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I noticed there is no longer anything predicting severe weather from the NWS. Does it look like we are in the clear now?
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Audrey,
Hi, yes the surface low is tracking too far south. It may get as close as Springfield Missouri.

Brett

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i dont want any snow,my flowers have already taken a beating. it will be very interesting to see what happens with this storm. i wish the warm weather would return. do you think we will have more than 2in of snow?
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Nikie,
Probably less and only on the grass.

Brett

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Brett,

How much precip. will we get out of this storm? I looks like we are going to get less than what was previously predicted.

Is that true?

Fred
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Fred,
I think all along we've thought an inch of rain was possible and it is still very likely. The tenth to quarter inch of precip I talked about in my blog was the amount that could fall as a rain/snow mix overnight Friday into Saturday in addtition to the inch of rain before midnight Friday.
Brett

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Something of interest. In looking at the SPC outlooks for tomorrow vs. the one from March 1st [tornado outbreak in the S/SE], they are pretty close regarding the hatched areas. The point is not so much the exactly areas, but both moderate risks, both with the same storm, both 45 days apart. I think I have an explanation for the shift in the hatched areas. Since this year, we are seeing a warm and cold phase of every other cycle, being that this is the cold phase, I should have known in advance, that severe weather would have been shifted south due to the cold air in place. The cold air isn’t deep enough to eliminate the severe weather all together, but deep enough to push it south and push the ULL south. Based on this, it would indicate that the return of this storm should be in the warm phase, at the end of June with more convective energy – warm moist air, strong upper air support, sheer…hmmmm…

Brett, remind Gary to also put in some research in the intra-cycle variability. It has been observed before, and again this year…it is a key component.
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Scott,
I will mention that to Gary, in the meantime, nice job applying the LRC to what could be coming down the pike. We are all anxious to see how this plays out.
Brett

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We noticed some very light snow flurries this morning around 8:25am in Overland Park. (129th and Nieman)
It was brief, but was definitely snow!
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Georgia,
Wow, see I wouldn't be surprised if something longer lasting doesn;t happen Saturday morning.
Brett

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This goes down in my book as the weirdest April weather I can ever remember.
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Marlina,
Do you know that it has snowed more days in April than it did all of December.
Brett

I know a lot of people are concerned about snow this weekend and Brett mentioned the record winds on Mount Washington, N.H., in 1934. Here are some other interesting dates:

April 27, 1988 -

observers at the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reported over 7 feet of snowfall in a 10 day period, bringing their total for April to 89.9 inches. This set a new record for April snowfall on the mountain breaking the old standard of 89.3 inches set in 1975. Records have been kept on the summit since December of 1932.

May 10, 1977 -

an unprecedented spring snowstorm, spawned by a huge 5 contour 500 mb cutoff low, hit southern New England and southeastern New York. This storm, which began on the 9th, was an elevation storm. 20 inches of snow fell at Norfolk, Connecticut (elevation 1337 feet) while downtown Hartford received only 1.2 inches. The highest total occurred at slide mountain, New York (elevation 2600 feet) with 26 inches falling. Extensive damage to trees and powerlines occurred with 500,000 people without power following the storm. This was the first may snow in 107 years of records at Boston, Massachusetts although only 1/2 inch fell there. However, in the nearby suburb of Bedford, 9.5 inches fell. Of particular interest is the fact that Concord, New Hampshire received all rain from the storm, demonstrating latitude further north played no role in this snowstorm.

May 26, 1967 -

a slow moving nor'easter battered New England with high winds, heavy rain, and record late season snow on this day and into the 26th. Winds 70 to 90 mph in gusts occurred along the coast. Over 7 inches of rain fell at Nantucket, Massachusetts with 6.57 inches falling in 24 hours to set a new 24 hour rainfall record. Severe damage occurred along the coast from very high tides. 24.9 inches of snow fell at Mount Washington, New Hampshire to set a new may snowfall record. 10 inches of snow fell near Keene, New Hampshire and 6 inches was recorded at Dublin, New Hampshire.

You can look up some interesting weather events around the country on the following site. I hope you enjoy.

http://www.intellicast.com/Almanac/

Matt,
Thanks for the great info.
Brett

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Brett,

Thanks for the answer, I guess I need to mow my grass before I can't see the front door of the house! I have already lost my dog, she is out in the back yard somewhere, but who wants to mow grass when it is 40 degrees and windy? Guess I will see her when it warms-up...and I get to mowing the grass...
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Fred,
Mower, one day...Snow blower the next? Sounds like KC Weather.
Brett

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Brett,
Looking at the cloud movement across the country it appears we may be hard pressed to see sun today, and the storm system is moving pretty quick into the 4 corners with clouds and precip heading our way from the southwest Kansas areas? Is this system developing faster than first thought and is the deepening of it creating the potential for snow earlier in the evening Friday? Thanks
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Keith,
No, its not moving faster but yes the high clouds are returning quicker and that may shunt the warming today.
Brett

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Another thought. I find it so interesting that there is much discussion about the LRC, and at times it seems based on our little world..its easy to assume everyone is aware of it, even if they don’t agree. But it clearly just local with some few exceptions. I was reading another site [not local] and found the following quote –

“…The jet stream moved to a completely new pattern between March and early April, reversing where above average and below average temperatures occurred over North America…�

Without knowing the LRC, I guess I could understand making this statement, but clearly based on the LRC, this is just the cold phase which would appear like the jet moved if you didn’t know ahead of time it was going to happen.

