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Crunching the numbers
October 30, 2007I did some numbers-crunching on Monday, talking with area coaches on how their teams can make the playoffs.
The crazy thing is out of the area's four main districts (5-4A, 6-3A, 9-2A and 9-A), there is a somewhat decent chance 11 of the 12 spots up for grabs are filled heading into the last week.
Compare that to last year when five teams -- Graham, Vernon, Alvord, Henrietta and Archer City -- all qualified for the postseason on the last week.
Here's what we know (calculators sold separately):
IN:
5-4A: Denton Ryan -- Even if it loses its last two games (which it won't because one of those games is against last-place Denton) Ryan holds many tiebreaker edges.
6-3A: Graham -- The worst the Steers could do is lose twice and get in a two-way tie with IP (which it wins) or a three-way tie with Burk and Iowa Park for two playoff spots (which Burk, based on points, would clinch second and Graham would move on in third since it beat the Hawks).
9-2A: None
9-A: Munday -- Out of the four teams alive in the playoffs in this district, Munday has already beaten two of them.
ALMOST GUARANTEED IN (99.9%):
5-4A: Rider -- Here's the only situation that can happen for Rider not to make the playoffs. Rider loses its last two games (and by 14 points or more to WFHS) and before beating Rider, the Coyotes would have to lose by 14 points or more to Denison. Denison would also need to beat Sherman in Week 10.
This would leave Rider, WFHS and Denison tied at 4-2 in district and all would have 0 based on the points system. I think the next tiebreaker is a coin flip, and even then, Rider has a 2-in-3 chance of getting in.
Also, this scenario has about as much of a chance of happening as me winning the lottery tomorrow. If that happens, there is almost a guarantee this will be my last blog.
6-3A: None.
9-2A: None.
9-A: Seymour -- The Panthers would need to lose their last two games not to make it. Their second loss to Windthorst would need to be by 14 points. Also, Windthorst would need to lose to Archer City by 14 points, creating a three-way tie for two spots. This scenario is kinda like Rider's from above.
WILL BE VERY SURPRISED IF THEY DON'T CLINCH FRIDAY
5-4A: WFHS -- All the Coyotes have to do is beat a Denison team that trailed Denton Ryan 34-6 at the half last week. Should be easy enough.
6-3A: Burkburnett -- Only thing that stands in the way of Bulldogs' playoff appearance is a win Saturday against Hirschi, which has lost six straight. This happens because Burk holds upper hand in all tiebreaker scenarios after big its win against IP.
9-2A: Nocona -- Indians almost lost last week but can get in by beating Chico, which got drilled by City View.
Henrietta -- Same case as Nocona. All it has to do is beat City View. These two teams can clinch because at worst (since they play each other in Week 10) they will be in a two-way tie with Olney for third (which both have the head-to-head advantage) or a three-way tie with Olney and Holliday (in case the Eagles lose again), If that happens, either team would still go in at second place with the points advantage.
9-A: None.
WIN FRIDAY AND THEY ARE IN
5-4A: As mentioned earlier, Rider and WFHS.
6-3A: Burkburnett and Vernon. If the Lions lose to Graham, they will need to beat Iowa Park next week.
9-2A: Henrietta and Nocona, but not Holliday (see below)
9-A: Seymour and Windthorst -- I think the Trojans should beat Archer City, but there are no guarantees here.
THE HOLLIDAY SITUATION
This maybe the weirdest one. Holliday, which could have locked up a playoff berth last week with a win against Olney, can't guarantee a playoff berth by beating Alvord this week.
That's because if the Eagles lose one of their next two games (assuming Olney wins out), then there's going to be a three-way tie with the Week 10 Nocona/Henrietta loser, Holliday and Olney. Nocona/Henrietta would take second based on points, and then third place would be decided head-to-head.
That allows Olney to trump Holliday for the last playoff spot. I still think Holliday makes the playoffs, but nothing is guaranteed.
STILL GOT A CHANCE
5-4A: Denison -- Like it's mentioned earlier, they must beat Coyotes and Sherman.
6-3A: Iowa Park -- First, the Hawks have to have Graham win over Vernon (if not the three playoff teams are set). Then they must beat Vernon.
If Graham beats Burk (after beating Vernon) and IP beats Vernon in Week 10, then IP must win by three points (a 2-pt. loss would let Vernon in with the tiebreaker scenario). If Burk beats Graham, then all IP would need to do is to win.
