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Week 4 predictions
September 25, 2008We will make this quick since I just went 12 rounds with the lawn and am wiped out.
Here is what I am thinking for this week's games:
* Denton Ryan at Rider: Lots of points will be scored. Surely, Rider will not fall to 0-4 (although I think I said they would not fall to 0-3 last week). Still, Rider by a couple scores.
* WFHS at Denton: I think some of our area 2A schools could beat Denton. The Broncos are bad. WFHS will cruise by a lot.
* Hirschi at Gainesville: It would be great for Huskies coach Neil Searcy to come back to his hometown and can a win, especially after Gainesville kinda spurned for its opening last year. Still, I think the Leopards are better.
* Vernon at Clyde: Vernon has the lowest passing average in the area, with only Burkburnett in its vicinity. The only difference is the Bulldogs run the ball well; the Lions, not so much.
Hard to believe the Lions have not scored more than 14 points in a game yet. Clyde wins in a squeaker.
* Glen Rose at Graham: Just a hunch, but I like the Steers. Saw some good things from them last Friday.
* Iowa Park vs. Robinson: Until the Hawks find some defense, I am going to have to pick against them.
* Burkburnett at FW Eastern Hills: Nothing is stopping the Bulldogs right now.
* Holliday at Jacksboro: This could end up being a pretty good game. But the Eagles have outscored the Jackrabbits 59-0 in the last two years. Holliday by 10.
* Paradise at Nocona: I am hoping to see a good game here. Nocona may be the team to beat in 5-2A. I will pick them to win, and if they do, the Indians will be looking strong into district.
* Henrietta at Chico: The Bearcats by as many as they want.
* Bowie vs. Van Alstyne: I don't think Paradise is 24 points better than Bowie, sounded like that game got out of control quick. Still, I like Van Alstyne in a close game.
*nOlney at Munday: Nothing would surprise me in this one. But it seems like the Moguls are playing better, and QB Rob Dillard is a real playmaker.
* Lindsay at Archer City: Wildcats by a lot. We will say 21 points.
* Electra at Memphis: The Tigers could lose to a 4-A team for the second time in as many weeks. This game should be closer, though.
* Stamford at Windthorst: I would real sorry for the Trojans if they head into the bye week with two straight losses. Cannot imagine Coach Green would be very happy about that. If they can hang on to the football, they win. That simple.
Posted by at 5:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Chance at perfection either way
September 24, 2008Right now four weeks into the season, there are six area teams with spotless records and seven that are still looking for its first win.
So I thought we could look at which games would stand in the way of perfection, and for the winless teams, which chance represents the best chance at a victory:
Unbeaten:
Burkburnett (4-0) -- The first three district games will be the toughest, but no doubt the 5-3A opener at Bridgeport on Oct. 10 is going to be the most difficult test.
Archer City (3-0) -- The Wildcats haven't really been tested yet in non-district. That will change in the 9-A opener on Oct. 10 against Windthorst.
Holliday (4-0) -- Eagles have a couple tough non-district road games they could lose: Oct. 17 at Nocona; Oct. 31 at Henrietta.
Nocona: (4-0) -- Paradise has already handed two 5-2A teams a loss this season. The Indians will try to avoid that this Friday.
Northside (3-0) -- Follett will be a tough game this week, but Throckmorton in the last regular season matchup should be for 10-0.
Throckmorton (4-0) -- Greyhounds also play Follett in two weeks, but the Northside game should be for all the marbles.
Winless
Iowa Park (0-4) -- Hawks are improving, and they should be able to beat Hirschi on a Saturday afternoon game.
Hirschi (0-4) -- If Huskies fail to beat a 1-3 Gainesville squad this week, then Iowa Park would be their only other chance.
City View (0-4) -- Realistically, the best chance was last week against Chico and Perrin-Whitt in Week 1. On texasfootballratings.com, they are at least a 28-point underdog in every game from here on out.
Petrolia (0-4) -- Pirates could not get it done against Muenster last week, but they still have a chance against Electra in the district opener.
Chillicothe (0-4) -- Should take down Wichita Christian this week.
