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Week 9 predictions
October 30, 2008We will start with the most meaningful game of the weekend: Holliday at Henrietta.
This will decide the 5-2A title, and if Bowie makes the playoffs, then the winner will also avoid Cisco too.
I hadn't seen Holliday until last week, and I came away pretty impressed. This may not be one of Holliday's best couple of teams in the last 10 years, but the Eagles can play.
Henrietta can too, but will QB Seth Crumpton? Coach West told me today "as far as he knew" Crumpton would play. It sounded like Crumpton had done some light practicing.
So is Crumpton a game-time decision? Or is it one of those things they'll start him and see if he can go? Or is he fully healed? I really don't know. Guess we will wait and see.
If Crumpton cannot go, I don't foresee a Henrietta win. The Henrietta defense is staunch, and QB Chase Darnell looked great last week (albeit against City View) but Crumpton makes Henrietta go.
While this is arguably the best area district rivalry right now (I would have said Vernon-Graham, but they no longer play. Burk-IP is pretty good too, but both teams have not played at a playoff level consistently), Holliday has had Henrietta's number four of the last five years.
Even in 2005, when Henrietta won district and Holliday missed the playoffs, the Eagles won. I remember the last Bearcat win, a 10-0 decision in 2004.
That year, Holliday had the best player on the field (Colin Leggett) but Henrietta had more weapons (a passing game, Matt Key and a powerful fullback who I think was named Heath Moore).
That is why I like the Eagles. Crumpton may be the best player on the field (and hopefully he plays) but the Eagles are deeper with home-run threats.
Some other games to look at:
*Little Elm at Rider: The Raiders have not lost a 5-4A game. Little Elm is winless all year. Rider by four touchdowns, and it would be more but the Raiders are resting some guys in preparation for the playoffs.
*WFHS at Denton Guyer: Can the Coyotes make one last stand? Unless they have found some more defense, I think they lose in a scorefest.
*Bridgeport at Hirschi: I cringe when I think of this game. The Huskies lost last week to Iowa Park, 37-0. IP trailed Bridgeport 49-0 at the half a week before. The Bulls will name the score.
*Burkburnett at Iowa Park: The Hawks are getting better, but they are not quite good enough to hang with Burk, which does a great job at stuffing the run. Bulldogs by 10-14.
*Graham at Abilene Wylie: The Steers pulled a huge upset off last week, but I think two in a row is a little too much to ask.
*Vernon at Decatur: I saw a little tape on Burk-Decatur last week, and the Eagles really struggled stopping the run. Holes were huge. And once a back got through, often there was not a second line of defense.
That said, Decatur scored 41 points more than Vernon did against Burkburnett. QB Tim Metts is a good player, although he is capable of throwing some interceptions.
Still, I expect Vernon to run wild in a high-scoring win. If not, then the 5-3A playoff spots will be set.
*Nocona at Bowie: I think the Indians will come out playing very desperate. Assuming RB Bear Treadway plays, I think Bowie should win, but the Jackrabbits have to cut down on turnovers (10 in two 5-2A losses).
*Olney vs. City View: The Cubs will win easily and have a shot at the playoffs going into the final week. Two weeks ago, I would have thought the last part of that sentence is crazy.
*Munday at Archer City: I think this game could be closer than the AC-Seymour or AC-Windthorst games. The Moguls are hanging on by a thread.
Maybe Rob Dillard comes back to play offense (he played defense last week), but the Wildcats are the deeper team. They win by 10.
*Seymour at Petrolia: The Pirates would be atop 9-A in games were only half as long. I think this game could be pretty lose, and it seems like Petrolia always play the Panthers hard (like last year).
But Seymour has been on a mission to get back to the playoffs. The only thing I find weird about these Panthers: they used their third QB of the season last week (Cade Williamson), and I never got ahold of Coach Castles to find out why.
*Electra at Windthorst: Trojans win handily, making their 14th straight playoff appearance.
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