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Week 4 high school picks
September 27, 2007I wasn't able to make my predictions last week because of a death in the family, but I'm back and ready to break down this week's action.
It is District time for 5-4A and 9-2A, which means now the games finally matter. And that is what makes these next few weeks even greater.
Sherman at Rider - The Raiders blasted Plainview 51-0 last week, showing no signs of a Stephenville hangover. The Bearcats are better than Rider's last opponent, so I am predicting only a 3 or 4-touchdown win.
WFHS at Denton - It didn't surprise me that Burk gave the Coyotes a run for their money. But it will surprise me if the Broncos do the same. A WFHS victory should come pretty easily.
Olney at Henrietta - The Bearcats are 0-3 while the Cubs are 3-0. But I guarantee you that Olney coach Damon Rodgers is worried about this one. Henrietta is a really tough defensive team, and I have seen them pull their fare share of upsets, especially in district openers (against Childress in both 2004 and 2005).
I was there for both of those games, and I will be there for this one, too. But I think Olney might have too much firepower, so I will go with a narrow victory for the Cubs.
Holliday at City View - Eagles by a bunch. A whole bunch. And the reason they may not score more than 50 is because Coach Wolf is a pretty nice guy when it comes to not running up the score.
Nocona at Alvord - This is a game Nocona HAS to win if it wants to make the playoffs. And I think it will. The Bulldogs aren't as tough as last year, I don't think.
Jacksboro vs. Chico - I do not know who is the home team for this one, but it will not matter. The Tigers will crush Chico, although I am not sure how good Jacksboro, coming off a 2-8 season, really is.
And now to some non-district games:
Graham vs. Monahans - The Steers have been playing pretty well, and they have always had success in Abilene, the site of this game. Monahans will be a tough test, but one Graham will pass.
Trinity Christian at Burkburnett - The Bulldogs cannot show any ill effects of its loss last week. The only thing I know about TCA is that one HS football website has it ranked No. 1 in the state. That's good enough for me. I’ll pick Trinity.
Clyde at Vernon - Vernon just got done with a tough game against Decatur, and next week it has a tough one with ex-district rival Breckenridge. It would be easy for the Lions to overlook Clyde (who only lost to Graham 12-0). But I don't think that will happen. Vernon by 14.
Hirschi at FW Eastern Hills - I don't know anything about Eastern Hills. But I know Hirschi has some guys banged up guys that they will be resting probably all the way until district starts. So I will pick Eastern Hills in a close one.
Bridgeport at Iowa Park - Bridgeport big. Although I think the Hawks are getting better and can't be overlooked when district starts.
Munday at Quanah - This is most likely the Moguls' toughest team yet, but I think Munday wins pretty easily.
And on Saturday….
Canadian at Windthorst - Another game I will be at. I think the Wildcats, one of the best 2A teams in the state, may be too much for the Trojans, which have not reached their potential yet. Canadian by a few, but it should be a decent game. I'm excited about it.
Tune in next Thursday when I break down some more big games.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Six area teams ranked
September 26, 2007The other day, I wrote a column about how the area is thriving with six football teams ranked. But who has the best chance of finishing the regular season still ranked between Graham, Holliday, Rider, Vernon, Munday and Windthorst?
Here are some of my thoughts on the matter:
1) Holliday - I don't think the Eagles will lose a game in District 9-2A action, which begins this week. The Eagles' toughest test will probably be Olney, but I'm thinking Holliday goes 10-0.
2) Rider - District 5-4A is kind of struggling right now, so I don't think Rider will be upset by any mediocre teams. The teams with the best chances of beating the Raiders are Denton Ryan and WFHS, but I'm guessing Rider finishes 9-1.
3) Graham - The Steers still have two tough non-district games left in Monahans and Bishop Lynch. And let's not forget Vernon and Burk in 6-3A. I think Graham could lose one of those four games and still be ranked. But if they lose two, they'll be out of the top 10 come mid-November.
4) Munday - The Moguls' non-district slate has been pretty soft, and Munday could be upset by a number of teams once district starts. But if they win the games they are suppose to, then only a battle with Windthorst at home will keep them from going 10-0.
5) Vernon -- Clyde and Breckenridge are solid 3A programs, and the Lions will have to play well to win those, but I think they'll come out on top. Can they topple both Graham and Burk on the road? We'll find out soon enough.
6) WIndthorst - I know, how can I put the Trojans last on this list. Because they are going to be hurt by their difficult non-district schedule. They've already lost to one 2A ranked team (Holliday) and could lose to another one this week (Canadian). FW Christian is their last game before 9-A begins, and I'm not so sure Munday could beat them now.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 2 high school picks
September 13, 2007Before I give some of my picks for this weekend's games, let me get this rant off my chest.
