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Good morning Gary,
I just moved to Kansas City and I was wondering when people talk about the location of the city alot of people call where we're located different places. Such as "The Midwest" or "The mid Mississippi Valley" or "The Plains". So what is the correct term?
Thank You
David
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David,

We are really in the middle of what we can call the "heartland" of the United States. But, some consider us the midwest, although we are on the edge of this classification, and some call us the great plains states. So, what is it? What do you bloggers think?

Gary

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havent been on the blog in while...FREEZE??? darnit. no chance of moderation huh? I guess it'll make my allergies better but. Do you think that the trees that are budding out now will be harmed or affected this year because of this??
and i remember back on February 28th we were all in fear of a major tornado out break the first or 2nd week of april because of the fearce storm that happened on the 28th. Is that kind of fallin apart on us? it wouldn't disappoint me terribly but maybe if a smaller show of storms showed itself would be nice. Keep it up guys!
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Jonathan,

The weather pattern continues to cycle and it is around 45 days per cycle with every other cycle being more similar. So, this is very similar to what happened in December into January. So, that big storm is VERY likely, and I am hoping it holds off until at least the 15th so I can get my visit in with my mom for her 70th birthday. It is due sometime around the 12th to the 17th. So, hopefully it holds off. The models have been showing hints of it, but just like this next cold spell the LRC is better than the computer models by far. We have known about the potential for a late freeze in April for months now, just based on my theory. So, the skeptics, well? We are still in the "same" pattern!

The damage could be significant if we have a very hard freeze like near 20 degrees. The closer to 30 we get the less damage will occur. If anyone is an expert on horticulture and knows what kind of damage could be done let us know. I will do more research myself for the newscasts this week.

Gary

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Gary, we are getting sod today - I know, great timing now that all the rain is over. But I was wondering if April looks any bit like March with the rain about every week. Mark
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Mark,

It will probably rain just about every week, but there will be these cold fronts and it could be fairly dry for a while.

Gary

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Gary,
To answer the previous bloggers question I would conclude that we are in the Great Plains region because we are along and west of the Missouri River. However, our climate is much warmer than that found in the Midwest. Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana are states that constitute the core of the Midwest. These states are much less effected by compressional warming that often occurs in the plains states at any time of the year. The climate in these areas is significantly cooler than our climate as well. The Midwest also experiences more consistent precipitation throughout the year while the plains receives most of the precipitation during the core growing season.
Also, I am looking forward to the colder part of the pattern because March was extremely warm compared to average. The March temperatures that we had were more normal for Tulsa than Kansas City.
Devin

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> We are really in the middle of what we can call the "heartland" of the United States. But, some consider us the midwest, although we are on the edge of this classification, and some call us the great plains states. So, what is it? What do you bloggers think?

**OZ**

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Gary,
What will be the timing of these severe storms(if they happen)? And what will the main theat be? Thanks, Robin
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Robin,

Don't worry about this situation. There is a slight chance around 7 AM as the front moves through.

Gary

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Looking at the RUC soundings..the cap is eroding. Still significant, but about half of what it was this morning. Still have a ways to go, but heading that way. Also..seeing a bit more lift as the front nears. Dunno..tough to get excited about this as I look out the window.

Now..looking at the SREF SPC products, it looks possible for this evening. I see 30kt sheer, helicity of around 100 [0-1Km], MUCAPE of over 1000, upper 50s dewpoints surging in, and Cravens values of 20k ish. etc...hmmmm. Upper air support is marginal. Ok at the top, but kinda weak from the 500 on down.

Discrete cells at best.

Ok..now that I have that out of my system...thought it might be a bit boring for the next week [oh boy, a freeze.], but picking up again around mid month as advertised.
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Scott,

Thunderstorms may form well after dark.

Gary

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Midwest is correct:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwest
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Linda,

But, we have some other definitions as well.

Gary

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I would say that we fit in with "the plains", "the midwest", or "the heartland".

