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Week 3 playoff predictions
November 29, 2007So I was talking to Munday coach Patrick Corcoran the other day about his showdown with another unbeaten team in Roscoe.
He said he wanted to avoid a shootout, but then added that doing that might not be a possibility.
Munday-Roscoe headlines a huge week in the high school football playoffs, as teams still alive have started dwindling in our area.
Let's look at that matchup, which reminds me of the unbeaten Windthorst-Goldthwaite tilt a year ago, a little more closely.
Neither team has been tested too much while blowing people out this year. Munday played the best team (Seymour) and also romped over Windthorst and Quanah, other playoff teams.
The one surprising game Roscoe played was when it only beat a 3-7 team in Hamlin by one point. Its other close game was against Albany in district. I do not know why the Hamlin game was that close, but I know Seymour crushed Hamlin pretty good.
That said, I don't think Munday has played a team quite like Roscoe, who has a QB that has thrown for more than 3,000 yards this season. Seymour is probably the most comparable passing-wise, but that is not a very good measure.
So it will be up to Munday to get pressure on Roscoe's QB, and they've done a pretty good job of that this year, averaging about 4 sacks a game. Roscoe has a D-I lineman who is going to OU (who happens to be 6-8 and 325 pounds), so that could be an issue.
Munday wants to keep possession for long periods of time, but its big-play offense may not let them do that. Which is why Corcoran is afraid of the shootout being inevitable.
Bottom line: The winner of this game will be favored to go all the way to the state title game. I think both teams could probably beat Windthorst-Goldthwaite and the Region I winner (probably Sundown). And I think either team has the ability to win this game.
I will pick Munday because it's a toss-up, and I have seen the Moguls play. They really got after Windthorst defensively in the game I saw, and if the Moguls can do that and not turn the ball over (which is also a big factor in who wins this game), then they should pull ahead.
The only thing I can say for sure is that one really good team will be going home too soon on Saturday.
* Rider vs. Lubbock Estacado: There is no way Rider loses this game if it shows up on time and doesn't commit 10 turnovers. The Raiders are a very good team. I am sure Estacado isn't too shabby itself, but Rider just dusted Stephenville next week.
Bring on the Everman-Rider showdown. I can't wait.
* Vernon vs. Seminole: I am not going to lie. I didn't work on this advance story this week, so I have no idea what Seminole does or what they are good at.
I do know the Lions are playing really well right now, and Seminole has four losses. Records don't mean anything at this stage of the season, but Vernon probably shouldn't lose this one. Lions by 10 points, maybe more if they grab an early lead.
* Windthorst vs. Goldthwaite: Can the Trojans win this game in a repeat of last year's clash? Certainly.
I thought Windthorst had a chance of beating Gorman last week, but I didn't pick them. And they did pull the upset.
Still, Goldthwaite is coming off an impressive victory over Albany, and the Trojans' offense only scored 14 points despite the defense providing it with seven turnovers. Sorry Windthorst, but Goldthwaite is the pick. If I am wrong this week too, maybe you will want me to pick against you the rest of the playoffs.
* Seymour vs. Valley Mills: I think the Panthers could go to the state title game.
I know, that's a little weird considering Seymour hadn't been to the playoffs before 1999 entering this season. But I like what Seymour does offensively, and the defense is pretty strong, too.
They took down Valley View last week. I am picking them to beat Valley Mills this week (where, ironically, my in-laws live right now. They are from Wichita Falls, but moved to the Waco area four years ago. So yes, I spend about a week there every year. It's nice and peaceful. But I digress). And if they were playing Valley High -- you know, Bayside's rival in Saved by the Bell -- next week, they would win that one too.
* Northside vs. Woodson: Every logical reason says to pick Woodson. The Cowboys have won 10 straight, they are ranked higher and favored by the websites, and from what I heard, when they lost to Northside last year in the playoffs, they were without one of their best players.
