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"The April Weather Pattern"
Good Monday morning everyone,
An area of snow on Live ESP is moving across early this morning. Some snow has been reported, but most of it is aloft.
A storm system approaches our area. It is much more disorganized than it looked Friday, or even yesterday. It is going to be a challenging forecast for the first half of this week. We will be having extensive details on our newscasts through Tuesday on these developments, so please watch NBC Action News for the most accurate forecast. And, there is a very strong storm likely by the end of the week, that will move out of the Rockies and into the plains.
I know if you are a regular blogger and read this often then you knew we would have this cold April, and the middle of the month storm. I am about to write an article about my theory, the LRC, and I am planning on making a presentation at the NWA meeting in Reno this fall. But, I have a lot of work to do before I am ready. I really need a few weeks off to research this, but as you know I can’t do that. This weather pattern has been fascinating, but every year is fascinating in its own way. We thought, back in October and November, that this would be a good year for you, the weather enthusiast. Oh, there have been frustrations this past winter. This pattern could have easily have produced 40 inches of snow this season. A few of the big storm systems just missed us to the north at the end of the winter. But, in the end it was still entertaining and fun and this season's pattern will likely be the focal point of my latest presentation on the LRC.
The cold part of the pattern has returned. We are in a 45 day cycle this year, but I also believe there is a cold phase and warmer phase of the pattern. So, every other cycle has been cold and the others warmer. October, when the pattern set up, had a long cold spell. The same pattern returned in January, 90 days later (45 times 2), and again now, 90 days later again. Watch out in July, 90 days from now when everyone else will be saying summer is here for good. Remember, we believe this pattern continues, but in a weakened state during the summer before falling apart late in July or August. Forecsting summer weather is not something I have even spent much time at, but because of a few of the bloggers out there we have been using the LRC and it has been phenomenal in our forecasting results.
As you see in Jeremy’s blog entry yesterday, this has been the longest April cold stretch below 30 degrees for lows in Kansas City history. Wow! That is an amazing record. And, today’s low of 20 tied the Easter record for coldest Easter morning since 1910. The other 20 degree mornings occurred when Easter Sunday was on a date earlier than today. We aren’t done yet. The coldest part of the pattern is right on schedule and we will likely see more freezes during the second half of April. How strong will the cold fronts be? Well, it is getting later and later, but just looking back in late January into February at the weather pattern and we can see that some of these cold fronts will be quite strong. The LRC continues and it will continue to help us tremendously in our long and short term forecasts. And, the “big storm� part of the pattern is also right on schedule. The next two weeks appear favorable for the middle part of the nation to be majorly affected by a series of storm systems. Snow is still not out of the question either, however as every day goes by the potential will be less and less. Even though a late snow is possible, these storm systems will at the very least bring us the significant rain that seemed to miss us most of last year. Hopefully the flowers and trees will recover after this killing freeze did rather obvious damage.
Have a great start to the week. New data is rolling in and we will likely be updating the forecast as Tuesday into Wednesday appears tricky before the bigger end of the week storm approaches.
Gary
Posted by at April 8, 2007 6:16 PM
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Gary, so what are you saying, we're going to have record setting cold temps in JULY! How does this line up with the global warming debate? I asked Jeremy this over the weekend, any thoughts? Peace, out. Greg
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Greg,
This is not really what I am saying, but this part of the pattern will be occuring in July. But, in a very weak state. So, if the cold fronts are strong enough then we will notice. It is certainly something to watch as we move into summer.
When our weather pattern set up we saw most of the energetic flow on our side of the globe. Even though we are having a cold April, overall the globe is still having a warmer than average year again.
Gary
Posted by: Greg at April 8, 2007 6:58 PM
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Gary and Weather Team,
When does it look like we will have some Severe Weather? I am looking forward to a spring filled with storm spotting opportunities.
Ryan
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Ryan,
There is potential on Friday. But, as usual, let's see how it looks in a few days.
Gary
Posted by: Ryan at April 8, 2007 6:59 PM
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Ah Oh I smell the End of the Week outbreak of storms! Happy Easter! And nobody forget the true meaning of Easter. "He Lives"!
