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Good morning weather world,
The overnight data continued the trend of last night's run. The rain most likely changes to snow late tonight and early tomorrow morning. On Wednesday, I blogged that snow could accumulate because it was coming overnight, so even if critical thickness was in question the timing would help us out.
Below, I've included both the GFS and the NAM which both now bring the 540 thickness line to south of Kansas City.
Click to Enlarge GFS
Click to Enlarge NAM
As Jeff and Jeremy said last night, 1 to 3 inches isn't out of the question, mainly on the grass. But if you want to see snow you may have to wake up early...there is a chance the snow turns back to rain as the precipitation comes to an end. That, along with temperatures rising into the 40s would melt the snow during the early morning and create a lot of fog in the afternoon.
Have a great weekend,
Posted by at April 13, 2007 7:31 AM
so despite morning snow cover, shouldn't prevent temps from rising well above freezing?
Not this time of year, since solar radiation is so strong.
Posted by: Jonathan Katz at April 13, 2007 7:47 AM
What time do you think the precipitation will end? What time will the snow cease to fall and/or appear on the ground?
There is a chance the snow changes back over to rain around 8 or nine before ending about 10:00am.
Posted by: Matt P at April 13, 2007 9:27 AM
The new 12UTC NAM gives us a total of .6 to 1.0" of moisture when the 540 line is well south of KC if you add the 24 & 30 hour depictions... Can we say Winter Storm Warning anyone? (It'd be fun!)
We shall see, the 12 utc NAM also insists on keeping the surface temp around 35. Perhaps a tad too warm to turn us over completely to snow.
Posted by: Drew at April 13, 2007 9:27 AM
Good mid morning to everyone!!!
Little drizzle currently-looks like heavier shield of rain about to move in-the storm looks like it is getting revved up on staelite and radar!!! For sure very interesting next 24 hours-how will it all shake out?? I know for sure you are up to the challange and more than that, embrace it!!!!!!
In an ironic twist of weather fate: we finally get the perfect track, the classic 4 corners low that goes into nrothern Oklahoma and Arkansas-and it's April 13th!!! LOL-I can't help myself but to think if this exact track had happened in the cold phase of February....
Have a great day-and for sure, when this comes back around in late June, as Scott alluded to, watch out-Mother Nature may just show us what true fire works really are-I also would not be surprised to see us make a run at 100 plus in early June when the warm phase returns-oops-another time..focus focus-will be fun to watch the next 24 hours-good luck to you as I know the phones will be ringing!!!
Bill in Lawrence
Looks like the steadier rain is about to move in. Keep us posted today!
Posted by: Bill Gollier at April 13, 2007 10:47 AM
are we still looking @ 1-1.30 inches of rain by sat?
Some areas will see 1"+ of precip. Most areas from KCI and points south will see the heavier rain totals.
Posted by: kristy at April 13, 2007 10:49 AM
Am I reading these right? To me it looks like the 12z runs of the NAM, NGM, and GFS all moved the 540 line north compared to the 6z runs.
The NAM was a bit warmer this morning. Personally, we never believed the really heavy snow it was producing last night. It was showing some areas with 6-10" of snow. That did not seem realistic.
Posted by: Rob at April 13, 2007 11:28 AM
Guys: The Weather Channel now has us in a little 3-6" bubble on their snowfall map.
That is their forecast and we have ours...which is not 3-6".
Posted by: Craig at April 13, 2007 11:31 AM
do you still think we will see 1-3in of snow over by worlds of fun area?
Some slushy accumulation is possible tonight. We'll update the forecast after Jeff and I discuss things this afternoon.
Posted by: nikie at April 13, 2007 11:32 AM
I was just wondering if you had a guess yet as to when the precipitation is going to be turning over to snow. I will be driving from KC to Lawrence tonight and was wondering about the possibility of the roads getting nasty. Thanks!!
The changeover may occur around midnight give or take a couple of hours. I think the roads will mainly be wet, unless a period of moderate snow moves in, then the roads may be slushy in spots.