So this is why I am picking Northside. The Indians are still the state champions until proven otherwise, they have almost everyone back from last year and they have looked very impressive so far in the playoffs. This should be another great game.
Good luck to all of our teams still playing this weekend.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 07:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
I have a new girlfriend
November 28, 2007Don't tell my wife, but I have a new girlfriend.
Her name is the high school football playoffs. I'm with her constantly.
We go away on the weekends, leaving my wife to look after the house and three crazy pets (who become even crazier now that we have our Christmas tree up. There's something about cats and not being able to stay away from Christmas trees. Does anyone else have this problem?)
She creeps into my life once a year, sticks around for a few weeks, and then leaves abruptly.
Anyway, this weekend I am hitting the road for the third time in a row (Amarillo, DFW-Stephenville were the first two trips), going to Abilene.
Actually, first I will be at Windthorst-Goldthwaite in Stephenville, before heading to Munday-Roscoe on Saturday night. I may drive out and watch Vernon-Seminole in Sweetwater, too.
I love this time of year, although it makes for some long weeks. But I am beginning to get the feeling my wife can't wait until the end of December comes and the high school football season is over.
Here are a couple of thoughts from last weekend (sorry they are so late), and on Thursday I will make my Week 3 playoff predictions.
* The most miserable weather I have ever covered a football game in was going on Saturday in Stephenville. The cold (35 degrees), plus the rain and gusting winds made me thankful I was in the pressbox for the Graham-Argyle game.
I thought that weather would play into Graham's hands (and Coach McCoy did too), but Argyle had no problems moving the ball. And Graham quarterback Case McCoy completed only one pass.
Graham was one of those teams I thought could go real far (and I was secretly hoping for a Graham-Vernon showdown in two weeks), but I think the Steers might have peaked too soon.
Their two most impressive performances I saw from them this season (Abilene Wylie, Bishop Lynch) occurred in the first half of the season.
After their bye, they barely beat IP, lost to Vernon, beat a tough Burk team but gave up lots of yards to them, struggled for 2 1/2 quarters vs. Dalhart and then lost this game to Argyle.
* Looks like 9-A is still going strong. All three teams are alive, and like last year, there was a 9-A sweep over 11-A at Memorial last Friday.
Munday crushed Collinsville 63-0, which was not all that surprising to me. I saw Windthorst beat Collinsville 63-7 last year in the playoffs. And Seymour took care of business, 29-13 against Valley View.
Windthorst was the biggest surprise, but I was not totally thrown off-guard by its upset of Gorman. Gorman had only beaten one winning team, and Windthorst had played a really tough schedule.
Plus, the fact that Gorman's strengths played into the Trojans' hands, coupled with playoff experience, and you had an upset waiting to happen.
* Rider needs to put away the next tough team it faces. And I am not talking about Lubbock Estacado, either.
Most likely, Rider will get Everman in the regional finals, the same round where the Raiders have lost in 2004 and 2006.
Both times (against Aledo and Frenship) they had chances to win those games. And against Stephenville on Friday, they had chances to put them away but didn't until the very end.
When up on a team by 19 points in the fourth quarter, you gotta go for the jugular. It sounded like Rider didn't, and they nearly paid the price.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 12:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Second-round playoff predictions
November 22, 2007I am totally stuffed. I am sitting on the couch watching my third NFL game of the day (plus Arizona State-Southern Cal) and I do not feel like moving.
I feel like sleeping all the way until Friday afternoon, when I have to get out-and-about to cover the Burkburnett-Abilene Wylie game.
I have basically worthless all day. Gotta love Thanksgiving.
But enough about the holidays. Let's look at this week's playoff games:
*Rider vs. Stephenville: Rider has eliminated Stephenville two of the past three seasons in the playoffs. Both teams have been playing at a high level, and both have only lost once this year.
It's funny -- I was scanning some websites on-line, and noticed where apparently the Yellowjackets came across my boss Nick Gholson's column he wrote this week saying that Rider has better players that Stephenville.
