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Week 4 playoff predictions
December 06, 2007My life the past four weeks can best be summarized by that Johnny Cash song "I've Been Everywhere."
While driving back from Abilene at 2:30 a.m. last Saturday, I was figuring out that I've driven about 1,500 miles the past three weeks covering high school football.
In a span of 17 days, I saw nine different games involving six different teams in six different locales.
There are four games on the docket this weekend, and I'll be at two of them. Let's break them down:
* Rider vs. Everman: I'm not going to act like I know a whole lot about these teams because I only cover the area schools. But both are legit contenders for the state title.
Rider is more two-dimensional on offense -- Everman runs a ridiculous amount and does it well --so if the Raiders can stuff them at the line of scrimmage, then they should be in good shape.
The Raiders have never made it past this mark in school history. Surely, Ponder and his guys can get over the regional final curse that plagued them in winnable games in 2004 and 2006.
That's why I will pick Rider. Finally, the state semifinals.
* Vernon vs. Snyder: The first of my two games I will see. Vernon has not been tested so far in the playoffs like Snyder will test them, and the Tigers have a 2,700-yard tailback.
But Vernon has been great stopping the run all year with the exception of the Clyde game (which they lost) and the Graham game (which they nearly lost).
Still, I think the Lions, who are usually a top-notch specials teams squad, will make enough plays to limit Snyder. And I think the Lions can score enough to win, but not by much.
* Seymour vs. Sunray: The Panthers, especially QB Hayden Holub, are on a roll. If Sunray wants to succeed in playing for a state championship, they must stop Holub.
And I don't think they will. While I hate to compare scores to make playoff picks, Sunray only beat Quanah 6-0 two weeks ago. I think Seymour could handle Quanah like they have handled the last two games (combined score: 49-23). So the Panthers win by 10 out in Lubbock.
* Munday vs. Windthorst: I have given a lot of thought to this game. I think Munday will win unless they give the Trojans a short field with turnovers (like Goldthwaite did last week).
But I can also see this game going two ways:
1) Windthorst comes out with nothing to lose; Green uses tons of trick plays; Munday, coming off a huge win last week vs. Roscoe, is a little tight and may be sluggish; maybe Windthorst gets an early lead (which Roscoe wasn't able to do). If this happens, I can see Munday barely surviving the upset bid, and with a few turnovers, have a slight chance of losing.
2) I know it was a 30-point game last time and Munday had two defensive touchdowns, so Windthorst people might say it was only a two-TD difference and the Trojans are playing better now than then.
But Munday reached Windthorst's 20-yard line four times and didn't score. So Munday also could have really blown them away. Even though Windthorst has a different QB this time around and is playing better, I still like the Moguls' skill players and defense better.
My pick here is Munday, and I'll go somewhere in the neighborhood of 13-17 points. But anything less or more would not surprise me in the least bit.
Posted by Zach Duncan at 03:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Comments
He meant Sunray beat Quanah 6-0. Go Moguls and Panthers, ALL THE WAY TO STATE! Reppin' District 9!