If you checked out Thursday's paper, you have may noticed the high school picks. And you may have noticed that I was bringing up the rear. Yep, dead last.
That wouldn't bother me if it was the college or pro picks, but I pride myself on making the right high school picks. I talk to 5-10 area coaches a week, and I usually get a pretty good feeling about who's playing well and who's not.
I feel like I can turn things around. So here's my picks for this week's games:
Stephenville at Rider -- I'll admit it. I picked Stephenville in the paper, because I think it's a toss-up and most of my co-workers chose Rider. Hey, I have to make up ground some way. So Stephenville wins a nail-biter, but it won't surprise me if the Raiders come out on top.
FW Castleberry at Hirschi -- It's 3-0 for the Huskies, who shouldn't have that much of a problem. They win by 14.
Childress at Iowa Park -- The Hawks have won this game by a point each of the last two seasons. But I'm predicting a close loss in this one.
Bowie at Holliday -- The last time Holliday was ranked this high in the Top 10 (2004), Bowie came out and pulled an upset of the second-ranked Eagles. Holliday won't let it happen this time, as they become the third 2A team (Whitewright and Boyd) to dispose of the Jackrabbits this season.
Abilene Wylie at Graham -- The game I'll be at. Again, another toss-up matchup. Graham's defense hasn't allowed any points, but I was impressed about Wylie's 42-5 whipping of Iowa Park. I'll take the Bulldogs (and hope not to get kicked out of the pressbox).
Springtown at Burkburnett -- Let me get this straight. Burk won last year on the road despite Springtown having a Division I-caliber quarterback. With Burk at its home and playing well, I'll take the Bulldogs again.
Mineral Wells at Vernon -- The Lions never had any luck beating MW coach David Bourquin when he was at Graham. And the Rams snuck by Vernon at home last year in OT. But Vernon's on a roll and they'll win by 10.
Olney at Seymour -- The Cubs have had two weeks to rest up, while Seymour is coming off a loss to one of 2A's best in Cisco. The Cubs go to 2-0 with the win.
Electra at Paradise -- I liked the Tigers' improvement against Holliday in the second half last week. But I think the young Tigers also need another game or two under their belts before they can handle a tough 2A team like Paradise. The Panthers are the pick.
Nocona vs. Valley View -- Let's do the math. Nocona lost to Aubrey by a few touchdowns. Aubrey lost to Valley View the next week. So even though the Indians are coming off a 47-point explosion, I think Valley View will edge them.
Alvord at Windthorst -- I saw the Trojans win this game by about 40 points last year. It won't be that much of a blowout, but the Trojans will win comfortably.
That's it for this week's key games. We'll see what happens on Friday night.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 11:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 1 thoughts and my love for 8-team districts
September 12, 2007A lot happened during Week 1 (aka the second week of the season). Here are my quick thoughts from last Friday night:
* District 6-3A may be the area's best district this season. I know it's still pretty early in the season, but four of the five teams are 2-0. And they've beaten teams like Decatur, Midland Christian and Midland Greenwood.
This week 6-3A may face its toughest test yet. Graham hosts a tough Abilene Wylie squad, Vernon takes on Mineral Wells (and Rams coach Bourquin, who Hall never beat when Bourquin was at Graham), and Burk hosts Springtown. Iowa Park, the only team at 0-2, may struggle some in non-district, but Coach Ellis will have the Hawks ready to go in a few weeks.
* Offenses light it up. As I wrote in today's paper, some teams who struggled in the first week scored tons this week. Some of that has to do with opponents (ex. Windthorst should score more against Lindsay than Holliday). But also I think there's quiet a bit of offensive talent this season. Munday and Archer City scored 60 points - and even though they weren't playing tough teams - that's mighty impressive.
* WFHS' defense struggles. That was the only downer if you were a fan of WFISD football. Rider had a gutsy comeback over Midland Lee, and Hirschi whipped Portales. I knew Everman is a good team, but Coach Pride cannot be happy entering his bye week after giving up 50 points. I bet they are much more stingy next week against Burkburnett.
AND FINALLY..
I wish every area district had eight teams. This week will be the last week for many 9-2A teams to get ready for non-district after next week's byes. Eight-team districts mean more games matter, and it also doesn't water down the playoffs (like District 5-3A, which has four teams and three advance).
And I know coaches like the extra game or two in non-district, but I think three games (plus those two scrimmages) are enough. And Oklahoma coaches won't give any complaining Texas coaches any sympathy. Some Okie districts start the second game of the season.