Mark

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Well, the late May time warp continues, but the clock is ticking...
With light winds today the near 80 degree temps feel really warm especially in the sun, well at least the dandylions will get theirs in a few days, but unfortunately it will be rocky for the other flowering plants too.
I can see a weak warm front pushing north on the RAP weather Data website with light easterly winds in N. MO, Neb., IA., with southerly winds working their way northward, I think I see low 90's in Northwest OK.!!
Here in St. Joe it has been mostly sunny with a few shards of altocumulus/ altostratus forming and becoming more widespread, the visible satellite loop concurs with my visual observations, so it appears that something wants to form but the cap will probably stop it, although it will be interesting to see.
Also the RUC has 850 millibar winds increasing to 50 to 60 knots out of the southwest later tonight so I wonder if that will have any effect.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in(very warm/Partly cloudy) St. Joe!!!!

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I'd say we're on the northern edge of the "South." KC culture & climate seem much more intertwined with or similar to places like Atlanta, Raleigh, Oklahoma City, etc., than say Chicago, Denver, or Minneapolis. There isn't a "snow-pack" here in the winter, and summers are long, hot, & humid. We even had less than three inches of snow in calendar-year 2006. I've heard KC often referred to as "Heartland" or "Plains" as well.

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GAry, Gary, Gary!!!!! A woman does not like her age declared!!!!! However, once you reach 70, I guess it is ok. Haven'theard you talk of you Mom for a while. Hope you have a great visit. I know you were disappointed when you relatives couldn't get here last fall. Nothing like family!
I wrote Jeramy for some information on Madison as we are going there for a wedding. He sent a fabulous email back to me and I know I will love Madison. He even told me of some local things to do and I so appreciate it. I will write him when I get back.
Debbie
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Debbie,

Oh, I meant my mom is 39, again! But, then she would be younger than me.

Gary

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I held off on planting my flowers this year because you said months ago that their is a very good chance of a late freeze. Glad I listened....I told my mother in law and my mom that too. We all say "thank you" for the heads up!!! Enjoy the day...it is nice!!!
Monica
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Monica,

Yep, here it comes, and there could be another one after mid April.

Gary

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Gary,
Thanks for responding. Hope you are having a good day. Looking foward to seeing more pictures of your dogs.
Thanks,
Robin
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Robin,

Maybe I will get a couple of new pictures later this week.

Gary

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Gary,

I thought the blog was going to go back to what it used to look like by the end of March? I really don't like the new look...
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Suzanne,

I have been promised that it will be back by Friday.

Gary

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KC is nothing like either raleigh or atlanta in culture or climate. even the way that the cities are built are different. KC has really no humidity to speak of compared to atl. or raleigh. i know that seems like a stretch but i moved here three years ago from atl, theres a huge difference. KC is much more like chicago and minneapolis than atl and raleigh. check out the seasonal averages at your favorite weather almanac. ironically, its actually considerably hotter here than in atl or raleigh. you can count the number of times it has hit 100 in atlanta since records were kept with 2 hands, wheras here you average 4 100+ days a year, along with 44 days of 90+ temps. I love the weather here. You get all four seasons, the summers are hot, but you always get a break in the heat by sometime in august. it may get hot again but those breaks from the heat are awesome. plus snowfall aside, KC and chicago's night time temps in the winter only differ by a couple degrees. and we all know looking back from jan 15 through february that winter is no joke here. the weather down south is boring in comparison to here. not to mention that the meteorologists couldnt hold a candle compared to gary or the others because it doesnt require much accumen to get the forcast right down there. we are lucky to have the weather guys that we have. in conclusion, the only thing that disappoints me about the weather here is the overall lack of annual precipitation. it amazes me how long we go without rain sometimes. especially here in leavenworth, we always seem to get skipped over. :(
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Murphy,

Well, our humidity certainly compares to Atlanta, but I agree with most of your points.

Gary

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I grew up in Alabama where summer starts in May and can last (albeit in fits and starts) into November. Summer here is a breeze compared with there. I also lived in Salt Lake City 6 years and that's the only place I can truly say I loved Summer AND Winter. There wasn't much of a Spring or Fall, though. Winter here seems to last longer than Summer, but we do have lovely Springs and Falls, thank goodness.

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Gary:

Good Beautiful May afternoon in March to you Sir-what a great day for opening day at the K!!!!

