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Jeremy...i'm definitely excited...I betcha there will be a big outbreak of tornadoes somewhere though. but we all know the storm is coming!

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Jonathan,

We'll see what happens, but there should be some active weather between now and then. At least this week looks warmer!

Jeremy

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Jeremy, We are planning on camping in a tent over Memorial Day Weekend. Will the next big storm bring cold or tornados? Should we cancel our trip? Tornados and tents don't mix! :)
Lori

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Lori,

Please don't worry about a possible storm this far out. And I certainly wouldn't cancel any holiday plans yet. We will let you know first our thoughts here on the blog when that date nears.

Jeremy

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I am not very excited. When the the storm that happens every 45 days like Friday and Satruday, St. Joseph is missed every time. There is nothing exciting for St. Joseph, Missouri.

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Kurt,

While you may not have seen the excitement(snow or heavy rain), the storm didn't miss St. Joe. There was around 0.25" of rain Friday into early Saturday.

The next time around the storm may have a different position or look. There will be weather excitement for St. Joe yet this season...hang in there.

Jeremy

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I am little late getting out my total for precip this weekend...sorry. Pleasanton KS recieved 3 inches of rain and just a few flurries.
Monica

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Monica,

That's a lot of rain! Thanks for the report. The band of accumulating snow was very narrow, you just missed it.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
I read on aol that one meteorologist from the NWS says that we could see a storm like this every 25years or so. Do you think that, that could be correct? I just thought that was intresting.

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Alden,

Was the Meteorologist referring to our snow/rain over the Plains and Midwest, or the late season Nor' Easter?

Jeremy

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Well we did get some rain Friday night/ Sat. Morn. we were just too far north for the best cooling from the storm, so the ULL was shifted farther north than it was in December since the precipitation cut-off was to our north.
Actually, every time the big storm has come by Saint Joseph has gotten some precip. with the event, so when it returns in late May, it will have an extremely good chance that it will be wet here, since it will probably be further north and it will be occurring on or near the wettest day of the year climate wise!
hard to believe, less than 48 hours ago it snowed 5 inches 70 miles to my south, and today I was helping my parents to yard work and mowing the lawn!!!!!
Nick in (sunny/mild) St. Joe!!!

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Nick,

Even the day it snowed to your south it was around 50 degrees in St. Joe. You were just a little to far north again. I'm sure there will be many more chances for exciting weather between now and the end of May for you.

Jeremy

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Ok, guys what just happened.

At 2:45 PM we had a 31 MPH wind gust roll through here. Leaves and stuff swirling everywhere.

After which all calmed back down to like it had been before, as in a gentle breeze from the W to NW.

Don't recall any fronts being in the area, and the sky was and still is 100% blue.

All in all very odd.

Bob

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Bob,

The automated weather station in Lawrence reported sustained winds of 10-14 mph from late morning into the afternoon. Then around 1pm it registered a wind gust of 20mph. Winds as of 3-4pm are variable at 6mph.

Not sure how to explain what you described...maybe a very localized effect from terrain or just mixing down of the winds from above the surface.

Jeremy

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Jeremy..do you know what date/part of the cycle you are considering the start of a cycle? Seems like it starts/ends about a week after the last big storm.

Team, are you guys logging this at a daily level and seeing the trends there as well, or are you just logging the 500 maps? So much as the 500s show you something, I think the surface maps will too. I think as we are getting more storm specific, the surface maps will be more valuable in showing the LRC and long range cycles as it hits the ground...just an idea.

As far as Memorial Day...well...the cycle is nearly exactly 45 days now. Over Memorial Day weekend, we will see rain..but it is the storm that we had prior to this last one. It is usually 3-4 days prior to the "storm". The first one is pretty interesting in its own right, as it puts out a nice sat image after it intensifies just to the E/NE of us. No, Memorial Day weekend will not have the lion's share of the outbreak..it will be later in the middle of the week, May 30th

Lets see how finite we can get the LRC. We better get all the surface observations/storm discussions out of the way as it relates to the LRC. Gary will not be happy as he has said he isn't sure about this level of LRC connection. We all know its there, though.... ;-)

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Scott,

I guess I'm not sure exactly where the cycle begins and ends. I always use the 'big storm' part of the cycle as reference. I think Gary or Jeff could give you a better idea of the exact start day of each cycle.