Posted by: Jason at April 13, 2007 1:02 PM
Hello Weather Team,
Will all the snow melt tomorrow after noon, even if we get the 3 inch? Will the sun come out tomorrow afternoon?
3" totals will only occur if the changeover happens before midnight, otherwise some areas could see a slushy inch or two. Most if not all of the snow will melt on Saturday.
Posted by: Anne at April 13, 2007 1:22 PM
I live in Omaha, NE and found this blog yesterday. The LRC seems very interesting and is truly remarkable. If this pattern is just not a "coincidence", do you know (or have a theory) about what causes this cycle? Thanks for answering.
Gary is on vacation right now so I would pose this question when he returns. The LRC is still a theory and in time will be studied and hopefully proven.
Posted by: Ross at April 13, 2007 1:23 PM
I think it might change over a little earlier, and I hope 3-6", would be nice. I sorry for all the snow haters out there!
Stranger things have happened, but 6" of snow would need a very early changeover time and also several hours of moderate to heavy snow. I just don't see that happening. It is mid-April after all...any snow at this point is a bonus for snow lovers.
Posted by: Andrew at April 13, 2007 1:37 PM
Well were under a snow advisory, we'll see. Here we go again Saint Joe has gotten the short straw this year when it comes to snow, the models still have it coming right up to us, but well...
Interesting note I am seeing a SW to NE orientation on the NWS radar loop with the lightest of the echoes it looks just like the thing that I saw with the Early Dec. storm, with the only exception that it may be a little farther north and west, hopefully if this ends up being the cut off it will stay where its at, but I'm not going to get too exited because the LRC is happening again!!!
Nick in cloudy dull St. Joe!
Jeff and I were talking that this is 'The Storm' so the cut-off point will likely occur once again somewhere near KC. So St. Joe may miss out dispite being in a snow advisory. We'll have an update around 4:30pm with our thoughts for snow and who will see what.
Once again 'The Storm' is having a hard time pushing the precipitation much farther north than KCI at the moment. Keep in mind the main energy with the storm does not arrive until later, so don't lose hope yet!
Posted by: Nick Rau at April 13, 2007 1:57 PM
So we are going to maybe get on inch down to the south...well thats not to bad for april. All we need it for it to drop below freezing right now then we would get some snow. I guess that the snowlovers can hope for the changeover to occur earlier. Is there a chance that the storm could pull in the cold air faster than predicted?
If this storm had happened last week when it was so cold we would have had a nice snow.
If the changeover to snow occurs before midnight then snow accumulation is more likely(1-2"), if after say 1 or 2am, then little accumulation and only on grassy areas. We have a new forecast snowfall graphic for the newscasts tonight.
Posted by: Brent at April 13, 2007 2:45 PM
hey any chance of maybe a small thunderstorm or two before the snow starts tonight? and how much snow are you expecting for chillicothe?
Probably no thunderstorms for Chillicothe. We are working on some graphics for the shows, and right now it looks like areas from Chillicothe to St. Joe may only see a rain/snow mix with little to no snow accumulation. We'll see...
Posted by: Randy at April 13, 2007 2:54 PM
The new NAM is out, and my forcast for St. Joe tonight is...
Figured I make my prediction before I went to work tonight.
Nick in St. Joe.
St. Joe may see some rain, maybe a snowflake mixed in after midnight, but we don't think any snow accumulation that far north. Sorry!
Posted by: Nick Rau at April 13, 2007 3:41 PM
What's with this pocket of rain to our south? It's not moving. It's getting really frustrating watching it sit there while we have only see .09" so far. I guess we still to have the rest of the night though. Oh, and by the way, there are still bits of snow mixed in with the very light rain here in Lenexa.
Thanks for the report. Keep us posted on the snowflakes and if they become more numerous. This is a tricky forecast to say the least!
Posted by: David, Lenexa at April 13, 2007 3:50 PM
As of 3:30 PM, I had 0.19 inches of rain at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe. Also, when do you think the rain will change over to snow? Thanks, Eswar.
Thanks for the rain total. The changeover should occur where you are at somewhere around midnight.