Wichita Christian (0-3) and Notre Dame (0-3) -- I am not going to pretend to know anything about these school's district opponents. Maybe Brownwood Victory and Joshua Christian are good. Maybe not. So right now both teams' best chances at a win are they play each other on Halloween.
Posted by at 3:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 3 observations
September 23, 2008By now you know Rider is 0-3. But it is still hard to believe.
I have little doubt they will win district, especially if they beat Denton Ryan this Friday. But do these three losses foreshadow another close playoff defeat?
I guess we will have to wait and see. Other thoughts from the weekend:
* Graham-Iowa Park was a battle of winless teams, but I saw some good things from both going forward.
The Steers were able to move the ball better than they had at any time this year, and the defense definitely improved as the game wore on. I still do not think Graham will make the playoffs, but it has a lot better shot than I would have given them a week ago.
Iowa Park is just so young and thin in some spots. The quarterback Lee Clubb is real impressive, and they have some young skill kids who can make plays.
Unfortunately, I think it is a 1-9 season for the Hawks (with the one win being Hirschi). They are struggling on defense and have played a pretty hard schedule.
* After scoring 40 points in a half against Olney, Windthorst scored zero versus Alvord in a 14-0 loss. Sounds like turnovers continue to plague the Trojans. They will need to get that fixed by the 9-A opener against Archer City.
* I know Vernon is struggling on offense, but I thought it would score more than 14 points against Breckenridge. One of those touchdowns was on defense. It might be a longer year than usual for the Lions.
If there is a bright spot, though, it is Decatur (whom I think will battle Vernon for the third 5-3A playoff spot) lost to Argyle 45-0. The Lions only lost to the Eagles, 28-14.
* Biggest surprise: I thought Bowie could lose to Paradise (was the only one who picked against them), but by 24 points! Sounded like the game turned ugly early and snowballed from there.
Paradise will be a good measuring stick for some of the teams in 5-2A. They beat Henrietta by 7, beat Bowie by 24 and take on 4-0 Nocona team on Friday.
* It looks like it could be another long year for Hirschi and City View. Both teams had a decent chance to break into the win column Friday.
The Huskies lost to Holliday, 42-13. They may have a shot against Gainesville this week, but lose that one and 0-10 is a real possibility.
City View likely had its best chance already in a 45-25 loss to Chico. The Mustangs moved the ball well, but could not stop the Dragons.
Posted by at 11:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 3 predictions
September 18, 2008I have been thinking it for weeks. Texasfootballratings.com backed me up yesterday.
Usually after a couple of weeks, the Texas high school football website, which has ratings for every team, predicts how a team will finish if the season ended now (based on those rankings).
Then they simulate the playoffs, and the results from this area were not pretty.
WFHS does not make it in 4A, and Vernon is left out in 3A (making Burk the only 3A in that class.) Burk also gets blown out by China Spring after its bye.
Among the three area 2A teams, two lose in the first round (to Clyde and Cisco). Quanah does not make it in A (it seems like their district is pretty tough this year) and two of the 9-A teams are out the first week after their bye.
Not counting Rider, Windthorst is the only area 11-man team still standing after the second week.
That is because the website has Seymour edging out Munday for third, sending the Panthers onto Div. I. Which means Archer City, the district winner, goes Div. II and runs into a very good Roscoe team right off the bat.
That's exactly what happened to Munday last year, but they were able to take down the Plowboys. This prediction also had Windthorst losing to Roscoe in the state quarterfinals.
Just something I found interesting. Now onto this week's predictions:
* Rider at Tyler John Tyler: If Rider only turns the ball over 2-3 times a game, it would be 2-0 and still ranked No. 2 in the state. Tyler John Tyler is good, but I believe this is the week the Raiders finally get on track.
* Holliday at Hirschi: An intriguing matchup, indeed. Hirschi obviously has more speed, but here is two reasons why I will pick the Eagles to win by about 10.
First, they average almost 300 rushing yards per game, while Hirschi averages 35. And Holliday has turned the ball over twice this year, while Hirschi has made nine in the last two games.