I know it's impossible for the UIL to have tons of 8-team districts, but I wouldn't mind this area getting a couple more when UIL realignment happens in February.
And check back at this blog Thursday night when I pick who I think will win several key games this weekend.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Looking back at Week 0 and looking ahead
September 05, 2007Just finished up with my all my weekend-early week work for HS football. So it’s time to provide thoughts on the first weekend.
Just finished up with my all my weekend-early week work for HS football. So it’s time to provide thoughts on the first weekend.
*Biggest surprise – Here’s a couple. Petrolia rushed for 350 yards in a nice win against Sacred Heart. The Pirates are going to surprise some people. Also, I was a little stunned Henrietta lost to Pottsboro, but maybe Pottsboro is a little tougher since dropping down to 2A. When they were in 3A, it seemed like Henrietta whipped them every time.
*City teams roll – No surprise here. Rider crushed Frenship. The margin of victory raised an eyebrow, but I never thought the Raiders wouldn’t win. WFHS clearly overmatched Sweetwater (Remember, Sweetwater agreed to this game when Coach Jason Johns was here and they were running the majority of the time). And Hirschi easily took care of Diamond Hill-Jarvis. That game was also the radio debut of this writer (so I’m sorry if to any who were listening).
*Also – Quanah losing 40-0 to Olney was a little eye-raising, but considering the Indians had some key returners depart before the season started, I’d say the Cubs clearly overmatched them. Quanah probably shouldn’t have been ranked like they were after their guys left.
*Shutouts galore – There were lots of them. Olney. Graham, Archer City, Munday all posted zeros. And Hirschi would have had one if not for a late turnover in their end. Just shows you how much defenses are ahead of offenses at this stage of the season.
Looking ahead
*This may be the worst week of the year for the average fan who wants to go see a decent game in the area. WFHS-Everman should be a decent match-up, but it’s pretty grim after that. Rider (at Midland Lee) and Hirschi (playing Portales N.M. in Lubbock) are playing far away on Saturday.
All the 6-3A teams are on the road, and the best small-school area game is probably Holliday-Electra. But the Eagles, who crushed Windthorst last week, could do the same again. Although, Electra has had two weeks to prepare for this game and it’s always a good rivalry match-up. That’s where I’ll be on Friday.
Besides that, there’s Henrietta-Paradise, who both lost last week but made the playoffs in 06. And Petrolia travels to Alvord in the hopes of starting out 2-0.
So we’ll see how everything plays out. I’ll check back in over the weekend.
Posted by trn-admin at 02:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Five thoughts from the TRN Kickoff Classic
The regular season for high school football is finally here. After watching Holliday roll over Windthorst in Thursday’s TRN Kickoff Classic, here is what caught my attention the most:
The regular season for high school football is finally here. After watching Holliday roll over Windthorst in Thursday’s TRN Kickoff Classic, here is what caught my attention the most:
1) I knew Landrey Lemons, Holliday’s TE/WR, would be dominant this season. But seeing it in person was a whole different story. Several times Lemons lined up as a wideout, and his combo of speed and size (200 pounds) made him uncoverable.
I felt sorry for the Trojan corner who gave up 60 pounds trying to guard him. Lemons had 7 catches for 76 yards, and would have broke the century mark if he hadn’t dropped a touchdown on a tough play. The guy will be one of the area’s leading statistical leaders in ’07, I can promise you that.
2) Holliday’s passing game, with QB Trey Lawson, looks much improved. The Eagles haven’t had a pure passer since Joe Mike Fouts in 2003, but Lawson looks like the real deal. He showed poise and found the open receivers. I expect good things to come for Holliday.
3) I don’t think the Eagles are going to lose a regular season game. That’s how impressive I thought they were on both sides of the football. They should beat Electra and Bowie I think, and their two toughest district foes will most likely be Henrietta and Olney.
The Cubs have the offense to hang with Holliday, but I’m not sure about their defense. And the Bearcats’ defense will be a worthy adversary, but I’m not sure about their offense.
4) Never, in any game I’ve covered, has a final score lied as much as this one did. People across the state will see Holliday 31, Windthorst 21 and think it was a pretty good game among two pretty good teams. That wasn’t the case.
Holliday looked like they were playing at a whole level than Windthorst.
5) Windthorst is not that bad. Holliday will make a lot of teams look stupid this season. And the Trojans still have a chance to go far in the playoffs. Coach Green will get things straightened out, and I expect they will crush Lindsay this weekend.
Posted by trn-admin at 02:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