I know Gary will share more of his comments in the coming days relating to the LRC. He is back to work on Monday.

Just on a side note, I have several friends that are Meteorologists around the country that are eager to hear more about the LRC. I told them in December the dates of the January, February, and April part of the cycle that corresponds to the 'big storm' for the Midwest. One of my friends is even going to see Gary's presentation at the NWA conference in October.

Jeremy

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Weather Team,
I'm starting to get worried about the storm that is going to be next weekend. I know it's far out, but do you think there is going to be a tornado outbreak here?
Thanks
Freddie

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Freddie,

Please don't get worried yet. Severe weather is tricky to forecast the day of, let alone a week out. There is a decent ULL near the Midwest on Sunday. But we'll have to keep tracking the trend of its position and also the timing of any possible storms to help determine the severe weather risk. Right now the precip. chance is at 20%, but of the 3 rain chances this week, next Sunday may be the 'best' chance.

Jeremy

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Evening Jeremy, yes Memorial Weekend may be really stormy. Every one-two weeks or so within the LRC we would get a chance for rain but yes I understand how the cycle works. Now we will get a warm up, Gary was mentioning one more cold snap, wouldn't that occur in the next 10-14 days? Here in Berryton we got a little snow on the grass and our outside cars were covered with snow. Officially in my rain gauge there was 1.9 inches. Thanks for your good information. Take care, Mike/Berryton/Topeka area

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Mike,

Thanks for the report! The last possible 'frost/freeze' may occur around the last week of April(so basically 10-14 days). This will depend on if the cold front pushes well south of us and skies are clear and winds are light. A freeze that late is tough, but we will continue to track the possibility.

After a cold April it looks like above average temps will return for a majority of May. Which I will welcome!

Jeremy

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I am beginning to think it is possible now to forecast without looking at the models. Based on the last cold part of the phase that hooks up with a week from April 22nd [per the blog entry above showing a storm next weekend], here is what should happen per Gary's entry on Jan 21st.

"One of the bloggers asked if the weather pattern that produced this snowstorm lined up with 42 days ago or so. I looked and it was amazing, there was an upper low on December 11th over northern Kansas on the Nebraska border, in about the same spot the upper low moved through early this morning. It only produced drizzle in December as there was no cold air in place the last time through."

Now one lesson we have learned is the previous storm mentioned 42 days earlier, would have been the warm phase. Much like the lesson we learned this last week, we have to go back to the cycle of the same phase..or in this case..the cold phase 90 days before Jan 21s to see if we see a trend.

Ok..one moment before the amazing visual..ok.

1. Look at the map for this upcoming weekends storm. - GFS 18z 174hr - 4/22

2. Look at the map in the blog entry for Jan 19th for the storm coming on 1/21

3. Look at the map in the blog entry for Oct. 23rd for 10/26

4/22 - 1/21 = 91 days.
1/21 - 10/26 = 87 days

EACH OF THESE MAPS LOOK THE SAME!

With the LRC cycling between 42-45 days, this is perfect.

Food for thought..Gary..is it possible that the cold phase and the warm phase have a different cycle time? Say, one at 42 days and another at say..45 days?

This is just one in depth look at the maps for three cycles. More needs to be done to show each cooresponding day to each of the other related cycles. This is..well to quote Gary - Amazing.

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Scott,

Thanks for the insight! If we can forecast the 'big storm' part of the LRC without using the models, I guess why not for other features? Gary picked up on the freezes weeks out by looking at the LRC and this past weekends storm in December, why not the ULL tracking through the region this upcoming Sunday? I guess the more we learn about the LRC the more we will put it to use. Defining the warm and cold phases and the local effects on each wave is where the short term models still come into play and are needed for short term forecasts. But look at this past weekend. The snow lined up basically where the November 28 snow fell. And the February heavy rain and severe weather was also over basically the same area! Is this connected? I'd say this is much more than just by 'chance'.

Jeremy

I'm sure when Gary reads this he'll post his thoughts too. I expect a nice LRC blog sometime this week going over a few things.

Jeremy