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Playoff scenarios
October 28, 2008A few teams from this area have made the playoffs. A few more will be up for grabs this Friday. And the rest will be decided in Week 10.
Here is a look at several different scenarios and possibilities for each district, and what I think will happen:
DISTRICT 5-3A
Who is in: Bridgeport
Who can get in with a win Friday: Burkburnett, Decatur
Who is also still alive: Vernon, Iowa Park
Who is out: Hirschi
Scenarios: Burk should beat IP this weekend, and in doing that will take up the Div. I spot, leaving one still up for grabs. I think Vernon has a pretty good shot at beating Decatur. If that happens, then the Lions will need to down the Hawks in the last week of the season. We are going to assume Bridgeport beats Decatur in Week 10. So if IP can beat Vernon, then those two teams and the Eagles will be tied for third at 2-3. Then it comes down to points. However, all of this is rendered moot if Decatur takes down Vernon because then it would wind up 3-2 and would have beaten both IP and Vernon.
What I think will happen: Vernon wins out and takes the last spot.
DISTRICT 5-2A
Who is in: Henrietta, Holliday
Who can get in with a win Friday: No one
Who is also still alive: Bowie, Nocona and surprisingly, Olney
Who is out: City View
Scenarios: Henrietta-Holliday will be for the district title and, if Bowie makes it, the easier road to the playoffs (more on that in a column in Thursday's paper). The Bowie-Nocona game offers different stakes for different teams. If Bowie wins, and we will assume Olney beats City View, then Bowie-City View that last week is for the last playoff spot. A Nocona loss this week puts them out of the playoffs. If Nocona wins, Bowie is still alive. That is because the Jackrabbits could beat Olney the next week, and if Henrietta beat Nocona in Week 10, then all three teams would be 2-3 and it would go down to points. If Nocona won out, the Indians would get in if Olney lost. Olney wins out, and they are in.
What I think will happen: Bowie beats Nocona, ending the Indians' chances. Then Bowie beats Olney for the last playoff spot.
District 9-2A
Who is in: Technically nobody, although Paradise is really close.
Who can get in with a win Friday: Paradise, Jacksboro, Boyd
Who is also still alive: Alvord
Who is out: Millsap, Chico
Scenarios: Paradise will probably win its last two games, so we will assume it goes 5-0. If Jacksboro beats Alvord this weekend, then they will get second in district. Boyd would lose to Paradise this week, but then beat Millsap to get in on Week 10. Now if Alvord beats Jacksboro, there is a pretty good chance those two and Boyd all finish at 3-2. Then it comes down to points. Right now, Boyd is done at a +4. Jacksboro is a +7 and Alvord is a -11. So the Tigers could suffer an 8-point loss to Alvord, beat Chico and then get in anyway.
What I think will happen: Jacksboro beats Alvord, rendering the math moot. And Boyd gets in as well.
District 9-A
Who is in: Archer City
Who can get in with a win Friday: Seymour, Windthorst
Who is also still alive: Munday, Petrolia
Who is out: Electra
Scenarios: There are still a lot of them. For Munday to get in, they would need to upset Archer City, win out and then have Seymour or Windthorst lose out (they play each other in Week 10). Windthorst should beat Electra, so I do not think that will happen. Petrolia needs to beat Seymour to have a chance, but even then the Pirates would probably need to take down Munday too. If Seymour were to lose out, Petrolia beats Seymour and loses to Munday, and Munday loses to AC and beats Petrolia, then all three would be 2-3 and it would go down to points.
What I think will happen: A lot of crazy things can still happen, but I do not see it. Windthorst and Seymour win this weekend, and Week 10 offers no uncertainty.
Posted by at 2:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Comments
Consider the following (extremely unlikely) scenario:
Electra defeats Archer City
Electra defeats Windthorst by 17
Seymour defeats Petrolia
Seymour defeats Windthorst
Archer City defeats Munday
Munday defeats Petrolia
This Puts 9-A in the following scenario:
AC 4-1
Seymour 4-1
Electra 2-3
Windthorst 2-3
Munday 2-3
Petrolia 1-4
Now, the log jam at 2-3 goes to points, and given the above, we have Electra +6, Munday +5, Windthorst -11, so Electra gets the nod.
Now, it's possible I messed up this analysis, but this is what I figure.
The playoff road for Burkburnett isn't shaping up as one might desire.
Assuming the Bulldogs make their way into the playoffs, they will receive a first round bye. If the playoffs started today, they would play the winner of the Gatesville / Liberty Hill game. Ouch!
Ironically, Burkburnett desperately needs Burnet to churn out a couple of wins in the next two weeks. This would latch up a playoff spot for Burnett. They would be the big school representative from District 8, and Liberty Hill would then go to the small school bracket.
All eyes will be on South Texas late this Halloween night if the Bulldogs pull out a win at Iowa Park.
If the rules have not changed since last year, District 9A has a point differential of 13. Therefore there is not a scenario where Electra makes the playoffs.
Question regarding 9-2A - most districts revert to the first tiebreaker once the first tie is broken which is head to head. Therefore Jacksboro can only lose by 3 or less to make the playoffs -since Alvord would have the head to head tiebreaker.