Lawrence recieved some very benficial rains this past week-I will take more for sure, but it was sure nice!!!!

Well, I saw you mention the Thursday night " " (do I dare say it??) possibility and had to Blog-of course I did!!!!! The word flakes were mentioned were they not?? The GFS has been hinting at this possibility since last Friday I think-I don't hold much stock in it, however, I must say that the set up is condusive for us to see a few flakes for this time of year-a strong cold front and then a weak disturbance comming across-ok, back to reality!!!!

I would not be surprised at all, not counting on it, but not surprised at all if a weak disturbance were to form on this temp. gradient that a few flakes could be mixed in with some lt. rain. Weather it is a cold rain, a mix, or just sunny and 45, it is still interesting to kind of watch!!!!

Thanks for reading and have a great night!!!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

Yes, the chance is there. But, I don't really see it yet. Let's see if something truly shows up on Tuesday for Thursday's chance of """"""snow""""".

Gary

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hi Gary, Do you think that a hard freeze will ruin the fruit on the fruit trees?
And I see there is a chance of snow on thursday night?! wow that would really ruin my garden I think. Maybe I should put blankets over the rows. Is there any chance that it won't get quite that cold?
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Brent,

Snow would help insulate the ground, but it is unlikely. We will have to see if we are near 32 or lower for the types of damage that could occur.

Gary

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I have to disagree with Drew on his interpretation of KC's climate. I grew up in Raleigh, NC and moved to KC from Atlanta 6 years ago. While we don't have the snow pack, it is definitely colder and windier here than those locations during the winter. In the summer, I feel it is more humid there and they always get the afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

With that said, I'll put a vote in for the Plains - now the question is the northern plains or southern plains?
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Bobby,

It would have to be the central plains!

Gary

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Do you think it will be after the end of April before our cold spells come to an end?
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Marlina,

No, but even if it warms up in between I expect one more good chance of a freeze between the 15th and 30th.

Gary

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Gary,
I nearly jumped completely out of my skin when I read the following out of Pleasant Hill. This is out of the forecast discussion - long term.

"DAY 4 THROUGH 8 PERIOD IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF LATE JAN/EARLY
FEB MAKES AN UNWELCOMED RETURN VISIT."...

How could they possibly indicate a return/cycling of a pattern without accepting the LRC???? Especially the way this was written and the specifics of the last cycle.

Shhhh...the others are listening....
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Scott,

LOL, big smile, wow!

Gary

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Hey Gary,
I'm not sure I like your LRC because I'm really afraid of severe weather and since you can forecast things so far ahead, it makes me worry about it that much longer. Don't get me wrong, I know it's your job and you're the best in the business, but I just needed to vent. I'm alrady worried about this storm that's coming in the middle of this month. Maybe I should just pick up and move to Montana!
Heather
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Heather,

There are always chances of severe weather. But, the LRC helps us know in advance when a big chance may or may not be there. See, this cold front is good because the threat of severe weather goes down and we knew it was coming.

Gary

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I believe the NWS classifies this region as the Central Plains. Check this link:

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/centplains.php

So, Gary, any chance of flurries during the day game Thursday?
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Rick,

Probably not. We will have to see if it is cold enough.

Gary

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This must be my day of nearly jumping out of my skin. In addition to the previous blog, in my ongoing touching base in the tropics, here are some notable quotes from Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi's [Accuweather]most recent notes on the upcoming hurricane season...

"4) Perceived large-scale pattern. I believe there is a greater driver to the tropical season than we are looking at now. My forecast method involves ascertaining how the pattern around North America acts in the transition season of the spring against where the overall pattern is across the Northern Hemisphere and trying to match up the best analog years of both together, then bringing in modeling ideas on the summer"
and fall."

OMG. This falls directly in line with the theory I share in thinking that there is a co-joined relationship between the hurricane season and the off season that we call the..um...LRC. Granted, none of the above relates directly to the LRC, but it shows that others are looking for more large scale relationships much like the LRC in conceptual basis. He is seeking an analog answer, which is in direct contrast to the LRC. I guess Mr. Bastardi is not aware of the LRC yet.

