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Jeff,
Are you a good dancer? Because you just danced around the snow question real well.
So, how much is possible?
thanks ryan
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Ryan,

I took ballroom dancing in college, but it did not help much.

Now to the snow. It really is tough when you are 2-3 days away, especially in April. All I can say that accumlation is looking more likely with each passing model run. Tomorrow is the day when we can start estimating amounts.

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All I can say is wow! This is incredible weather. Snow in April? I can't wait! I hope it pans out, although I feel for the plants, they're really taking a hit this year.

Off topic a little, last night you mentioned a new blog format. Is this coming out soon?

David
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David,

It should be up Monday. Actually, if there is snow coverning the plants it will help out of we have a hard freeze Saturday night.

Jeff

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What about the significant warm-up prior to the previous storms...where was that in this 'cycle'?

What about the February storm - it dwarfed this one.

I read that the late-April freeze that you're forecasting fits the cycle very well - but how? Which dates correspond to it?

When I compare 500mb charts (or others) to previous parts of your "cycle", I get some similiarities for this part of the country, but radical differences for others.

Where did yesterday's even line up? I don't see any like it 45, 90, or 135 days ago.
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Jake,

In those storms it got cold after the storm. We have noticed through the years, that sometimes things repeat in reverse order, but then return to the correct order. It is hard to explain & that is why it is a theory.

There are differences at times in other parts of the country. Somtimes other features repeat so weak or much stronger that they look different & sometimes there are phase shifts.

Yesterday's system lines up with January 7-8. They look very similar.

I hope this helps.

Jeff

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Jeff

This is truly amazing. If this all pans out, this really could be historic by APRIL standards. I can only imagine how much Gary is banging his head against the wall right now with having to go to California for his mother. I know he is doing the right thing, but man, this has to be killing him.
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Adam,

Yeah, he is not thrilled, but if it is 1-2" then he will be able to handle it.

Jeff

It is looking like it will be very exciting to track and we should see some snow. We should have figured the snow chances would go up once Gary left town!!!

After this cold windy day, we deserve one last shot of snow. What a crazy Winter/Spring it has been, but all expected, thanks to the LRC.

Keep up the great work

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WOW! This is exciting! I knew "The Storm" was coming... I knew thanks to LRC months ago... but was not expecting snow, more like heavy rain/storms. I never posted much because I didnt have internet in the middle of nowhere. Well, this will be interesting because during November I lived in McLouth, KS, and ... not one flake. I was mad. I recently moved to Lees Summit- hmmm, It better not hit McLouth KS this time or I am seriously snow jinxed. I know its all up in the air, but I see the potential, plus it's "The Storm". Vacation starts for me Friday.... same as in November, isnt that strange. Hopefully this time I will see some action. Gary's theory and your stations forecasting is absolutely amazing! I have explained to everyone at work today, again... this is the storm from November, as I have explained Gary's theory, over and over and over....its starting to make me look like a weatherman..haha, I always make sure and tell everyone Gary and the team are a weather forecasting machine. Look forward to seeing your forcast 5pm.
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Brett,

Thanks for the comments, it amazes us everyday.

Jeff

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Good Late Afternoon to the Weather Team!!!!

Been a while but this wetaher is just too interesting so had to take some time to check in-we got close to and inch and a half-great rain!!!!! Real good soaker and I will take all we can get-we are finally at a surplus here for the first time in almost 2 years-awesome stuff!!!

This will indeed be interesting to follow-there are winter storm watches as close as Manhattan, Kansas and western Kansas looks to get hit pretty good considering this is April-amazing what another 2,000 feet in elevation can do for you!!!

The LRC-man, the LRC-it is there-it may not be an exact replica, but the ridge in the West etc. all there on the maps-I mean you will not have an exact duplicate, but the ideas will be there-even a photo copy is not an exact match-but the eveidence is there and was there last year-just Tight!!!!

I still wonder about snow though-the models are very aggressive with it and I think things are for sure lining up and man do we need a lot to line up to get snow in April (well, anytime of the year but April-man you better stand on your head and touch your ears with your pinky finger LOL) I'm not sure if this is correct analysis or not, but I think the fact that this storm now leaving has deepened and is slower, it is helping to bring more cold air which in turn is helping suppress the next strom some what-if this current storm had exited early this morning and was weaker, it may have allowed Friday's to go further North-does that make sense??

Well, I've done it again-babbled too much-weather it snows or not, this past week has been incredible weather wise-I hate all the damage the cold has done and feel for gardners, growers, and farmers-however, as a weather enthusiast, it is always interesting to expirience a historical type weather event and if we were to get 2-3 inches of snow it would be icing on the cake!!!!

Thanks for reading and for all the great Blogs-as always, this is an incredible place to discuss the weather!!!! Have a great night

Bill I will not look at another model run for this storm so I can just imagine the 12Z GFS from today in Lawrence

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Bill,

You are correct...to get an accumulating snow in April all things almost have to be perfect. That is one reason why putting a snow total on the storm is too early. If the 850 0C line moves, the surface temp changes, or the surface & ULL change position the storm will take a whole new look. The 18Z data did keep snow in the forecast though for Friday Night.

