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What really makes this cold wave stand out is the crazy warm March that we had prior, we had lows for many consecutive days that didn't get much below our avg. high, and it was like we were a month into spring, and now we have a cold outbreak just as anomalous as the warm one, it's almost like the twilight zone!
They have freeze warnings all the way to the gulf coast in places, and winter storm warnings deep into Texas, with lake effect snows in the northeast, which is a major stunt since usually the water is as cold as it is going to get in early April so it is amazing to get the set up!!!!!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (Winterlike) St. Joe!!!!

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Nick,

The cold just keeps on coming. At least 50s return to the area by early this week. That should feel good:)

Jeremy

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well Oh Sleet pellets(thats my weather cursing)like I said before if it's gonna be cold it might as well snow. But what are you gonna do? at least we are starting the exciting part of the weather pattern. The NWS was saying something about thursday and Friday of a severe weather threat but Moisture return might not come into play in time what are your thoughts, Jeremy?, Gary?

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Jonathan,

The storm for Tuesday and early Wednesday would likely be rain with no severe weather. The late week storm needs to be watched. Still a long way out...but let's see the 18Z GFS and see which way it is trending. The pattern does get more active for the rest of the month.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,

First off, Happy Easter! Secondly, my daughter and wife don't really like the cold weather, takes away from weather the Easter dresses tomorrow to church and family gatherings. My question is about the rain for next week and after...is it looking like we are going to some precipitation? I could do without snow, but I would like some rain. Previous LRC's would indicate an active weather pattern, is that holding true?

Thanks for your time and have a great day!

Fred

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Fred,

The pattern looks much more active this week with a couple of storms heading our way. The first should bring us mainly rain. I'm hoping that some areas pick up 0.50" to 1.00" of rain this week with the two systems combined. We'll keep you posted on possible rain totals in the next couple of days.

Jeremy

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okay, Jeremy, since I know you don't like snow, does your little hint about next week mean it looks like it's GOING to snow....thus you are NOT very excited about it??!! Like Bill, I'm probably grasping at straws, but I just had to ask!! One last snowstorm sure would be nice!! I'm loving having a fire in the fireplace in April!! Kathleen

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Kathleen,

No I don't like snow...but that doesn't mean I'll ever change the forecast one way or the other. The snow chance looks very small with the early week storm. It does turn colder behind the low, but most of the moisture is out of here by then. To me the late week storm needs to be watched closely.

Jeremy

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Jeremy, I find it interesting that a lot of the records we are breaking were from the mid 1930's considered the dustbowl days, with some of our hottest summers on record. Could a frigid April lead us into a blistering summer? Any thoughts on the long term? Somewhere around 80 would be just fine with me about now! Peace, out. Greg

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Greg,

The sharp warm-ups and cool downs have been lasting within the 45 days cycles. So I think we'll have a month of average or below average temps this summer and one with above average temps. So I don't forsee a dry, and hot summer. Probably one with more ups and downs and around average precip. As long as I'm interpretting the LRC correct, this is what I see.

Jeremy

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I wonder why the NWS in Topeka has yet to issue a freeze warning for the kansas counties. They have been in the cold air mass too. Does each NWS issue warnings differently?

Happy Easter!
David

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David,

Each office is different. Maybe the further one gets west into the Plains the more 'extreme' the weather is climatologically for this time of year. The average freeze date may be a bit later...so they haven't started issuing freeze warnings yet.

Jeremy

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I noticed the average temps for this time of year are mid 60's. Do you think we will at least get back to that soon? I grew up in Northern Michigan and loved the snow in the winter but have been spoiled by Missouri's mild springs. Outside of a good heavy December snow I don't miss it and want it to warm up! Heard Marquette got 33" the other day. Certainly don't miss that this time of year!

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Audrey,

I use to live in Marquette, MI and hated the snow! It was pretty...but when I saw snow on the ground in May that was too much. Marquette has gotten 45" of snow in the past 4 days! Temps may get close to normal by Friday with highs in the 60s...but thunderstorms will also be possible that day.

Jeremy

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"So I think we'll have a month of average or below average temps this summer and one with above average temps"
Ok so which month is going to be below average because that's when I'll take my vacation someplace really hot!

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Jeri,

I don't want to speak out of place...so either ask Gary this question or I will talk to him and get back to you. The LRC should be able to tell you when the 'cooler' summer month may happen.

Jeremy

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Happy Easter Everyone!
We got down to 18 this morning, actually I'm slightly surprised it didn't get any lower since the dewpoints were in the single digits!!
The storm for Tuesday/Wednesday is not looking as impressive as it was a few days ago but the one for later in the week is still looking quite strong. Well maybe one more freeze tonight then we will see!
Nick in (Cold/Sunny) St. Joe!!

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Nick,

I think temps stayed up about 2-4 degrees in most places because the wind never went calm in most spots...and also the cold air has been in place so long it is slowly moderating. Keep in mind the 18 in KC on Saturday was only the 5th time the temp has been in the teens during April. Weather records date back to the late 1800s!

The storm on Tues/Wed. looks to have really no hope of snow. The 850 0C line stays north of here and most of the moisture is east of here before marginally cold enough air arrives to support a few wet flakes. The storm for the end of the week looks much more impressive(for thunderstorms...not snow).

Jeremy

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Interesting blog...first thing, mid week storm is nothing to think about, but the end of the week storm, Jeremy mentioned 3 times to keep an eye on. This is rare for Jeremy. It is the big one per the LRC, and it is showing itself on the GFS.

Forget the last prayer of snow..think about the big storm at the weekend time.

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Scott,

The mid-week storm is looking milder and very likely no snow in the viewing area. Rainfall amounts look tricky too...and probably on the light side.

Gary is going to talk more about the storms for the upcoming week in a blog later today(probably after the 18Z is out). Yes the GFS looks impressive to say the least. But why would it not...we are around day 45 of the cycle! I'm on at 5pm today and then Gary is in for the 10pm show since I'm filling in for Brett in the a.m.

Jeremy

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Per the NWS for our friend this next weekend...

"OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE QUITE INTENSE WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE INTRODUCTION OF A DIFFLUENT 110+KT JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LIFTING WAVE. IN THE WARM SECTOR...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE WITH A DEVELOPING 50KT LLJ AXIS EAST OF THE SFC CYCLONE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE AVAILABILITY OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE WARM SECTOR."

The moisture will arrive. This is the main storm of the cycle, and always pulls it in.

Remember..its still early spring. So long as the upper air support and wind profiles are there..instability is not a huge need for some severe weather setups.

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This should be fun to watch this week!

Jeremy

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This late week storm could be a teeth puller to watch! on another note, i just got back from my parents house in southern Overland Park about 115th and Antioch and their plants just look awful. they have this one particular bush that loses its leaves and then comes back with bright green quarter size leaves every year and it was pretty much in full sprout and they are just burnt brown on top and just limp i dont know how they are going to recover from this. any thoughts on recovery guys?
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Jonathan,

This was such a hard freeze I am sure there is damage. But how much? Well, let's see how everything looks in a few weeks. Those leaves are pretty frozen right now.

Gary

It's been snowing south of Ottawa since around 4:30 thought you might need to know this

Friday the 13th
Jeremy it'snowing! It just turned to very large flakes!!Now the flakes are small.Go figure!Hope it doesn't amount to anything! Have a great day!! MFEMF MFEMFEM