Ammendment to previous blog entry..I said end of June, I should have said end of May.

I know its frowned upon to talk about severe weather more than a day or two out, but I will call my shot for the next round of this storm in the end of May. We will see an amplified version of Feb 25th - March 1st.

Brett..btw..nice graphic in yesterday's entry from Jeff. I like the zoom.

One more question. How much does the team rely on the inhouse models from storm track vs. the other models that we all use? What information is used by storm track to create its models?
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Scott,
We really don't rely solely on the in-house model more than other models, if it appears to be the right one then we will go with it. We make that determination once a storm is visible on satellite on water vapor. Then we can compare the models to see which is verifying the best.
and start looking at nailing down the storm track.

Brett

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Just confirming the above post about snow flurries in Overland Park, I was just outside on my break and it was snowing lightly. 0930CST. Can't wait for "The Storm"-it will be fun to see how it evolves!
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Brett,
Cool, thanks.
Brett

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Hey guys... These cold damp days are getting old. When are we going to see the return of consistent 70 degree temps with some severe weather events? Do you see anything in the models that indicates severe weather in the near future?
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Marc,
Seriously, it could be May before that happens. The LRC suggests more cold weather at the end of the month.
Brett

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"THE STORM"

So, if we get rain Friday night and Saturday, with some snow flakes mixed in...do you consider this a storm? Would you consider it a success of the LRC if we just get rain mixed with snow? Or even an inch of snow on the grass...or two inches that melts within an hour... There are many scenarios about what can happen this weekend.

What would you consider a "success" of the LRC, and what would you consider a "miss?"

Thanks!
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I talked to Jeff this morning about that very thing and we agree that just the track and location of this storm verifies it with the LRC and thus a success.
Brett

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So will snow be an issue north of town? I'm heading to Lincoln on Sat A.M, will I have travel concerns going north? Thanks!
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Jon,
Oddly enough the issue may be closer to KC and not north of downtown, and the street may remain wet, it depends on how hard it snows and its too early to know that. Remember the December snowstorm that cut the city in half. This could be like that.

Brett

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Here's one addition to the almanac link I provided earlier. Imagine that, snow flurries on May 10, 1966 in Kansas City, MO. WOW!!!!

May 10, 1966 -

morning lows of 21 degrees at Bloomington-Normal, Illinois and Aurora, Illinois established a state record for the month of May. Snow flurries were reported At Kansas City, Missouri and Chicago, Illinois.
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Word of caution. Per the strict guidlines of the LRC, local effect of a storm does not go into determining whether the LRC panned out or not. It is the patterns, the ridges, the longwaves and subsequent storm that verifies the LRC. Whether it hits here or somewhere near by does not qualify the success.

Now..that being said, I view the LRC a bit different. I understand the theory, the premises and the factors used to determine it, but I take it a step further in watching the exact storm and subsequent location. From that perspective, without weighing in the cold/warm phases, this could be considered a miss. But, like in my above entry, once looking at the cold and warm phases, this is a direct match to what should have happened based on the current cold phase.

Gary, and maybe the rest of the team will diagree with my application of the LRC, but I still think it applies, though much harder to prove out with maps/plots. I take this application of the LRC, since myself, and the common viewer is more interested with the impact of a storm, vs. if the longwaves/patterns allign.

If I really think about this, the team has propagated an aspect of the effects, though this is a bit against the original theory. To prove this, all of us, including the team are starting to look at "storms, or The Storm" as part of the cycle, which is a local effect opposed to looking at the "longwaves/maps"

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Hi ,
I can't wait till you guys put out a snowfall forcast. I hope that there is at least enough snow to see on the ground when I wake up, or even better , snowing when I wake up! well, do you think there will be any flooding concerns with an inch or more or rain? we have had a lot already and I have seen lots of puddles and all the creeks are full. keep up the great work!

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Brent,

We will likely have a new blog entry between 4:30-5pm today. We want to check out the 18Z NAM before posting a blog about snow potential with the next storm.

Jeremy

wow..I mentioned a few days ago that I was excited about severe weather season but now all this talk about snow, I just want it to SNOW! All the trees and flowers are dead anyway..okay on to the topic. Brett, or whoevers reading today, this storm is obviously a power house(well, it will be). So my question is. Is it possible we could get more then 2 inches of snow out of this and yeah I know everything has to be perfect for april but I really want to know is it POSSIBLE that we could get more than 2 inches? or do you think it would be too hard to get more than that because of the april factor? Thanks!

The 500mbar vorticity seems to be less organized on the latest runs compared to yesterday, but they are still predicting snow possible Fri. night. I hope that it does not cut-off to our south though, although I think the models have the precip. a LITTLE further north than last time. There was also a "stormier" phase of the LRC this year I think like there was a colder phase, so After this "big storm" part moves by, will we be in the stormier phase until after the next "big storm" part of the LRC moves by, or has this shifted a bit like the cold phase did compared to the "big storm"?
Either way I will be watching tomorrow!!!!!
Nick in mostly cloudy, cool St. Joe!!!!