So if the Yellowjackets even thought about overlooking Rider for a second, they will not now. But I don't think it will matter. Rider eliminates Stephenville again in a game that lives up to its billing.
*WFHS vs. Everman: I have been wrong about the Coyotes a lot this season -- against Sherman and last week against Birdville, to name a couple. And Everman, which whipped WFHS in the second week of the season, has not seen Ryan Robison at tailback.
I could see where Everman could overlook WFHS this time around. But I also think Everman is too good. Sorry, but I have to choose against the Coyotes this week.
*Burkburnett vs. Abilene Wylie: The Bulldogs continue to impress me this season, but to beat Wylie in this one, they will have to play a near-perfect game.
Last week, when the Bulldogs held a commanding 28-14 lead at the half, a West Texas area writer said the game was pretty much over. And I said it probably was, unless the Bulldogs started fumbling the football.
And what happens? The Bulldogs lose three fumbles (including an onsides kick), and if a Canyon receiver does not drop an easy TD, then Burk may not be playing this week.
So if Burk wants to play next week, they will have to play their best game of the season. I will choose Wylie.
*Graham vs. Argyle: Argyle QB J.J. Harp is the best passer Graham has seen this year. But I think Graham's offense is the best Argyle has seen this season.
So I will predict a high-scoring affair (one that I hope ends before deadline on Saturday), but I also think Graham pulls it out by depending on Jake Holub, who I bet gets 25 carries, at least.
Vernon vs. Sweetwater: When the teams played five years ago, Vernon won 6-3 in a two-hour game. Coach Keith Hall said it was the quickest game he has ever played.
With both teams keeping the ball on the ground, I expect another quick game. And I expect another Vernon win.
*Henrietta vs. Caddo Mills: Henrietta is a scrappy team with a dynamic quarterback in Seth Crumpton. Caddo Mills has a lot more weapons and a lot less losses than Henrietta. Caddo Mills is the best team Henrietta has played, including the four teams the Bearcats have lost to. Caddo Mills is the pick.
*Munday vs. Collinsville: I have covered Collinsville once in my life. Last year, I saw Windthorst demolish them 63-7 in this very same round of the playoffs at the very same field they will play on Friday.
Are the Moguls as good as Windthorst last year? Not sure. But I do know that I bet Munday wins big.
*Seymour vs. Valley View: This game at Memorial Stadium should be closer, but after witnessing two 9-A teams (Windthorst, Electra) destroy two 11-A teams (Collinsville, Muenster) in last year's playoffs, I cannot go with an 11-A team.
I do not care if Valley View was a district champ. Seymour is really good, and it will win.
*Quanah vs. Sunray: Indians probably lose to Sunray for second year in a row, but the good thing is that 2,000-yard rusher Tevin Mitchell is only a junior.
*Windthorst vs. Gorman: Windthorst can win this game. Gorman's 10-0 record has come against some spotty teams. But the Trojans' offense is in a funk that they cannot seem to get out of. So Gorman is the pick.
*Throckmorton vs. Valley: Greyhounds have too many athletes to not win a game in the playoffs.
*Northside vs. Apple Springs: Northside beat Apple Springs 58-6 in this round last year. Won't be this bad this time around, but the Indians are moving on.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 10:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Who has the best chance of winning?
November 20, 2007I thought about blogging about more random Amarillo stories -- like how I fell while climbing over a fence trying to get to the Bivins Stadium sidelines and how I am glad only a couple of concerned Canyon fans (and nobody who actually knew me) saw me -- but that was last week.
It is the second round of the playoffs, and while I will make my predictions in the next couple of days, I wanted to list in order which teams, in my humble opinion, have the best chance of winning to which ones have the least chance.
That is not to say I think these teams will win or will lose, just that some teams have a better shot of advancing than others.