9-2A: Olney -- Not only must the Cubs win out (against Jacksboro and Chico), but they would need a) either Henrietta or Nocona to lose out, which won't happen or b) Holliday to lose one of its remaining games.
9-A: Archer City -- The Wildcats would need to defeat Windthorst and Petrolia its last two weeks to assure a playoff berth. Beating the Trojans would put them in the driver's seat for third, but they'd still need to take care of the Pirates unless Windthorst also lost to Seymour, putting both teams at 2-3 in district.
Is your head spinning as much as mine is right now? We will have to wait a few days to see how the first of two weeks play out.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 01:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Holy cow! Some craziness in 9-2A
October 27, 2007We're at the time of the season when you can finally see how things will play out. Teams are headed in different directions, and it gets easier to pick the games.
Or so I thought.
There were several scores from last night that raised an eyebrow or two. First, though, I would like to congratulate City View for earning its first victory since 2004. On paper, it looked like an impressive 41-7 win that I didn't see coming.
* Olney 14, Holliday 7: Very early in the football season I said Holliday would go undefeated until the playoffs. But something doesn't seem right about these Eagles lately with narrow wins over Henrietta and Nocona and now this.
And part of the problem with my prediction is that I made it after Holliday romped over Windthorst and Electra, wins that don't seem too impressive now. But kudos to Olney. This helps them get back into the playoff race and makes the next two weeks very interesting.
On another 9-2A note, how weird is this. Excluding Chico and City View, did anyone else notice the bottom three teams (Olney, Jacksboro and Alvord) all almost -- or did in Olney's case -- beat the top three teams (Holliday, Henrietta and Nocona). Henrietta beat Alvord in overtime, and Nocona rallied to beat Jacksboro. Just weird.
* Graham 14, Iowa Park 13: The only way I thought this would be a close game would be if Graham turned the ball over. They did so four times. The Hawks are always a tough team, but after seeing them lose to Burkburnett 27-3, never in my wildest dreams did I think they would nearly beat the Steers.
* Real quick-- other scores that surprised me a little. The margin of City View's victory was eye-catching (it has been a long time since they have scored 41 total points), and it looked like Denton Guyer played WFHS close. Also, Munday clearly proved they are a dominant team with a 30-point win against Windthorst. And it could have been worse.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 09:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Commenting on no comments and my Week 8 predictions
October 25, 2007Before I look at Week 8's matchups, I have to inform my diehard readers (all two of you) about this.
So I've been doing this blog since football season started, and I have received no comments. I figured I must have made someone mad by picking against their team, right? But then someone brought to my attention that there was no link for anyone to make comments (Why -- I have no idea).
After telling the Internet guys at work about it, it is finally fixed. So anyone is free to make comments. Now onto the weekend:
Rider at Denton: How bad is Denton? They lost to Denton Guyer. Rider will crush them, probably by at least five touchdowns (They are a 54-point favorite on one website).
Denton Guyer at WFHS: The Coyotes will inch closer to the playoffs with an easy victory in this one.
And on another note, it looks like WFHS and Rider could face Birdville and Boswell in the bi-district round of the playoff again. Both city teams played on the road last year, so it's looking like the Raiders and Coyotes could be at Memorial Stadium this time. How about a Saturday doubleheader -- that would be fun.
Hirschi at Vernon: The Huskies are done. They gave up almost 500 rushing yards to IP last week, and Vernon runs the ball better than the Hawks do. The Lions will be 2-0 in 6-3A heading into next week's game against Graham.
Graham at Iowa Park: Cannot see the Steers losing this one, just can't. The Hawks could make this one interesting if they can force a few turnovers, but the bottom line is Graham is more talented.
Olney at Holliday: Olney's two losses have come against teams Holliday has beaten the past two weeks. The Eagles have been walking a tight line lately, but with a playoff berth on the line, they will pull through.
Now the Cubs do have desperation going for them. They must win this game to have a chance to make the playoffs. But after I started thinking about it, a win against Holliday may not even be enough. Let's say Nocona and Henrietta win out (which they will be favored to do) until they play each other. One will finish district 6-1 and the other will be 5-2. Holliday finishes 6-1, and Olney, assuming they win out, is 5-2 as well. Olney would lose the tiebreaker to both Nocona and Henrietta. So the Cubs would need some major help to get in.