Jeremy

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Jeremey,

I'm sure you have it, but some place over the web, a BIG conflict with the LRC is occuring. You shuold read that e-mail asap, if you want. I found it REALLY intresting.
Regarding the storm, does it look like this could be a major storm event?

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Alden,

The storm will be major. Bringing heavy rain to most of the area and also a chance of a late spring snow. The question now is will there be snow accumulation and how much. The next half day should give us a decent idea. I'd really like to see the 00Z & 12Z runs to see if the trend continues to show snow for the area.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,

I'm going to blame you for all this because you came from the Great Lakes where its not so uncommon for it to snow in the middle of April, here it's getting into very historic territories!

I must say though scientifically this is fascinating to watch. But preferably, I'd love to keep the snow between the months of November and to about Mid March.

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Jon,

I thought I moved far enough south to avoid seeing snow this late in the season! The last record setting April snow occurred on April 10, 1997 when 1.1" of snow was recorded at KCI.

Both Milwaukee and Madison set daily snowfall records today. Both cities were around 6". When growing up in southwest Minnesota I vividly remember seeing snow on Memorial Day weekend once!

Jeremy

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WOW!! Are those Winter Storm Watches being posted in central KS? LOL. This is awesome.

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Brian,

Just west of Topeka Winter Storm Watches are already in place for the Friday storm!

Jeremy

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Yeah! April snow!!! In response to Jon's comments about a northerner moving here and bringing snow, can't be any truth to it. We've been here two and a half years and up until the last snowstorm, I had seen bigger storms back home than all of the snow combined since we got here.
April snow is incredibly beautiful. Unfortunately, it's also "heart attack" snow because of the heavy moisture and weight of the snow.
I've been through a lot of big snowstorms in April, even in the last 10 years, but the last real big one was the April Fools Day storm of 1997 -- 33 inches at our house. I doubt we'll get anything like that while we live here, but I'd love to see at least a foot.

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Matt,

The forecast is a challenge for Friday/Sat. The one thing for certain is this storm has plenty of moisture to work with. Most areas should see around 1" of rain or more.

Jeremy

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Six years ago on Saturday my husband and I got married outside at the Simpson House. While we were planning our wedding my mother just kept going on and on about how we shouldn't get married outside in April because it could snow. Thankfully we had beautiful weather for our ceremony (it rained and rained during our reception) but I suppose my mother was right it can snow in April.

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Shelley,

Happy Anniversary a little early! Spring weddings outdoors are a little risky, but have the potential to be very beautiful.

Snow can and does happen in April. However, mid-April is pretty unusual for accumulating snow to occur. If the snow remains in the forecast we'll put a number on any possible accumulation come Thursday's PM shows.

Jeremy

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Hey Jeremy!
This is Exciting! NOW..I know you guys absolutely HATE mentioning snowfall totals early, BUT I know if this was winter time you would have SOME idea of how much could fall or a rough estimate...nothing to hold you to just an estimate. SO...IF this was the middle of winter and this storm was coming HOW MUCH do you think would fall...do you like all of my EMPHASIS? KEEP IT UP GUYS. I'M GLUED ALL WEEK!
and yeah I feel bad for Gary! BYE!

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Jonathan,

The forecast for this storm is tough to say the least. There's really no way to comapre the middle of winter to now. The ground is no longer frozen and the air temps with this next storm will be in the 30s if and when the rain changes to sleet or snow. So how much will actually stick to the pavement and grass. I think Thursday would be a good time to go over why it is so hard to get a storm to produce accumulating snow in April. If it still looks like snow after the 12Z models come out on Thursday we will then put some numbers on possible snow totals. We'll make sure to let the bloggers know first and also provide some additional thoughts and insight on the storm.

Jeremy

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Good chilly morning to the Weather Team!!!!

I just wanted to wish all of you good luck with this storm-this is going to be a nightmare to forecast but I know A. you are all more than up to the challange and B. will embrace the challenge!! This is truly exciting if you like snow-I feel like the color guy on the Movie Cars-Man I'm excited and all it comes down to this woiee!!!!

If I am reading things corrrectly, the 6Z models are still on track for us to see some snow-the NAM is a bit further south than the GFS but both show (amazingly) that a heavier band may form just to the south of the metro??? I think the staelite imagery is amazing this morning-you can see the storm now forming over the 4 corners but we are still under the cirulation from yesterday's storm-this to me is the key-I think this is helping push the forming strom in the 4 corners further south-amazing stuff!!!

Have a great day-good luck-man I wish we could have this type of storm with this predicted track in the middle of winter-as great as this winter was, we still never got that classic 4 corners low like this one apperas to be-should be fascinating!!! If the 12Z is on board then game on!!!!

Bill in Lawrence
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