So here is my list of 13 games, from best chance to worst chance:
1) Munday vs. Collinsville
2) Northside vs. Apple Springs
3) Vernon vs. Sweetwater
4) Seymour vs. Valley View
5) Graham vs. Argyle
6) Rider vs. Stephenville
7) Throckmorton vs. Valley
8) Grandfield vs. Ringwood
9) Quanah vs. Sunray
10) Windthorst vs. Gorman
11) Burkburnett vs. Abilene Wylie
12) WFHS vs. Everman
13) Henrietta vs. Caddo Mills
Posted by Zach Duncan at 06:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Randomness in Amarillo
November 18, 2007Before I head back with Jason Palmer (a TRN photographer) to Wichita Falls tomorrow, I thought I would share some things football and non-football related I witnessed here in Amarillo the past two days.
* District 6-3A, one of the toughest districts in the state, really flexed its muscle this weekend. 3-0 is not too shabby, and Burkburnett's takedown of Canyon was quality.
* And they weren't the only teams whipping up the weekend. Our area teams (counting six-man) went 8-3 over the weekend, with only Nocona, Holliday and Crowell falling. Since four teams were on byes, that means I will have more preview capsules to work on next week than I had this week. Kudos the the victors.
* There will be some big-time games next week: Rider vs. Stephenville may get top billing, but I think Graham-Argyle and Burk-Abilene Wylie will be superb ones too.
And here are some non-football thoughts, most of which were concocted in the Dick Bivins Stadium press box, which acted like a second home these last two days:
* Last time I was at Bivins, they hadn't remodeled yet. But it was really nice - high-speed internet, great seating and set-up. It would be very cool if Memorial Stadium could get an upgrade like this someday, but with the WFISD budget, that's probably not going to happen.
*The people in the press box were great, and whoever made those homemade cookies on Saturday, thank you so much. I think my waistline jumped a size just from scarfing down those things.
*Heard that Graham was going to The Texan to eat after the game. That's the steakhouse where if you eat a 72-ounce steak in an hour, then it is free. I heard that Coach McCoy banned his players from giving it a try. There's a couple of linemen who might have been able to give it a run for the money.
*The coaches from Argyle, which plays Graham next week, flew into Amarillo to scout, stayed for the game, and then flew back to DFW. There were at least five of them -- that had to of cost someone or maybe AISD lots of cash.
* But at least Argyle needed to scout that game. Guess who was also on hand scouting both the Graham-Dalhart and Vernon-Perryton games. A couple of Celina coaches! Celina isn't even in Region I. The soonest it could meet either of those teams is the state semis. Celina will probably get there, but do you need to scout four weeks in advance? And all the way in Amarillo. That makes no sense, but oh well.
* Drove a couple of miles out of town and saw Cadillac Ranch. Pretty neat, but we didn't bring any spray paint.
That pretty much wraps up my weekend in Amarillo. Check back early in the week when I look at some playoff matchups.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 01:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Bi-District Playoff Predictions
November 15, 2007Just because the playoffs have started, don't be surprised if you see a few blowouts this week.
But for the most part, I expect there to be some pretty tight, competitive matchups on Friday and Saturday.
Here are my thoughts on the playoff games involving area teams:
Rider vs. Springtown: This is one of the blowouts I was referring to a couple of paragraphs ago. Springtown won four games this season; Rider may have played in four close games.
The Raiders, even if they are looking ahead to Stephenville next week, will name their score against the Porcupines. At least a 24-point win.
WFHS vs. Birdville: The Coyotes almost won this playoff battle in 2006, and this year's game is at Memorial. WFHS is coming off a bad loss to Rider and has turned the ball over 10 times in the last two weeks.
This game will down to the wire again, but I have a hunch Birdville pulls it out. But who knows. Wouldn't surprise me if WFHS wins.
Graham vs. Dalhart: Here's all you need to know about this game. The Steers won in bi-district last year by a couple of touchdowns.
Graham is playing at a higher level this year, and Dalhart, who was very senior oriented, is not as good. The Steers should win big.