Posted by: Andrew at April 8, 2007 8:11 PM
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Hey Gary,
I'm just learning how to read maps and I was wondering, at this point in time, does it look like we are going to be in the triple point on the 13th? And this far out do maps change all that much?
Fiona
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Fiona,
I will answer your last question first. Yes, this far out the maps change a lot. The models have a triple point somewhere near by right now, but let's see how it looks later in the week.
Gary
Posted by: Fiona R. at April 8, 2007 8:44 PM
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G-man: As you know, you finally made me a believer in the LRC back in February when the late February storm arrived right on time. Looking forward back then, the LRC projected the next big storm on or around Easter weekend. Where is it? I've not returned to the "doubter" camp...but...isn't the storm for this coming Friday about a week late?
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Craig,
Well, it is just amazing that the storm is heading our way. And, it is right on schedule. Maybe you had in your mind Easter weekend, but we always targeted the 13th to 15th of the month, and here it comes.
Gary
Posted by: Craig at April 8, 2007 8:45 PM
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Weather Team-
The NWS is already calling for isolated tornadoes on Friday afternoon and evening. Does it look to you guys like a good possibility is already there, or are they jumping the gun?
Thanks
Bill
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Bill,
The NWS is not calling for isolated tornadoes. Maybe there is a chance but no one is saying there "WILL" be isolated tornadoes this far out. The storm could be slower, track further south, be weaker, track further north, etc.
Gary
Posted by: Bill at April 8, 2007 8:56 PM
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I am almost giggly about Friday. I have the day off, will be down in Franklin county for some of the day, and hope to have some spotting opportunities. Still too far out, but I like the location of the ULL, and subseqent surface low. Very nice upper level support [notice-we are right in the jet streak!], sheer and lift should be working, helicity will be there...just wonder if we will have any instability...I only need about 500 J/Kg..but would prefer closer to 1000..but not sure we will get it. Tems will be between 15-20C.
This should be a triple point storm with a nice dry line...OKC may be in the mix as well...
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Scott,
It is beginning to seriously take the look of "the storm" in the cycle. If it is we have to look for it to slow down a bit, and it could end up going further south. A lot to track this week.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at April 8, 2007 9:42 PM
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Its amazing all the places that have seen snow with this cold outbreak, and yet St. Joe didn't see a flake!
I mean, Dallas, Atlanta,Virgina Beach, EVEN MOBILE ALABAMA reported a few sleet/ snow flakes this morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But I'm not going to complain too much we have more chances of action this year weather wise!
The plants though, they really have taken a beating!
Nick in (still cold) St. Joe!!!!
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Nick,
Temps will start in the 20s in many locations this morning. After this, I don't see any freezing temps in the forecast thru at least Friday. Hopefully the plants/trees can recover!
Jeremy
Posted by: Nick Rau at April 8, 2007 10:39 PM
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Gary,
You mentioned that this cold weather pattern which has set up in 90 intervals could hit but with a weakened state in July. What are you thinking right now? Highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's? That would be down right frigid for July but would seem like heaven right now. :)
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Brian,
It is too difficult to say. The same pattern could have cold fronts stall near by and we could end up with some significant rain. We are just going to have to wait and see how it sets up. The same weather pattern often brings different specific results. In July the flow aloft will be much weaker as it is summer time, but I firmly believe that the same weather pattern will still be cycling so as storm systems move across Canada some cold fronts should make it to Kansas City.
Gary
Posted by: Brian at April 9, 2007 6:38 AM
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Weather Report 0733cst - College and Lowell, Just west of Metcalf about a mile. - Snowflakes (flurries/snowshowers) are falling!!! I am not seeing things either! -April 9th, 2007.
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Brett,
Snow is falling! Thanks for the report. This area of snow will pass through during the next two hours.