Chico at City View: Neither team has won a game this season. But Chico has at least scored some points this season (the Mustangs have only scored 12) so I will pick the Dragons.
Jacksboro at Nocona: The Tigers could make this one interesting, but the Indians are on a roll right now and are close to taking the next step -- making the playoffs. They take that step on Friday.
Henrietta at Alvord: Some are saying this could be a possible upset. I don't think the Bearcats, who could be in the district lead, will let that happen, but I would not be surprised if this is a close one. I still give the edge to Henrietta.
Munday at Archer City: Both teams are struggling, and both have lost their two district games by large margins. Since neither team is on a roll, I will go with the team who I think has more talent. That would be Archer City, which keeps its slim playoff hopes alive with a win.
Seymour at Petrolia: The Panthers are scoring points at will, while Petrolia is allowing about 40 points a game in district. I think Seymour could score about that much, and I don't think the Pirates will. Seymour by a comfortable margin is the pick.
Windthorst at Munday: Here is the game I will be at. The Moguls have been killing people all season, while the Trojans have a 30-game winning streak in district. Something has gotta give, right. I think both don't hold up.
I think Windthorst is the toughest team the Moguls have played this season, but I think Munday wins. But only by about 10 points or so -- no blowout this time.
I guess we will see what happens. Check back over the weekend when we talk about what how everything played out.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Here's what we learned this weekend
October 23, 2007We learned a few things form this past weekend of high school football. And while I was out of town (in Dallas for one of my best friend's wedding), I kept up with the Friday night happenings enough to know how things played out.
Here is what we found out:
* That WFHS is a playoff team. The Coyotes played their most impressive game on the road against Sherman, and now only a complete stumble against a team like Denton Guyer or Denison would keep WFHS out of the postseason.
* That Holliday should win 9-2A and Olney may not make the playoffs. The words "should" and "may not" could be changed to "will" and "will not" if the Eagles beat the Cubs this weekend. Holliday isn't winning with style points, but it does keep on winning.
* That two area schools that have not made the postseason this millennium will soon be able to do so. Nocona (1996) put themselves in great position with a win over Olney, and it's looking like the Nocona-Henrietta matchup the last week of the season will decide second place in 9-2A.
Seymour (1999) is 2-0 in district, and even though the Panthers have their hardest two games left (Munday and Windthorst), they will have a great chance at 3-0 with a win over Petrolia this week.
* That a) I can't drink as much while out partying with my friends as I used to (I never said this would be all football-related); b) that Greeks throw great wedding receptions (dancing + open bar= craziness) and c) that Greek weddings last a long time -- so long, the best man passed out during it. I told him not to lock his knees, but good times anyway.
* And finally, that Vernon-Graham showdown in two weeks will be for the 6-3A title. That's what I anticipated earlier in the year, but Burkburnett-Graham looked more like the title bout the past couple of weeks. That is, until the Lions took down the Bulldogs 21-13 last Friday.
Check back in a couple of days when I give my Week 8 predictions.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 09:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 7 projections
October 18, 2007Before I take a trip down memory lane to help make some key projections this week, I must tell you why I am going to be absentia from Friday night's action.
Normally, I would be covering the Henrietta-Holliday showdown for first place in 9-2A, but instead I will be here in Dallas (the wife and I are currently at my parents' house as we speak. And I must say, there's a ton of good food hanging around in the kitchen.) for one of my best friend's wedding. I have known the guy since we were 8 (or however old third grade is).
So it will be a little weird not being in a packed stadium watching a football game on Friday night. But you can bet I will call the office around midnight and get the lowdown of the night's events. I do not suggest you do the same - we get pretty annoyed by the time the 20th person calls wanting to know a score, especially when we are trying to put out a paper.
Anyway, back to looking back at the past to help with my predictions:
Holliday at Henrietta -- I remember the last time Holliday was state-ranked and traveled to Henrietta with the district lead on the line. It had poured all day, and a scrappy Henrietta team held Colin Leggett in check and won 10-0.
That was 2004. And though I am not sure what the weather will be like, I will say this Henrietta team is pretty scrappy itself. Unfortunately, Holliday is coming off a game it nearly lost (13-12 over Nocona) and will be more focused than ever.