The Huskies may hit on some big plays, and getting back RB Darius Thornton should help, but I do not think it will be enough.
* Graham at Iowa Park: Someone has to win, right? Neither teams has looked to sharp and this has all the makings of a shootout. Somehow, I think Graham would have beaten Holliday (IP lost 21-14 last week), and the Steers have the better QB, although Lee Clubb has looked good too. Graham in a close and hopefully deadline-friendly one, since I will be there.
* Breckenridge at Vernon: The Lions have struggled offensively biut should put up plenty of points against the Buckaroos in a rout.
* Gainesville at Burkburnett: The impressive wins keep on piling up for the Bulldogs, who have not allowed any points in the first half so far. Burk wins big against a mediocre Leopard squad.
* Paradise at Bowie: This should be a great game, but I think Paradise wins it. Do not really know why, I liked the Bowie team I saw last week. The Panthers have some impressive wins too, and I think they will find a way to win.
* Nocona vs. Callisburg: How good are the Indians? That is a legit question, because they have not played a decent team yet in three blowouts. This will be a good test, one they should pass. Next week against Paradise should be even harder.
* Jacksboro at Olney: The Tigers looked strong against Bowie last week. And what did the Cubs do? They lost to Windthorst by 32 points, thanks to several turnovers. Makes this pick pretty easy.
* City View at Chico: I heard KFDX reported a City View win at first on last week's Friday night show. There is a chance that could be accurate this week. The Mustangs have won only one game in the last three years, and it came against the Dragons. Instead, I will go with the home team in a competitive game.
* Windthorst at Alvord: Alvord has crushed its three opponents this year, but have not faced a strong team yet. The Trojans have already played against two decent 2A programs, and should be ready to beat their second in a row. Windthorst by 10-14.
* Seymour vs. Hamlin: I know the Pied Pipers beat Quanah. I also know the Panthers are getting better. Both have new coaches, but I like the way Seymour is coming along, so I will give them the win.
* Quanah at Munday: Both teams have been a little bit of a disappointment so far. But I think Munday will begin to turn things around, and it starts with a win here.
* Electra vs. Wellington: Coach Stewart said this team may be the best they have played so far. The Tigers have already lost to Alvord and Holliday, and I can see another L here.
* Petrolia vs. Muenster: Neither team is that good, but Petrolia did score first against Henrietta the other day. That is good enough reason for me to pick them.
Posted by at 12:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Too much time on my hands
September 15, 2008So I was sitting around the house, and after blogging about covering Bowie and Jacksboro for the first time, I decided to go back and see how many times I have covered each team.
I have been covering games since 2002 (as a full-time writer since 2004), a little bit more than a 100 or so (told you I had too much time on my hands).
Here's a list of the teams I have covered, with their won-loss record and a note with some of them. Windthorst easily leads the list with 26. Here they are:
Team Games W/L Note
Archer City 2 (1-1)
Bowie 1 (1-0) First game was last week
Burkburnett 11 (5-6) Most of these came after 3A drop
City View 6 (3-3) All of these came in 02-03 when they were good
Electra 11 (3-8) One of few with losing record
Graham 13 (8-5)
Henrietta 12 (7-5)
Hirschi 4 (2-2) Only cover this city team here and there
Holliday 16 (12-4) Second most team
Iowa Park 11 (7-4)
Jacksboro 1 (0-1) First game was last week
Munday 3 (3-0) All came during last year's title run
Olney 7 (2-5)
Petrolia 2 (0-2)
Quanah 4 (2-2)
Rider 1 (0-1) Did one in Ponder's 1st year
Seymour 3 (1-2) Two of these came last year
Throckmorton 1 (1-0)
Vernon 12 (7-5)
Windthorst 26 (19-7) So many because of several deep playoff runs
WFHS 2 (1-1)
Posted by at 11:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 2 observations
In my four-plus years of being the area high school football writer for this paper, I have covered lots and lots of teams.
Windthorst, with its deep playoff runs, probably tops the list. Holliday, Iowa Park, Vernon, Henrietta and Graham are all up there too.