Vernon vs. Perryton: Basically, read the last couple of sentences and sub in Vernon for Graham and Perryton for Dalhart. Lions over a three-win Perryton team, and they make it look easy.
Burkburnett vs. Canyon: The best by far of the District 5-3A vs. 6-3A battles. The Bulldogs have to be one of the best third-place 3A teams in the state, and they really impressed me the way they moved the ball against Graham.
Canyon, a state semifinalist a year ago, has a QB who has thrown for almost 3,000 yards. I've seen Burk play twice this season (vs. Graham and IP) and they did not turn it over at all in those games. I think the Bulldogs can run the ball against Canyon, but can they stop the pass?
We will see. This one is a toss-up, and I will stick with the area's Bulldogs.
Holliday vs. Boyd: Another toss-up. Boyd may be 6-4, but the Yellowjackets have lost to some pretty impressive people (3A's Argyle and Bridgeport, and 2A's Cisco and Gunter). The Eagles cannot let Boyd control the tempo, pounding the ball on the ground.
Holliday can definitely win, but I am still not sure how good they are after some close calls in district. I will choose Boyd (and from what I saw while filling out the TRN high school picks, this game seems to be the most evenly picked).
Henrietta vs. Godley: Not sure how good Godley is, but the Bearcats are pretty solid, nothing flashy though. Henrietta is making the playoffs a yearly occurrence, and I think that experience, coupled with a stingy defense, will be enough for victory.
Nocona vs. Cisco: The Indians were in trouble before their top RB quit the team an moved back to the Metroplex a couple of weeks ago. Now defenses can fully concentrate on QB Hunter Willard like Henrietta did in its win over the Indians last week.
A fact I noticed: Cisco (10-0) has only had one team play it within 34 points this season. The Loboes will cruise to a win in this one, spoiling Nocona's long-awaited playoff debut.
Quanah vs. Bovina: Quanah coach James McDaniel joked to me earlier in the week that when two good teams play a best-of-three series, usually both of those teams will win once.
That would mean Bovina should win this, because Quanah has eliminated it each of the past two seasons. Still, I can't pick against the Indians, who take it by 10.
We will wait and see if I'm right or not, but I expect some good action this week.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 12:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Amarillo by Friday morning
November 13, 2007After I cover Holliday-Boyd Thursday night in Graham, I will be headed to Amarillo Friday for Burkburnett, Vernon and Graham's games against Panhandle teams.
This is the fourth year I have covered high school football full-time at the paper, and the third time I have made the trip to Amarillo.
It is one I usually like making because I get to see 2-3 games in a 24-hour span. And I will never forget the first time I made the trip back in 2004.
I was supposed to cover three games that weekend: Quanah-Stratford, Henrietta-Panhandle (both at Bivins Stadium) and Holliday-Spearman (in Canyon, about 20 miles south).
Henrietta whipped Panhandle 40-20 the first game on Friday night, but with all the scoring, the Quanah game was running late.
While writing the Henrietta win, I was watching Quanah and Stratford engage in a ridiculous shootout. If memory serves me correctly, Quanah took a lead with about two minutes to go, but Stratford drove the field and scored with about 30 seconds left for a 40-35 victory. It was one of the best 10 high school games I have seen.
The game ended past midnight -- maybe 12:15ish. And I remember making final deadline (the early deadline for our area towns had already passed) by a couple of minutes.
The next day I woke up to drive to Canyon, only it started snowing. But not the icy flakes we get here, but huge blizzard-like snowflakes. It was like out of a movie.
The field was covered in snow. You couldn't see yard lines and it was a struggle to identify players from all the way up in the pressbox. And it snowed the entire game.
Holliday won an amazing double overtime game. They rallied to force OT with a last-minute drive, and then had to match Spearman in the first overtime after the Lynx had made a TD and two-point conversion after a botched snap.