That's why I think the Eagles will win a low-scoring affair. Last week was a wake-up call for them, so they will come out looking to prove something. But I won't be too surprised if something like 2004 happens again.
Vernon at Burkburnett -- I remember the last time these two teams played. Burkburnett was without its top RB in Nate Brown, so it relied on guys like Jonathan Frank and Keaton Green to make the big plays in an OT come-from-behind win.
Well, guess what. Those guys are still around. And these one-loss teams have played two common opponents. Both barely beat Decatur, but Burkburnett nudged past Clyde in OT, while Clyde took down Vernon by almost 20 points.
I'm going to go with the Bulldogs in this one because a) they are playing at a really high level right now and b) they don't want to go into their bye week with a loss.
Nocona at Olney -- I remember each team's district loss pretty clearly (I can thank Time Warner for being able to watch the Nocona game). Nocona committed five turnovers against the Eagles, while three Olney turnovers led to easy Henrietta scores.
Both teams are great offenses and good defenses. So this game comes down to who turns the ball over, plain and simple. Call it a hunch, but I'll pick the road team in this one. The Indians pull out a close one.
Now onto the rest of this week's slate:
WFHS at Sherman -- Both teams have lost to Ryan, so the loser of this one is probably out of the playoffs.
The Coyotes, with RB Ryan Robison, are running the ball better and can score points at will, but they also need to stop teams from scoring. I honestly don't know if they can, so I will pick the home team in a mini-upset.
Iowa Park at Hirschi -- Both teams are in a must-win situation. But only one team can win. The Hawks can run the ball pretty effectively (although Burkburnett did a nice job of stopping them last week) and Hirschi has not stop teams from running lately.
If the Huskies can make a few big plays, and they have the speed to do so, then they can win. But I will go with the Hawks by about 10 points in this one.
City View at Jacksboro -- The Tigers know they could be 3-0 in 9-2A if not for losing tight ones against Henrietta and Alvord. Jacksboro comes out strong and cruises easily.
Electra at Seymour -- Panthers, coming off a big win, win big again.
Munday at Archer City -- Wildcats would like stop the bleeding after their blowout loss last week, but I don't think that happens as Munday pulls away, setting up a showdown with Windthorst next week.
Petrolia at Windthorst -- This should be the closest of the aforementioned 9-A games, but I do not think it will be that close. Trojans by two scores.
And don't worry. Even though I will be out-of-pocket for a few days, I'll still blog about the weekend's happenings next week.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 09:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Things are clearing up (for the most part)
October 15, 2007Maybe I'm going out on a limb with this statement, but after the first week of district play (or three weeks, for some ones), I think I have a pretty good idea on who is going to make the playoffs.
And for three of the four main districts in the area, I'm ready to go out on a limb and tell you which teams have a date with the postseason.
I am not sure of what order, but Graham, Burkburnett and Vernon will go in 6-3A. I thought as much before last week, but wanted to see Iowa Park play first.
The Hawks play with such a thin margin for error that they cannot afford to have any turnovers. And they aren't a big-play threat on offense, either. I just don't think right now they can beat Graham or Vernon. And let's face it -- Hirschi is falling apart. No way the Huskies get in unless there is a magical turnaround.
Rider and Denton Ryan are easy 5-4A picks. The WFHS-Sherman winner is also in. It is that simple.
And after what we witnessed in the first week of District 9-A, how could one not agree that there is a separation between the top three and bottom three teams.
I am not sure which order Munday, Seymour and Windthorst will finish in, but I think they are the top three teams.
I am going to be frank here. Electra is a young, rebuilding team who is just looking to be competitive (they have only scored one TD all year), and I am afraid Petrolia - who probably had a better team last year and did not make the playoffs - can't beat those top three (they already lost to Munday).
So that leaves Archer City. Only problem is the Wildcats are really banged up (RB Blaine Willett is out for the year) and get the Moguls this week. That is the last team they want to play after being whipped by Seymour. It just sounds like it won't be their year.
Now we are down to 9-2A, the one district that I don't know what will happen. Here are the four teams I think have a good shot of making it, and where they stand:
Holliday (3-0): Must play Henrietta and Olney
Henrietta (3-0): Holliday and Nocona
Nocona (2-1): Olney and Henrietta
Olney (2-1): Nocona and Holliday
The winner of Holliday-Henrietta will be in first after this week and will make the playoffs (barring no upsets).
