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Week 9 Predictions
November 01, 2007There are two weeks left in the regular season, and this is the week lots of teams should lock up playoff berths and three of the area's ranked teams square off against tough opponents for district titles.
Let's look at the three big games on Friday's docket: Denton Ryan at Rider; Vernon at Graham; and Munday at Seymour.
* Denton Ryan-Rider: Both offenses are dynamic, and before reading my boss' column today, I would have given the edge to Rider's defense. But it looks like Ryan's defense has surrendered most of its points in the second halves (with backups in), so I can't say whose defense is better.
I do know that Rider is on a roll right now, and that they want to win district badly after falling short last year. It is at home, too, so Rider is the pick.
Chance of an upset: 33 percent.
* Vernon-Graham: I knew this would be a great game before the season even began, and the teams, despite playing tough non-district schedules, have only one loss between them.
Graham struggled against Iowa Park last week because of two reasons -- turnovers and failure to block well in the passing game. The Steers probably will not turn the ball over as much in this one, but here is one thing I do find interesting.
Is it possible Coach Ellis and IP found a chink in Graham's explosive offense. If they did, it is something Coach McCoy and the Steers better fix because Vernon has more athleticism than IP does.
Still, the Lions may be facing their toughest run defense all season, and they will need to hit a couple of passes early to loosen things up (like they did in beating Burkburnett two weeks ago). The real question is -- Was Graham's narrow win last week only a hiccup or something more. Having seen Graham post two solid wins this season (Abilene Wylie and Bishop Lynch), I think it was a hiccup. Graham bounces back this week.
Chance of an upset: 40 percent.
* Munday-Seymour: I don't want to say I underestimated Munday before watching them last week. I think it was maybe a little more of thinking Windthorst (which I had watched lose to Holliday and Canadian) was better than I thought they were. I still think the Trojans are a playoff team, but the Moguls are a terrific team.
I think Seymour will play Munday closer than Windthorst did because they have a more dynamic quarterback in Hayden Holub. The Panthers have won five straight and are going to be a threat in the Div. I playoffs.
If Seymour wants to win this game, it will have to win the turnover battle, hit on some big passes and not let the Moguls' offense get rolling. Plus, Munday would probably need to stall some inside the 20 like they did last week. I just think the Moguls are too good to let all this happen. Plus, they will remember Seymour ruining their 2006 season with an upset.
It could be a close game, and it a rivalry game, so you never know how those games will play out. But I can see a 14-point win and district title for Munday.
Chance of an upset: 20 percent.
Now on to the rest of Friday's games:
* WFHS at Denison: The Coyotes are playing their best football of the season right now, and with a chance to head to the postseason, they should lock this one up with few problems.
* Burkburnett at Hirschi: The Bulldogs lost last time these two teams met, but don't think for a second that will happen again. Burkburnett, playing in a rare Saturday game, runs the ball well and Hirschi cannot stop the run. Big win for the Bulldogs.
* Olney at Jacksboro: The Cubs still have a chance at the playoffs after upsetting Holliday. Jacksboro is out of the mix, after being on the short end of three very close contests. The Tigers could definitely win this game, but a focused Olney team eeks out a win.
*Holliday at Alvord: Was last week's loss the game that lit a fire under the Eagles for the rest of the season? I cannot answer that, but suddenly the Eagles are fighting for a playoff spot, and even with a win, still would to beat Jacksboro next week. I think the Eagles get it done this week, but wouldn't be surprised if this is another close one.
* Nocona at Chico: Congrats to Nocona for its first playoff berth since 1996. An easy win against winless Chico will get that done.
* Henrietta at City View: Congrats to Henrietta for another playoff appearance (their fifth in a row). City View is coming off a great victory, but the Bearcats will bring them down to Earth a little.
* Windthorst at Archer City: The Trojans need to top Archer City to make the playoffs. Can they -- without a doubt. But there are no guarantees. Still, I think the Trojans get the job done.
* Petrolia-Electra: Man, it has been a tough year for the Tigers. They have lost every district game by at least 50 points. And they still have to play Munday. And they will lose this game by a pretty decent margin as Petrolia wins its first district game.
Check back over the weekend when we look at how everything turned out.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 11:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Comments
Well Seymour was able to win the turnover battle 4-0, two of which were INT's inside their own 20, one in the endzone. Despite winning the turnover battle, the Mogul defense was just too much for the Panthers!!!
