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Upsets brewing in Week 6 predictions
October 9, 2008Maybe I am getting a little crazy. Or maybe I am secretly hoping that these district races get really muddled right off the bat.
Or maybe I just don't want to pick who everybody else is picking.
But looking at the intriguing district matchups this weekend, I can foresee some upsets. Let's look at them:
UPSETS I PICKED IN THE PAPER
* Windthorst over Archer City: This is a huge District 9-A opener, and the game I will be at. First, let me give you five reasons why the Trojans can win this game:
1) They lost last year for the first time since 1999. So they are probably looking for some revenge, and I bet Coach Green is playing the underdog card with his team.
2) It is a rivalry game. Anything can happen.
3) I have had a couple people who have seen both these teams play tell me there's not really that much of a gap between them.
4) The Trojans have played three teams (Holliday, Alvord, Stamford) better than anybody the Wildcats have played. Archer City tried to schedule a couple tougher non-district teams this time around, but Haskell and Lindsay are not as good as they have been.
5) This is the first time in a long, long time the Wildcats enter this matchup and are suppose to win. Can they handle that pressure in their toughest game so far?
Now obviously, the Wildcats could end up winning this one easily, too. They have the game's best player (Sam Smith), I am sure they have lots of confidence right now. The game is at home, and their defense has been lights out. Plus, Windthorst has had some turnover problems this year.
But I remember how I did not give the Trojans any chance of making a playoff run last year, and then they wind up knocking off Gorman and Goldthwaite, then played Munday the closest any team had that season. So that is why they are my first upset pick.
* Bowie at Henrietta: Minor upset pick here with the Jackrabbits (Henrietta was favored by 7 the place where I saw it).
Although I liked what I saw last week from the Bearcats (they beat Jacksboro worse than Bowie did), it came with the Tigers' leading rusher and two linemen out.
The reason I choose this upset is that Bowie can pass the ball and Henrietta is giving up 185 yards a game through the air. You cannot run on them, but a couple of deep balls to Cyler Matlock may be enough.
Plus, and it is no easy task, but if you can find a way to stop Seth Crumpton, can anyone else step up? Bowie has multiple weapons, thus they are the pick.
* Bridgeport over Burkburnett: This would be an upset only with the AP rankings (Burk is No. 8, Bridgeport is not ranked). Frankly, this could go either way, but I think the Bulls are more dimensional on offense so if they fall behind, they can make a couple of quick scores. Can't say the same for Burk, which does probably have the better defense in this one.
UPSETS I WAS TOO SPINELESS TO PICK IN THE PAPER
I have a nice little cushion in the high school periscope leaders, but I did not want to get carried away by the upset picking. Here are some upsets that would not surprise me, though.
* The Colony over Rider: The Raiders are without Shavodrick Beaver and are banged up at a couple other positions as well. Rider has to feel pretty good about its playoff spot, and is hoping everything goes well with a new QB. The Colony has more at stake in this one, which makes them dangerous.
* WFHS at Little Elm: This could be the Coyotes' last win, with a brutal stretch to follow after this. But playing without their QB on the road will not help. Little Elm is not very good, but it lost by about the same margin to Lake Dallas as the Coyotes did. WFHS should win, but anything is possible during upset week.
* Iowa Park over Decatur: Probably the most possible out of all of these. IP has reverted to its wing offense and ran it well in its last game. Both defenses are not very good at all, but Coach Ellis told me he thinks his defense will get better if the offense controls the clock more.
I expect a high-scoring game, and in a game like that, I can see turnovers making a big difference. Decatur's QB has thrown eight INTs in the last two games. So IP could cause some shake-up in 5-3A.
* Hirschi over Vernon: Now you are probably thinking I am throwing in upset picks just for show. But hear me out on this one.
Neither team has scored more than 14 points in a game thus far. So unless either offense finds a rhythm, points could be at a premium. And Hirschi still has some game-breakers, so who knows what will happen.
NO UPSETS HERE (AND WILL BE SHOCKED IF THEY DO HAPPEN)
Holliday over Olney: Unless Pittman has made some miraculous recovery.
Nocona over City View: By a lot.
TOSS-UPS
I picked Munday over Seymour and Petrolia over Electra. Who knows what can happen here, though.
Does anybody agree/disagree with these upset picks? What are y'alls thoughts?
Posted by at 11:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