Posted by: Eswar at April 13, 2007 3:58 PM
Well its 4pm and its raining. I looked outside and I am seeing a few snowflakes mixed in I think...
The temperature has dropped four degrees in the last hour and a half and it is down to 37. I hope it just keeps dropping!
Are you in Overland Park?
Posted by: Brent at April 13, 2007 4:01 PM
snow mixing with rain in olathe at 4 p.m
Let us know if this continues.
Posted by: Alan at April 13, 2007 4:03 PM
Same thing in Olathe too, Rain mixing w/sleet
Posted by: Andrew at April 13, 2007 4:06 PM
There is snow mixing with rain in Lees Summit 3:45 and still continues mixing more into further at 4:15PM. Wonder if its changing over early? It has been consistant for 30 minutes now. -Lees Summit, MO.
Location NE Indepence Ave & 291 HWY.
Keep us posted...I don't think the changeover will occur until late this evening to all snow. Snowflakes and sleet may mix in at times this evening.
Posted by: Brett at April 13, 2007 4:17 PM
Quick check in-another great rain here in Lawrence-not a down poor, but def. a good soaker!!!
My temp. is slowly dropping-down to about 37 degrees-no flakes mixed here as of yet. I see where Hutchison has turned to snow and now has Thunder Snow and is at 33-Salina still rain and 40. What a tricky scenario developing!!!
Bill in Lawrence
Have a great evening!!
Posted by: Bill Gollier at April 13, 2007 4:23 PM
Snow mixing with rain in south OP. Consistent for past 20 minutes. It's about a 1 snowflake to 20 raindrop ratio.
Posted by: Brad at April 13, 2007 4:25 PM
Checking in from 119th and Ridgeview in Olathe at 4:35. Light rain and 39 degrees. Looks like radar is showing most of the heavier precip. staying south. What are the chances we don't see any snow accumulation, even on grassy areas? Peace, out. Greg
Posted by: Greg at April 13, 2007 4:38 PM
Hi, I live in harrisonville and its 35 and dropping, the rain seem to be trying to change to snow it is probably about 50% ice and snow and the other 50% is rain but its getting colder. I can only hope that the changeover is occuring earlier!
Posted by: Brent at April 13, 2007 4:40 PM
In the midst of this "snow" stuff, I found it interesting to watch this storm on the models as it heads for the NE. This will be quite the NorEaster. Rather signficant with pressures bombing to that of a Cat 1 hurricane. This storm from Tues to this one will be pretty wicked at May 30/June 1st.
So...aside from the "snow"..when is the new blog format due to arrive? I think we can begin trending this actvity with its own cycle of weeks or months. Perhaps the RBC [Returning Blog Cycle].
The new blog format should be here by Monday. They are going to have quite a storm in New England.
Posted by: Scott at April 13, 2007 5:00 PM
i just wanted to say we had some ginormous snow flakes mixed in with rain down here in creighton mo.....
Posted by: issac at April 13, 2007 5:01 PM
Gary and all,
No need to post or respond to this. Just a note to say how much I appreciate this blog and the creative thinking on it (wish we had somthing like this in Colorado but we don't).
I also want to say 'farewell' for awhile, you won't find me lurking or posting here until late summer.
For my own sanity I'm going to tune out the weather stuff for awhile. I do believe you are on to something with the LRC, and it makes sense. I just find this year's version to be extremely frustrating, and I would say is only marginally better than last year's (at least here in Colorado). There seem to be more 'chances' of storms and precip, people get their hopes up, and then little or nothing happens. With the exception of a few big storms, we have had years of this and it makes weather watching not so fun anymore.
I'll check back in later this summer, and this years LRC fades and another one starts to form. The new pattern will be different and I just hope will be more productive in terms of precip. There is always hope for the next year...
Have a great Spring and Summer,
Posted by: Doug at April 13, 2007 5:14 PM
Hello weather team. I live in Kingsville MO and when I looked outside at 4:30, we had a rain/snow mix. The rain gauge had .30 in it. Temperature is about 38 degrees. Just looked outside again at 5:15 and looks like the rain is not as steady, but still looks like a little snow mixing in.