The winner of Olney-Nocona should make the playoffs, as long as they don't stumble along the way. And the loser most likely would need to win its other big game.
I can see this going one of many ways. If Holliday runs the table, which isn't a guarantee by any means, then Henrietta-Nocona could be for a playoff spot or possibly there could be a three-way tie for second and third (like last year).
There also could be a two-way tie for first and a two-way tie for third before it is all said and done. There are a number of possibilities.
But with two of the four biggest games remaining occurring this week, the 9-2A picture should be clearer in the next few days.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 10:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 6 predictions
October 11, 2007If you ever watch college football on ESPN on Saturdays, you will notice that they always have a slogan to describe that weekend's slate of games.
"Showdown Saturday." "Rebound Saturday." "Shake-up Saturday." They give an angle to how the key games are viewed.
Well, I am not going to be as corny as ESPN, but I will say this much. This weekend, with many districts opening, will tell us a lot about some area teams who have some uncertainty surrounding them.
Before I get into all my district picks, here are a few of the games I am talking about:
Burkburnett at Iowa Park: The Hawks have won three straight (including a very impressive W against Bridgeport), but two of those victories have come against winless teams.
So how good are the Hawks? We will find out against a tough team like Burkburnett. I think the Bulldogs will win a close game, although IP pulling this one out is not out of the question.
Nocona at Holliday: I moved Nocona into my Top 10 last week, and they have been playing very well of late. But the Indians' two district wins have come against 0-2 teams, as has Holliday (which has beaten City View and Chico).
So I do not know how good the Indians are. But we will find out Friday when they visit Holliday. It is tough for me to pick against the Eagles, so Holliday will win. But if Nocona plays them to the wire, then that is a good sign for the Indians' playoff hopes.
Archer City at Seymour: How good is Archer City? How good is Seymour? I think they are both pretty solid teams who beat the non-district teams they were supposed to have beaten, with Seymour posting the best win, taking down Jacksboro.
Like I said the other day, I think the winner of this game makes the playoffs. Last year, the senior-laden team won a hard-fought game on their home turf. I think that happens again this year, so I am going to go with Seymour, which holds an experience factor.
Now onto the other picks:
Denison at Rider: The Raiders are starting to run the ball better, and that is not a good sign for the Yellowjackets. Rider wins big, very big.
WFHS at Boswell: There are two reasons I picked the Coyotes this week, even though I witnessed Boswell score almost 50 points against WFHS last year.
First, the Coyotes offense had a very good showing against Ryan, racking up tons of yards. And second, Boswell only beat Denton Guyer 56-42 earlier in the season. Any team that gives up 42 points to a school that has not won a football game ever before is in some serious trouble on defense. I know the WFHS defense isn't the best of the bunch, but it will be good enough in this shootout.
Hirschi at Graham: The Steers are playing some of the best ball in the area, and it would be easy for them to overlook the struggling Huskies. But here is why they won't.
They remember the game last year, in which they lost to Hirschi. The Steers want some revenge for their only district blemish, and I have a feeling they will get it in a big way. Steers by a couple of touchdowns at least.
Olney at City View: The Cubs looked like they got back on track against Alvord last week, scoring 40+ points. Expect another offensive explosion for Olney in this one.
Alvord-Jacksboro: A game Jacksboro really needs to win to keep thinking playoffs. The Tigers may be down after letting Henrietta rally to beat them, but I think they come out and prove a point this week.
Henrietta-Chico: Cannot recall off the top of my head who the home team is in this one, but it won't matter. The Bearcats will not suffer a letdown and will head into the Holliday game with a 3-0 district record.
Quanah-Shamrock: Quanah is struggling this year, but I still think they are the team to beat in 3-A. The Indians win a close one.
Windthorst at Electra: Both teams need a win bad. Even though the Tigers have struggled (six points scored all season), they have played a brutal schedule and the Trojans will be probably the easiest team they have played to date.
I still think the Trojans will win this game, and they should do it by at least a couple of scores.
Munday at Petrolia: At this time last year, an undefeated Munday team got knocked off by Petrolia. The Moguls are a perfect 5-0 this year too, and this game is on the road.
Munday's non-district schedule has been pretty easy, but I think the Moguls are for real. Petrolia is a solid team, and if they can force some turnovers and limit the big plays, then maybe they can pull an upset.
