« Quick Morning Update |
Main
| Overnight Data »
New Data is in...It Looks Like Snow!
We have just analyzed the new NAM & GFS. The storm is taking a perfect track for us to see snow, the atmosphere is cold enough to support snow. There are 2 factors that we have been monitoring that could limit snowfall.
1. How cold will surface temperatures get tomorrow night as the atmosphere gets cold enough to support snow? If it drops to 35-37° tomorrow night we will see a rain/snow mix with no accumulation. If it drops to 32-34° then the rain could change to wet snow between 8 PM & 11 PM Friday night, ending 8-10 am Saturday. We lean in the colder direction. Accumulations right now look like 1-3" on grassy surfaces with the roads likely wet. However, since this is happening at night the chance of the roads getting a slick slush on them is higher & we must watch this closely.
2. The storm system is weakening as it moves east-northeast towards us. However, all of the latest data suggests the storm will hold together long enough to keep precipitation going all Friday night into early Saturday.
Below are the surface features for 7 AM Saturday & the total liquid precipitation (around .20", see key) from 12 AM-7 AM Saturday. This should be all snow as the 540 thickness (rain-snow line) is 150 miles southeast of Kansas City.
Surface Map (7 AM Saturday):
Key for Liquid Equivalent Precipitation:
Oh by the way it looks like we could see widespread 1" rains before the changeover. So total liquid from this storm could be 1-1.30"!
One more thing. Here are the daily snowfall records for KC on Friday and Saturday. We likely stand a better chance of breaking the Saturday record if any records fall with this storm.
April 13: 2.0" 1933
April 14: 1.6" 1996
We'll keep everyone posted on our thoughts as the storm nears!
Posted by at April 12, 2007 5:08 PM
Posted by: Jereme at April 12, 2007 5:16 PM
********************************
Jeff,
I have noticed that the models have a tendency to move storms south and then they seem to come back north in the last 24 hours or so. I also noticed that the last storm that came through intensified over the top of us. Is it possible 1. that this storm will not lose strength as it moves in? 2. that this storm trends back north? and 3.that it could take on a negtive tilt and draw more cold air in to it and develop a trowel that will enhance the snow fall?
thank you
Kurt
----------------------------------
Kurt,
These are good questions. Yes, sometimes the models break systems apart too fast. The 18z GFS is trending towards holding it together. The storm may come a bit further north, but not much. Systems ejecting out of the southwest often come out further north than the models say. It depends on the pattern. There is not much more cold air to draw in. It is doing about as good as job as it can this time of year.
Lets get some snow!
Jeff
Posted by: Kurt at April 12, 2007 7:06 PM
*********
Hello Jeff,
I was wondering why would it only accumulate on grassy surface's is ground warm?? Does it look like it will melt any time soon, even if we do get 3 inch or more??
Anne
*********
Anne,
Road temps are warmer than the grassy areas, so most of the accumulation will occur on the grass. If it snows hard enough, some may stick on the streets.
The sun comes out by Saturday afternoon, so most if not all of the snow will melt very quickly. With a fairly high sun angle and temps in the 40s the snow has little chance of hanging around too long.
Keep in mind most areas should see less than 3" that is the top amount of the range that only some spots may see.
Jeremy
Posted by: Anne at April 12, 2007 7:29 PM
*********
I am afraid to ask if the southern part of the metro will see any snow? I just want an inch when I wake up!
Is it possible?
**********
Brent,
In some regards the precip. may line up a little like November 28. Not much snow in northern Missouri and more around the metro and maybe a few spots to the south. The cut-off shouldn't be as dramatic as the November 28 storm. Overall though, most areas have a chance of 1-2" on the grass, with a few spots around 3".
Don't sleep in on Saturday though or you might miss out. A lot of this will melt when the sun comes out on Saturday!
Jeremy
Posted by: Brent at April 12, 2007 7:47 PM
Posted by: ryan mcmillian at April 12, 2007 7:47 PM
****************************
Hey it looks like the new NAM gives more snow im thinking this is really gonna happen. and unfortunately i have to go to St. Elizabeth its east of here for district quiz bowl saturday morning. hows it lookin in central MO
-----------------------------------
Daniel,
Yes, the NAM does have more. We are still sticking with 1-3" as we can always go up. And there is still a question of snow intensity & will rain be mixed in at times, especailly after sunrise Saturday.
Central, MO could also have 1-3" 3-10 AM Saturday. The roads may have some slick spots.
Jeff
Posted by: daniel at April 12, 2007 9:51 PM
**********
There is SNOW mixing in with the rain this morning in Lenexa. About 7:10 the rain started to come down heavier and mixed with snow! It is still coming down. It is still in the 40's though. What caused this?
David
**********
David,
Thanks for your report. Most precipitation starts out in a frozen form and melts as it falls. Melting and evaporation are a cooling process so the snowflake is somewhat insulated and can stay frozen all the way to the ground.
Posted by: David, Lenexa at April 13, 2007 7:27 AM
|
