do!!!!!!
Nick in (cloudy,breezy,wet) St. Joe!!!

***********

Nick,

Thanks for the post. Once you learn more about Meteorology we'll ask your opinion on the big storms:) Keep up the good work!

Jeremy

Posted by: Nick Rau at April 11, 2007 2:12 PM

*********
'm ready for warm spring weather. But since it is going to be cold, then I hope we get some snow out of it. At least then it will be worth the cold air.

*********

Melanie,

I'm with you...I would like a warm-up too! Our focus the rest of the week is the Friday/Saturday storm.

Jeremy

Posted by: Melanie at April 11, 2007 2:33 PM

*******
Jer: Is there any new data since this morning? I need an update...

******

Craig,

Jeff is writing a new blog right now!

Jeremy

Posted by: craig at April 11, 2007 4:02 PM

 
 

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