Gary
Posted by: Brett at April 9, 2007 7:35 AM
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Hi Gary and the weather team, light flurries are falling here in the Topeka area this morning. This pattern is amazing for me ot record and watch. It definitely falls right into your LRC theory. This cold weather facinated me every morning this week. I would walk outside and just was amazed. So Gary as the cycle goes, we are due for a warmer stretch? Do you expect one more "cold outbreak"? Would the next big storm after this weekend if it storms and doesn't go south, would it be the end of May? Thanks, Michael Topeka/Berryton
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Michael,
We will be in the cooler part of the weather pattern for a while. Some ups and downs will continue and there is a good chance of another freeze within the next week or two. But, eventually it has to warm up.
Gary
Posted by: michael huffman at April 9, 2007 7:44 AM
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What's the saying, "It'll be a cold day in July"? LOL :)
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Christi,
You made me laugh this morning. Yes, that is the saying!
Gary
Posted by: Christi at April 9, 2007 8:45 AM
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Gary,
We had a few flurries in the Shoal Creek area this morning. Not many, but I saw a few while getting out to my car this morning.
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Matt,
Thanks for the report! Still a few flurries around on LIVE ESP.
Jeremy
Posted by: Matt P at April 9, 2007 9:25 AM
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Good Morning Gary!
It's snowing here in Leavenworth! My four year old looked out the window and said "It's snowing? That's crazy talk!" Crazy or not, we're having light flurries!
Janine
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Janine,
Thanks for the update! April 9 and there's snow around...strange.
Jeremy
Posted by: Janine at April 9, 2007 9:40 AM
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Good Morning Guys!! Love your blog. My son and I read it several times a day!! I am going to Branson the middle of next week, will it be warmer or should I take my winter clothes?? Thanks!!
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Robin,
Everyday has some complications to the forecast. Thursday and Friday have the potential to be in the 60s.
Gary
Posted by: Robin at April 9, 2007 10:27 AM
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The GW debunking continues... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17997788/site/newsweek/
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Frank,
We just read this article and it definitely is another point of view. It is still dangerous territory to abandon the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emmisions. How much warmer will we get, or will it be balanced by natural causes? We just don't know.
Gary
Posted by: Frank at April 9, 2007 11:46 AM
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Another stations blog of Friday says: "I think the results will be a huge flip to much, much warmer air by around the 18th to 20th. We may see record highs to end the month." It will be interesting to see which one of you is closer since you seem to be saying it will stay cold the rest of the month if I am reading this correctly and understood what you were saying on TV last night. Keep up your good work.
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Chris,
I am certain it will warm up between now and the end of the month. It has to as May is approaching and the days are longer. The weather pattern is still the same one, however and another freeze is likely and the cold fronts will still be fairly regular. We didn't set one record high in March. There is always a chance of a record high somtime as a storm approaches, but we have been setting record lows just as we thought could happen weeks ago.
Gary
Posted by: Chris at April 9, 2007 12:25 PM
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I know I have pointed it out before, and I will never point it out again after this, but it really looks like sloppy graphics works when your Today's forecast and your 7 day forecast don't match. And pretty much everyday, they don't match. Today's highs shows as 50 on Today's graphic and as 52 for the week. That just really bugs me about your website. Which one is more accurate, the Today's graphic or the 7 day? I never which one to believe, and yes 2 degrees is almost nothing, but somedays it differs by more than that.
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Kimberly,
In today's case the numbers are suppose to match...and I'm not sure why the 7 day is incorrect. I was using graphics all morning long that had 50 for a high on both graphics. I guess the 7 day didn't transfer to the web for some reason when the graphics were updated.
Please keep in mind the 7 day and the day planner sometimes won't match. The day planner shows 3 different hourly temperatures. In a case where the high occurs between say noon and 4pm, the numbers won't match exactly. Hopefully you understand what I'm trying to say. We always do our best to get things to line up though.
Jeremy
Posted by: Kimberly at April 9, 2007 12:51 PM
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Hey Gary,
Well I did a lot of map checking today. It looks like today is the same as Feb 21st, Jan 8th, Nov 23rd. We are looking good and right on track. I want to see it in Reno.
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Doug,
We must do the presentation! The cycle continues.
Gary
Posted by: Doug Heady at April 9, 2007 4:49 PM
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