The weird thing about that game was Holliday QB Zach Stewart. He hadn't really thrown the football well all year long -- I think he had a couple of zero-yard efforts -- and yet in a total blizzard, the worst condition to throw the ball imaginable, he threw for 200 yards and a couple of scores.
If my trip to Amarillo this weekend is half as exciting, then it will be a good weekend.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Discussing my Red River 22 team
November 12, 2007Now is about the time I sit down and start penciling a rough draft of the Red River Small School 22 team.
To those who've been living in a cave (or just not in the area) the past few years, that's our all-star team that comes out on Christmas Day.
The reason why it comes out so late is because the playoffs are factored into the equation. I may know of some shoe-ins now, but some more guys will emerge once the postseason starts.
I don't want to throw out any names who I think will be on the team right now (just in case I change my mind. Wouldn't want to hurt anyone's feelings), but I will tell you a story that happened a couple of years ago.
I hadn't really considered Quanah's Matthew Hill at running back during his junior year -- I usually have three RB's on the team, and when the playoffs started, he wasn't one of them. That position is usually very competitive.
His numbers were good (about 900 yards) but not great, and from what I had noticed, QB Bubba Claudrick was the catalyst of the offense.
I was in Amarillo covering a host of bi-district games, one being Quanah-Sunray. Hill rushed for more than 100 yards and scored five touchdowns in that game.
Automatically, I had to find a spot for him. THat kind of performance with your season on the line is pretty big-time.
That's not to say your team has to make the postseason. I will probably have an Archer City and Olney representative or two on my squad.
And in case you are wondering, it's not just me picking and choosing who deserves the recognition. First, I scan every all-district list when it comes out to see what coaches think.
I also call up most coaches to pick their brains about making tough calls between two of their players, and ask them what they think about other guys.
Most coaches will tell you (or tell me, at least) who gave them the biggest fits all year.
Anyway, with the playoffs starting, it will be interesting to see who emerges into the fold.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 09:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Five things we learned as the season comes to a close
November 11, 2007*That there is Rider, and that there is everybody else.
Imagine this: You are playing your bitter rival, who is also good enough to be a playoff team. And you are up by 50 points late in the third quarter. Simple incredible. Stephenville and Everman, the two toughest teams in the region, better watch out.
* That there are three really good teams in 6-3A, and not a lot separates them.
I pretty much knew this going into the Graham-Burkburnett game I covered, but I came away from this one more impressed with the Bulldogs, even in a loss.
They were able to move the ball efficiently on the Steers, and they ran on them better than any team I have seen this year. Vernon and both of these teams should have a lot of success in the playoffs. And I bet Burk is the best third-place team in the region.
* That Windthorst should be sending Petrolia some Thank-You cards.
Because if not for the Pirates whipping Archer City, the Trojans would be breaking out the basketballs.
Windthorst's offense has been non-existent in three straight losses (nine points scored -- and six of those coming on a fake punt). The Trojans get a bye this week, but if things do not change soon, they will be one-and-done.
* That when needed, Holliday got the job done.
The Eagles needed to win their last two games, and they did that easily. You can call them the 9-2A champs. But Boyd will be a good first-round test.
* That the playoffs are finally here.
Thank goodness. For me, there comes a time around Week 7 or so when I have a pretty good feeling who is going to make the playoffs and who is not. I get itchy for the playoffs right around then. And while I understand district titles are important, I love watching how the postseason plays out.
Last year I had to miss a playoff weekend because of a surgery, and it was tough listening to some great games on the radio. Won't have that problem again.
And now with the playoffs beginning, check back daily for a new blog (until Thursday that is, when the games start).
Posted by Zach Duncan at 11:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 10 predictions
November 08, 2007OK - this one is going to be short and sweet.
And I have a good reason for this. I just spent 40 minutes writing a long version for you from my home computer (which I was finally able to get on with my password).
When I went to post it, it said I had to relog onto the system, and when I did that, all my work was gone. So to say I'm ticked off right now would be an understatement.