The Moguls were picked apart by Petrolia's passing game last year, but the Pirates are more run-oriented this year. I will go with Munday by 10.
Let the district games begin.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Breaking down the district races
October 08, 2007I felt a cool breeze when I took the dog out tonight. Not a crisp wave of frigid air, but a nice feeling.
Usually when this happens, that means district football is upon us. And when this happens, I feel compelled to make some fearless high school football predictions.
I wrote some thoughts in my column in Monday's paper, but here is a more-detailed breakdown:
District 5-4A: I think Rider-Denton Ryan will decided the district championship, with the loser taking second place. I am going to go with Rider winning the whole thing.
Denton, Denton Guyer and Denison are all mediocre or worse teams, so that leaves only Sherman and WFHS for third place. Whoever wins that game in two weeks will make the playoffs.
I was impressed with WFHS' offensive production against Ryan. I think Sherman is a good team, and I think this game will be high-scoring. I choose the Coyotes.
District 6-3A: I just can't see anyone beating Graham. I know it is really tough to run the table against these teams, but the Steers are playing so well. That was a good private school team they whipped the other night in Bishop Lynch. And they just tore them up.
So Graham is in, and I think Burkburnett and Vernon are, too. The Bulldogs are playing pretty good defense, and Vernon is tough to stop.
Iowa Park is a sleeper. They have a chance to beat Burkburnett, and if they can do that, they have a chance to make the playoffs.
As far as Hirschi goes, I think they come up short. They are getting guys healthy, but they are not playing with the same precision on offense they did last year. I went out to watch them against SA Lake View because I hadn't seen them play in five weeks.
Neither team caught my eye as playing well, and I left at halftime with Hirschi trailing 14-0. They ended up losing 36-0. I am not sure what happened after halftime, but I will say this. Graham and Vernon are both better than Lake View. And I bet Burk (who I have not seen play yet) is too.
9-2A: Holliday, I am pretty confident, will win district. I say that having seen two of the other four teams play that have a realistic chance of making the playoffs and giving the Eagles a run.
Those four are Olney, Jacksboro, Henrietta and Nocona. Henrietta has already beaten two of those teams. They will face the Eagles in two weeks, and I think that winner makes the playoffs.
Olney must beat Nocona to move on, since the Cubs lost to Henrietta already. The Indians are pretty physical up front, which could give Olney problems.
We will know how good Nocona really is on Friday when they travel to Holliday. Until then, I will choose the same three teams who made it last year -- Holliday, Henrietta and Olney.
District 3-A: Quanah has not lost a district game since dropping down to Class A four years ago. The Indians are a young team, and they might lose a district game, but I am guessing they make the playoffs.
District 9-A: Every coach in this district will tell you it is a hard one. A real hard one.
And I agree. But I think I know who makes the playoffs.
Munday is in, and unless Windthorst really starts to pick it up, I bet the Moguls win the district. They have played some pretty average teams, but they have killed them.
Windthorst has made the playoffs for about 15 seasons in a row, and I just cannot see this changing. Sure, the Trojans haven't play up to their potential. But they have the players who can get the job done.
And in a close, playoff-implicating game, would you trust Windthorst or someone else?
So who gets the third spot. Electra is too young, and I am not sold on Petrolia, although it would not surprise me to see them pull some upsets and sneak in.
It comes down to Archer City and Seymour. Whichever team wins will be in a decent position after the first week. The loser will be 0-1 with games against Munday and Windthorst still ahead. Not a pretty predicament to be in.
So which team do I believe will win the game and make the playoffs? I know, but I will not tell. Check back for my high school predictions for the weekend on Thursday, and you will find out.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 10:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 5 HS predictions
October 04, 2007Before I break down this week's games, let me correct a mistake I made earlier this week. I had written the other day that Windthorst remained ranked since early 2004, when they had started 1-2 after Brad Green had suffered a collarbone injury.
Well, as it turned out, they fell to No. 10 (where they are ranked now) after being shut out to Electra. So 2003 was the last time the Trojans were not ranked.
Now onto Week 5 games:
Denton Ryan at WFHS: The Coyotes have played pretty well, but Denton Ryan picked apart Old High last year. I expect this one to be closer, but I am going to choose the Raiders.