Posted by: Kimberley at April 13, 2007 5:15 PM
5:23PM snow mixing in with rain at 130th and K-7 in Kansas City
Posted by: Bryan at April 13, 2007 5:23 PM
One more quick update
Temp. now down to around 35-a few flakes trying to mix in here in SW Lawrence-considering Hutchison changed and was some 5 degrees colder than Salina and based on reports from around here, I am wondering if the biggest snow chances will be confined to closer to the low (not to mention biggest precip. shield) since it seems the low itself is creating the cold air just North of its center-in other words, it doesn't seem that this is really drawing in cold air from the North-more that the cold is just around the core..just a random thought.
Will still be fun to watch and hey, I have seen a snow flake on April 13th (hmmm-concidence...) so who am I to complain!!!!?? It for sure tops off what has been a very good winter for a snow/frozen precip lover as myself!!!
Have a great evening
Bill in Lawrence
Posted by: Bill Gollier at April 13, 2007 5:25 PM
Here in Olathe it is now Big SnowFlakes with a little rain mixed in.
Posted by: Andrew at April 13, 2007 5:27 PM
There are huge snow flakes starting to mix with the rain here at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe.
Posted by: Eswar at April 13, 2007 5:27 PM
SNOW UPDATE...Temp down to 35.9 in South OP (159th & Nall). Snow ratio is up to close to 75% all snow. Flakes are LARGE. Steady precipitation at 5:30...
Posted by: Brad at April 13, 2007 5:33 PM
Sorry to bother you again-but wow-that precip shield-I know this has been commented on already-but again-wow-does it look like last Novermber or what??? I'll say it again: The LRC is TIGHT!!!!!! (Will be looking for that run at 100 in June!!!)
Bill in Lawrence
Posted by: Bill Gollier at April 13, 2007 5:41 PM
Large snow flakes almost 75% in Harrisonville at 5:45 do you think you will up your totals a little? I think that the snow may start early. Another channel said that the heaviest amounts would be to the south, I hope that holds to be true, But I always trust you guys to get it right.
Posted by: Brent at April 13, 2007 5:47 PM
Okay, the snow can't make up its mind...now it's back the other way: 75% rain to 25% snow. Temp continues to drop, down to 35.1. I won't blog again until we're 100% snow in south OP.
Posted by: Brad at April 13, 2007 5:56 PM
Has been steadily "slushing" in Gardner for well over an hour now. Huge, white looking rain is falling but it appears more slushy when it lands on a windshield. Is it changing over sooner than anticipated or is this what was to be expected?
Posted by: Erin at April 13, 2007 5:58 PM
can anybody tell me the road surface temps and there projected lows. thank you
The road temps in the metro are around 44 degree, Emporia where it is snowing is now down to 40 degree road temps. Road temps will likely not drop to 33 or 34 degrees tonight, but if it snows hard enough we may see some slushy areas.
Posted by: chris at April 13, 2007 6:13 PM
what are the chances for some thundersnow? that has to be the weather channel's reasoning for 3-5 inches on their forcast...
There may be a couple of spots if the changeover occurs quicker that could see 3-4". Best chance from downtown KC to about Gardner, KS and towards Lee's Summit. Something to watch...a big maybe.
Posted by: murphy at April 13, 2007 6:19 PM
It's all rain in Lees Summit again.... Im waiting LOL.
18:31 Friday April 04/13
Posted by: Brett at April 13, 2007 6:32 PM
Reporting from Lees Summit, Mo 810cst
Thundersnow. I am happy! LOL- I knew I moved 70 miles southeast for a reason! I pretty muched missed out on all the winter action, so this is a suprise. Happy.
But I do like seasons, so this is a total shock, I have not seen thundersnow since April 10 several years back. It accumulated an inch or two. This one? Don't tell. Wow! Snowflakes that are the size of golf balls, with thunder. A Friend just called from just accross town and said, "Did you hear that", I said , look out your window its snowing.
Posted by: Brett at April 13, 2007 8:24 PM