Anyway, I have to do some stuff around the house, or my wife will be very angry. Anyone who is married knows what I mean. I will be blogging more once the playoffs start and I get my power cord back (for an explanation, read the blog before this one).
Onto the picks:
*Rider vs. WFHS: Rider by about 14 points. Too much talent.
*Graham at Burk: Steers win. They don't want to lose two straight.
*Iowa Park at Vernon: Vernon, as long as they don't sit lots of starters.
*Henrietta at Nocona: Indians in a close one.
*Jacksboro at Holliday: No upset here. Eagles take it.
*Alvord at City VIew: Alvord is the pick.
*Chico at Olney: Cubs win big, but don't make the playoffs.
*Electra at Munday: This could get ugly. Moguls by lots and lots.
*Archer CIty at Petrolia: Wildcats take a close one.
*Seymour at Windthorst: Panthers too much for Trojans, who miss out on playoffs for first time since 1994.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Some quick thoughts and my screw-up
November 07, 2007I want to rehash some things I saw/noticed over the weekend in high school football, but I have to be brief about it.
That is because I left my laptop power cord in the Graham coaching office on Friday night, and my laptop juice is almost non-existent. And the problem is, my blog password is only remembered at my laptop.
Not my work computer. Not my home computer. Luckily, I will be covering the Burk-Graham game this weekend, so I will get it back Friday in time to write the game story.
The laptop battery was not my only mistake from that night.
Even though I wrote a decent game story on Vernon's 17-10 win over Graham, I noticed something wrong with it at about 2 a.m. that night while reading the paper that caused me to utter an expletive.
The problem -- and it is a minor one in the scheme of things -- was that I had screwed up the dateline. The game was in Graham, and yet I had written VERNON as the dateline at the start of the story.
The only way I can explain this (I write the deadline before the game, not in the heat of deadline, when most mistakes are made) is that while typing it, I remember talking to the Vernon sportswriter about Vernon. I guess I had Lions on the brain.
So onto some quick thoughts about the weekend:
* Very impressive win by Vernon in Graham. I do not think it's a total reach that these teams could meet in the 3A state quarterfinals. I was most impressed by QB Darien Williams and how he was able to throw the ball. The only other time I saw him this season, he did not have as nearly as good of a night throwing against the Steers.
And I think throwing the ball is the way to beat Graham. Vernon, like every team this season, did not have much success running (except for a couple of fullback dives by Craig Whiteside). Once Vernon's top two running backs got hurt, the Lions did do a good job playing keepaway, running the ball the last 15 plays. But some big passes won them the game.
* Congrats to Nocona and Seymour for making the playoffs. It has been a while.
* As I speak, I still do not know the scenarios for Archer City and Windthorst making the playoffs. That is because I had one coach tell me one way, another coach tell me a different way, someone else saying the second coach was wrong, etc.
Munday's Robert Dillard is the 9-A chairman and he is supposed to be e-mailing me the tiebreak rules sometime soon. I do know this -- if one team wins (they are both 2-2 right now) and the other loses, then the winning team is in.
* I think this is the least dramatic weekend as far as playoffs go in quite some time. Out of our four main 11-man districts, 10 of the 12 spots are clinched. There is still one up for grabs in District 9-2A (either Holliday or Olney, although I think the Eagles will get the job done and get in). The other one is in District 9-A (Windthorst or Archer City).
Usually the 3A district goes down to the wire, but it won't this year. And 5-4A is already taken care of, although seeding will be on the line when Rider-WFHS meet.
Anyway, check back with me for my Week 10 predictions on Thursday. And I am going to try and blog more the week leading up to the playoffs.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Week 9 Predictions
November 01, 2007There are two weeks left in the regular season, and this is the week lots of teams should lock up playoff berths and three of the area's ranked teams square off against tough opponents for district titles.
Let's look at the three big games on Friday's docket: Denton Ryan at Rider; Vernon at Graham; and Munday at Seymour.