Rider at Denton Guyer: I am going to go with the team who HAS won a varsity game in its existence (that would be Rider for those of you who have just recently emerged from a cave dwelling).
Bishop Lynch at Graham: It is Graham's homecoming, and I am going to be there. Why are these facts significant?
Because the last two homecoming games I have covered this year (Vernon at Decatur; Canadian at Windthorst), the home team has lost. But I don’t think that trend will continue. Steers are the pick.
Vernon at Breckenridge: The Lions won last year on a late field goal. This game is always close, and the home team has won each of the past three. Vernon will be looking to rebound, but I will give a slight edge to the Buckaroos.
SA Lakeview at Hirschi: It seems like every game Hirschi plays, three or four guys end up getting hurt. Injuries are not good for any school, but the Huskies' depth is the least of any area 3A school. Lakeview wins, while Hirschi just hopes to get healthy heading into district.
Burkburnett at Clyde: Clyde has lost to Graham and beaten Vernon. Its third game against a 6-3A team should be a tough test for the Bulldogs, but one I think RB Lyn Barnes and the Bulldogs pass.
Iowa Park at Comanche: From minimal research, I have discovered that Comanche is not very good. And the Hawks are on a roll now. They will enter district with a 3-game win streak.
Chico at Holliday: Holliday. No question.
City View at Nocona: Nocona. Another easy 9-2A one to choose.
Alvord at Olney: The Cubs were manhandled up front last week by Henrietta, but I think they will bounce back against the Bulldogs. If not, their playoff hopes will be quickly dashed.
Henrietta at Jacksboro: Both teams field good defenses, so this one should be a low-scoring affair. I will go with the team coming off the bigger district victory -- Henrietta is the pick.
Windthorst at FW Christian: The Trojans played a great first half against Canadian, then laid a stinker in the third quarter. They are doing some uncharacteristic things -- fumbling snaps, going the wrong way on handoffs -- that I have never seen them do. I will pick FW Christian in a close one, but will not be surprised if the Trojans pull things together.
Next week every district season begins, so check out my district predictions on Monday.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 05:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Shockers and Surprises
October 01, 2007It was an absolutely crazy weekend for college football, but the area's Friday night action had some scores and happenings that raised my eyebrows.
Here are some of my thoughts after Week 4:
SHOCKERS
Iowa Park 21, Bridgeport 7: This one was the biggest. I had heard from at least a couple of coaches that the Bulls would be a favorite to win District 8-3A. They had scored at least 24 points in every game, and one website had them favored by 27 points in this one.
It sounded like IP's secondary did a great job of stopping Bridgeport's passing attack. This outcome, on the road no less, is a huge one for the Hawks, who are improving each game.
Looking up to see Windthorst down 42-0: I've only been covering football around the area since 2002 (and full-time since 2004), so while I have heard about Windthorst's struggles many, many years ago, I have never witnessed it.
And Canadian is a very good team, don't get me wrong. And Windthorst will be fine. But it was still pretty weird to look up at that scoreboard.
Holliday 27, City View 0: I wrote on last week's predictions that I thought the Eagles might take it easy on the Mustangs, who were coming off a 70-0 loss. But I thought they would at least score 30.
And it was a 13-0 lead going into the fourth quarter. From what I have heard from multiple non-affiliated sources, City View played its best game of the year and Holliday didn't go all-out and kept the gameplan simple. Still a surprising score, though.
SURPRISES
Clyde 39, Vernon 21: This was the perfect trap game for Vernon if I ever saw one. Big win last week against Decatur, big game next week against ex-district rival Breckenridge. It is Vernon's Homecoming and Clyde is a pretty good team.
Still I thought the Lions would prevail. And if they didn't, it would be a close game. But this wasn't the case.
Burkburnett 21, Trinity Christian 14: I know Burk's good, but I also read where TCA was the top private school team in the state. Either TCA was overrated, or the Bulldogs are really good. I think it's the latter.
Henrietta 24, Olney 14: This isn't a huge surprise. Henrietta is tough at home and can never be overlooked. The one thing that caught me eye was how dominant the Bearcats' lines were. Olney lost many starters to graduation last year, and I think it showed. The Cubs still have Holliday and Nocona to face, so they cannot afford any more letdowns.
Check back Thursday afternoon for my weekend predictions.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 11:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
