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Week 3 playoff predictions
November 29, 2007So I was talking to Munday coach Patrick Corcoran the other day about his showdown with another unbeaten team in Roscoe.
He said he wanted to avoid a shootout, but then added that doing that might not be a possibility.
Munday-Roscoe headlines a huge week in the high school football playoffs, as teams still alive have started dwindling in our area.
Let's look at that matchup, which reminds me of the unbeaten Windthorst-Goldthwaite tilt a year ago, a little more closely.
Neither team has been tested too much while blowing people out this year. Munday played the best team (Seymour) and also romped over Windthorst and Quanah, other playoff teams.
The one surprising game Roscoe played was when it only beat a 3-7 team in Hamlin by one point. Its other close game was against Albany in district. I do not know why the Hamlin game was that close, but I know Seymour crushed Hamlin pretty good.
That said, I don't think Munday has played a team quite like Roscoe, who has a QB that has thrown for more than 3,000 yards this season. Seymour is probably the most comparable passing-wise, but that is not a very good measure.
So it will be up to Munday to get pressure on Roscoe's QB, and they've done a pretty good job of that this year, averaging about 4 sacks a game. Roscoe has a D-I lineman who is going to OU (who happens to be 6-8 and 325 pounds), so that could be an issue.
Munday wants to keep possession for long periods of time, but its big-play offense may not let them do that. Which is why Corcoran is afraid of the shootout being inevitable.
Bottom line: The winner of this game will be favored to go all the way to the state title game. I think both teams could probably beat Windthorst-Goldthwaite and the Region I winner (probably Sundown). And I think either team has the ability to win this game.
I will pick Munday because it's a toss-up, and I have seen the Moguls play. They really got after Windthorst defensively in the game I saw, and if the Moguls can do that and not turn the ball over (which is also a big factor in who wins this game), then they should pull ahead.
The only thing I can say for sure is that one really good team will be going home too soon on Saturday.
* Rider vs. Lubbock Estacado: There is no way Rider loses this game if it shows up on time and doesn't commit 10 turnovers. The Raiders are a very good team. I am sure Estacado isn't too shabby itself, but Rider just dusted Stephenville next week.
Bring on the Everman-Rider showdown. I can't wait.
* Vernon vs. Seminole: I am not going to lie. I didn't work on this advance story this week, so I have no idea what Seminole does or what they are good at.
I do know the Lions are playing really well right now, and Seminole has four losses. Records don't mean anything at this stage of the season, but Vernon probably shouldn't lose this one. Lions by 10 points, maybe more if they grab an early lead.
* Windthorst vs. Goldthwaite: Can the Trojans win this game in a repeat of last year's clash? Certainly.
I thought Windthorst had a chance of beating Gorman last week, but I didn't pick them. And they did pull the upset.
Still, Goldthwaite is coming off an impressive victory over Albany, and the Trojans' offense only scored 14 points despite the defense providing it with seven turnovers. Sorry Windthorst, but Goldthwaite is the pick. If I am wrong this week too, maybe you will want me to pick against you the rest of the playoffs.
* Seymour vs. Valley Mills: I think the Panthers could go to the state title game.
I know, that's a little weird considering Seymour hadn't been to the playoffs before 1999 entering this season. But I like what Seymour does offensively, and the defense is pretty strong, too.
They took down Valley View last week. I am picking them to beat Valley Mills this week (where, ironically, my in-laws live right now. They are from Wichita Falls, but moved to the Waco area four years ago. So yes, I spend about a week there every year. It's nice and peaceful. But I digress). And if they were playing Valley High -- you know, Bayside's rival in Saved by the Bell -- next week, they would win that one too.
* Northside vs. Woodson: Every logical reason says to pick Woodson. The Cowboys have won 10 straight, they are ranked higher and favored by the websites, and from what I heard, when they lost to Northside last year in the playoffs, they were without one of their best players.
So this is why I am picking Northside. The Indians are still the state champions until proven otherwise, they have almost everyone back from last year and they have looked very impressive so far in the playoffs. This should be another great game.
Good luck to all of our teams still playing this weekend.
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