* Denton Ryan-Rider: Both offenses are dynamic, and before reading my boss' column today, I would have given the edge to Rider's defense. But it looks like Ryan's defense has surrendered most of its points in the second halves (with backups in), so I can't say whose defense is better.
I do know that Rider is on a roll right now, and that they want to win district badly after falling short last year. It is at home, too, so Rider is the pick.
Chance of an upset: 33 percent.
* Vernon-Graham: I knew this would be a great game before the season even began, and the teams, despite playing tough non-district schedules, have only one loss between them.
Graham struggled against Iowa Park last week because of two reasons -- turnovers and failure to block well in the passing game. The Steers probably will not turn the ball over as much in this one, but here is one thing I do find interesting.
Is it possible Coach Ellis and IP found a chink in Graham's explosive offense. If they did, it is something Coach McCoy and the Steers better fix because Vernon has more athleticism than IP does.
Still, the Lions may be facing their toughest run defense all season, and they will need to hit a couple of passes early to loosen things up (like they did in beating Burkburnett two weeks ago). The real question is -- Was Graham's narrow win last week only a hiccup or something more. Having seen Graham post two solid wins this season (Abilene Wylie and Bishop Lynch), I think it was a hiccup. Graham bounces back this week.
Chance of an upset: 40 percent.
* Munday-Seymour: I don't want to say I underestimated Munday before watching them last week. I think it was maybe a little more of thinking Windthorst (which I had watched lose to Holliday and Canadian) was better than I thought they were. I still think the Trojans are a playoff team, but the Moguls are a terrific team.
I think Seymour will play Munday closer than Windthorst did because they have a more dynamic quarterback in Hayden Holub. The Panthers have won five straight and are going to be a threat in the Div. I playoffs.
If Seymour wants to win this game, it will have to win the turnover battle, hit on some big passes and not let the Moguls' offense get rolling. Plus, Munday would probably need to stall some inside the 20 like they did last week. I just think the Moguls are too good to let all this happen. Plus, they will remember Seymour ruining their 2006 season with an upset.
It could be a close game, and it a rivalry game, so you never know how those games will play out. But I can see a 14-point win and district title for Munday.
Chance of an upset: 20 percent.
Now on to the rest of Friday's games:
* WFHS at Denison: The Coyotes are playing their best football of the season right now, and with a chance to head to the postseason, they should lock this one up with few problems.
* Burkburnett at Hirschi: The Bulldogs lost last time these two teams met, but don't think for a second that will happen again. Burkburnett, playing in a rare Saturday game, runs the ball well and Hirschi cannot stop the run. Big win for the Bulldogs.
* Olney at Jacksboro: The Cubs still have a chance at the playoffs after upsetting Holliday. Jacksboro is out of the mix, after being on the short end of three very close contests. The Tigers could definitely win this game, but a focused Olney team eeks out a win.
*Holliday at Alvord: Was last week's loss the game that lit a fire under the Eagles for the rest of the season? I cannot answer that, but suddenly the Eagles are fighting for a playoff spot, and even with a win, still would to beat Jacksboro next week. I think the Eagles get it done this week, but wouldn't be surprised if this is another close one.
* Nocona at Chico: Congrats to Nocona for its first playoff berth since 1996. An easy win against winless Chico will get that done.
* Henrietta at City View: Congrats to Henrietta for another playoff appearance (their fifth in a row). City View is coming off a great victory, but the Bearcats will bring them down to Earth a little.
* Windthorst at Archer City: The Trojans need to top Archer City to make the playoffs. Can they -- without a doubt. But there are no guarantees. Still, I think the Trojans get the job done.
* Petrolia-Electra: Man, it has been a tough year for the Tigers. They have lost every district game by at least 50 points. And they still have to play Munday. And they will lose this game by a pretty decent margin as Petrolia wins its first district game.
Check back over the weekend when we look at how everything turned out.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 11:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