There were still three 11-Man area teams I had not covered in person, and two of them were crossed off the list Friday as I went to watch Bowie and Jacksboro square off (Nocona is the other, FYI).
I thought both teams looked good, although Bowie left some points on the board with a turnover and loss on downs inside the 5-yard line.
And speaking of that, here is something that has always bothered me. Bowie was just the latest example of this.
Fourth and 1 from the 1-yard line. It kills me when spread offenses still operate from shotgun when all they need is a couple of feet for a first down or touchdown.
Just get under center and QB sneak it. You got a better chance of getting in that way -- in my opinion -- that from a handoff from 4 yards away.
Back to topic -- I thought it was a highly competitive game, and I will be pretty shocked if either team misses out on the playoffs.
Other thoughts:
* I think the area is down a little this year, especially in the higher classes. As I wrote today, take out Burkburnett, and the 3A/4A schools are 2-14. Rider will be fine, but WFHS and Vernon are not the playoff locks I thought they would be at the start of the season.
* I like my District 9-A preseason picks right now: Archer City and WIndthorst battling it out for first, with Munday-Seymour facing off for third.
* There are three 3-0 teams in 5-2A, and if I had to rank them in order of impressiveness against tough competition, I would have it in this order: 1. Bowie; 2. Holliday and 3. Nocona.
The Indians, though, have a couple of really tough games coming up. No more patsies on their schedule.
* The next couple of week's non-district games are kinda bland. I wrote a story in the preseason section about all the great September matchups, but one of the problems is that Olney -- which faces Munday, Jacksboro and Windthorst -- is not nearly as good as expected without Pittman.
Combine that with some sluggish starts (like who would expect the Graham-Iowa Park game to be a matchup of winless teams) and it leaves something to be desired.
Bowie-Paradise is interesting this week, and Nocona-Paradise and Holliday-Jacksboro should be competitive next week.
Do not fret. On Oct. 10, when all the area's six-team districts start, there are plenty of great matchups: Burkburnett-Bridgeport; Archer City-Windthorst, Bowie-Henrietta and Munday-Seymour.
Posted by at 5:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 2 predictions
September 11, 2008It is about four hours until Rider hits prime time, so it is the perfect time to make my predictions for this week's action.
Two weeks of football are in the books, so some certainties have become transparent. But at about this time last year, Seymour was 1-2. No one dared think the Panthers had a state title run in them.
So a lot can happen over these next weeks. Here are my predictions based on how things are going so far.
* Rider at Sulphur Springs: Rider suffered a tough loss last week because of too many turnovers. It seems like they have fallen short in a couple big games because of that (like two years ago against Frenship).
There are a couple reasons why I like the Raiders in this game. First, they have a little more talent than Sulphus Springs has. And second, Rider has played in several more "huge" games the past couple years, so I do not think the big stage will worry them as much.
* Denison at WFHS: It sounded like the Coyotes played one good quarter and three disastrous ones against Everman last week.
That will not cut it against an old district foe. But I think WFHS rebounds and wins by about 10-14.
*Hirschi at Breckenridge: Neither team is off to a good start, and while I don't know much about the Buckaroos, I know this about Hirschi.
It has rushed for only 80 yards in two games and given up 680 yards during that span. Plus, it is hard to pick the team that lost 58-7 in this matchup last year. That was the Huskies, and that loss triggered a current nine-game losing streak.
So I will reluctantly pick Breckenridge, but a Hirschi win will not surprise me.
* Graham at Burkburnett: This pick is easier than I would have thought at the beginning of the season. The Bulldogs, with lots of experience, are playing at a pretty high level.
Graham, which starts several youngsters, is a work in progress. Burk rolls to a pretty easy victory.
* Vernon at Argyle: I have seen both of these teams, and am going with Argyle for a couple of reasons. The Eagles' QBs are young, which is why a Burkburnett secondary gave a clinic with five interceptions. But Vernon's secondary is equally inexperienced, which could cause some problems.
Also, I was impressed with how Argyle, for the most part, stopped the run last week. And that is Vernon's strength. The Lions are not doing a whole lot on offense right now, either. That is why I am choosing Argyle in a close one.