The next quote dropped me. This is what Gary has iterated over and over...

"5) I believe the El Nino was the driven, not the driver of the pattern last year. I believe there is entirely too much hype surrounding El Nino and La Nina. A strong La Nina is one that has been associated with storms staying south of the United States for one, and the years of most intensity in relation to our nation are many times not a La Nina. I, for one, am tired of everyone blaming the two for whatever goes on. If they are strong and driven from other sources (i.e.volcanic activity, then the corresponding turn back) that is one
thing. However, this is getting entirely out of hand and is almost a disservice. You can't, in one breath, blame El Nino last year for shutting the hurricane season down when the '04 was a far stronger one in the heart of the season and wound up beating on the U.S. like a rented mule. So unless they are overpowering my arguments, it is the
larger scale is more important."

Gary - meet Joe. Joe - Gary.
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Scott,

I have met Joe. And, he was at the conference when I made my presentation. So, he is very aware of the LRC, he just hasn't embraced it yet.

Gary

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Gary,
Growing up in the northeast, we always looked at this area as the Midwest. I have to say, however, that it's interesting perspectives on climate. Last summer a lot of my co-workers were complaining that it was "really humid". It was 53 percent that day. I called my mother in Connecticut and she said the weather was nice that day. The humidity was "only 73 percent".
I would love to see a "real" winter here. We've only seen around 35 inches of snow in three winters here. Ten years ago yesterday we were shovelling out 33 inches from the April Fools Blizzard of 1997. The nice part was the plows knew how to handle it and our street was cleared within three hours after the storm had passed.
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Matt,

One of these years. This was almost a real winter, but one that ends in February can not be called a real winter.

Gary

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Wasn't one of Mr. Englands biggest claims developing doppler, and using it for warnings?

You are the grandfather of the LRC, and are using it for forecasts...just imagine what will happen when people begin giving you credit for what they are already quitely using today!

Remind me..which conference did you present it in?
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Scott,

It was at the joint Broadcast and Weather and Forecasting AMS conference in 2005. Gary England used to issue his own warnings MANY years ago.

Gary

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Gary, why all the fuss? Our average last freeze date is April 15th. Yes, I know many of you are praying for snow, you better pray hard because in 40 years I can count on one hand how many times I've actually "seen" it in April! Heck it could'nt have been more than 5 or 6 years ago we had one of these cool snaps the first part of May! Point is evrybody just "chill" for a few days, LITERALLY. Hey, call me crazy, but I bet before long it gets HOT! How about them ROYALS!!!! Peace out, Greg.
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Greg,

March was the 3rd warmest in Kansas City history. So, a cold spell just seems out of place for many people. But, it is normal for this to happen. Hopefully it won't be a hard freeze.

And, the Royals are 1 and OH!

Gary

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I had written a long comment and then my server didn't want to let it connect arrrrg!!!!!!!
Well here is a summary of all my typing that I lost...
My vote for our region would be the heartland but if you wanted to get picky, then west of the state line is "the plains" and east of the line is the "midwest" and we are in the middle.
As for our climate, we don't really fit in with any of the other geographical names since we are right in the middle, actually I don't believe that our ave climate is a good indicator of our environment since depending on the weather pattern at any given year we could literally be like any of those climates for a period of time for example, last year "2006" we weather wise "were" the southern plains tornado outbreaks in March and hardly and winter at all, some years we could act like the south, or we could have a pattern that would give us a midwestern climate for a while. In short since we are right in the middle our climate is dictated more on what the weather pattern is at the time and that the ave climate for our area is more of a stat that doesn't reflect what we truly experience very well.
Nick in (still 70+) St. Joe!!!!!
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Nick,

I hate it when that happens. It never ends up the same as you originally wrote, but it looks like you remembered well. We should be called the "heartland".

Gary

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I've been up since 4:30 A.M. or so and it has been raining steady here in Leavenworth. Hearing some thunder and some frequent flashes of light going on. How long do you think this will last, just asking, wouldnt mind a day off,lol.
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Jesse,

The cold front will blow through and the rain will shut off soon.

Gary