Iowa Park vs. Holliday: This game got moved to Saturday at Memorial Stadium because of a flooded field. It will be a good measuring stick for both teams, too.
I think the Hawks (0-2) need a win more than the Eagles (2-0), but I am not so sure they get it. Holliday pulls this one out.
* Olney at Windthorst: The Trojans win this game if they do not turn the ball over. But since they have 10 turnovers in two games, nothing is guaranteed. Still, I like Windthorst by a touchdown in a closer game than expected.
* Bowie at Jacksboro: This is where I will be at. I have been wrong at both Friday night games I have covered this year, so take this with a grain of salt. Still, I think Bowie has more firepower on offense. So the Jackrabbits get the win.
* City View at Electra: The Tigers have lost 13 straight, but that streak comes to an end because I see Electra as a more improved team than last year. Do not know if the same can be said for the Mustngs.
* Petrolia at Henrietta: Henrietta has lost about nine or 10 non-district games in a row. But Petrolia has failed to score a single point in two losses this year. Both trends may end, but the Bearcats will have an easy time with things.
* Chico-Archer City: Cannot tell you off the top of my head who the home team even is (and am too lazy to look it up). I can tell you that the Wildcats will win in a rout.
* Seymour-Ralls: Surely, the Panthers get into the win column this week after playing Olney close last Friday. Seymour is the pick, as Castles gets his first career coaching win.
* Munday-Jim Ned: When in doubt (and all I know about Jim Ned is that they are 0-2 and both these schools lost to Stamford), pick the defending stat champ. It is a great rule to live by. Munday wins.
Posted by at 5:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Week 1 observations
September 10, 2008Here are some of my thoughts after the Sept. 5 weekend:
* Watched Burkburnett handle a pretty good Argyle team last week. I thought it was a better performance for the Bulldogs than its 10-6 opener against Sweetwater.
This team has a really good chance to enter 5-3A unbeaten and I cannot see Burk failing to make the playoffs.
As good as its defense is though, a couple of things worry me. The passing game will need to improve at some point for a lengthy playoff run to happen. And the offense really needs to cash in turnovers. Not putting teams away will come back and bite you.
* Last week, I was impressed by Bowie's win over Boyd. This week -- well, nothing was too shocking either way.
I thought Windthorst would have beaten Lindsay by a wider margin (and probably would have if not for 6 turnovers) and Vernon's close game against Altus was a little eye-catching.
The Lions have been drilling Altus for years now. So either Altus has gotten better, or Vernon may be a little down this year. They hung with Abilene Wylie in a game I covered last week, and Wylie almost beat the No. 1 team in the state.
But the Lions are also struggling to move the ball. Iowa Park is averaging more total yards than them. Vernon will get anther tough test against Argyle this week.
* How good are Holliday, Bowie, Windthorst, Nocona and Vernon? Are they just-playoff good, or are they make-a-deep-run good? We will see in the coming weeks.
* My Top 10 came out in Sunday's paper, and I am happy with the first five teams: Rider (a state title contender), Grandfield (Oklahoma Class C runner-up), Northside (very big win against good Valley squad), Burkburnett and Archer City (who does not play a real tough team until district).
The next five: Holliday, Bowie, WFHS, Vernon and Windthorst. All are playing decent teams this week, and all would probably need to win to stay in my poll.
* Just now did recall a shocker from last weekend. Quanah, which was a huge favorite over Hamlin, losing a crazy game, 36-32.
The Indians are always good, and I'm sure they will get things straightened out, but this was a bad loss. Hamlin got drilled by Anson pretty bad the week before. That is the same team Quanah plays this week.
* One last thing -- Burk coach Bill Dalke kidded with me Friday after the Bulldogs won about not selecting them to win. I was proven wrong on that one.
But it was one of my few mistakes. With the week's best record, I vaulted to the top of the periscope standings. Among the against-the-grain picks I made were Perrin-Whitt over City View (I do not know why so many of my colleagues picked a team who has two wins in four-plus years); Clyde over Graham and Benjamin over Christ the King.
Starting this week I will be blogging about my weekly predictions.
Posted by at 4:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
