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Why I picked Archer City
November 20, 2008I am planning on blogging about the rest of the playoff games sometime later today or tomorrow. First, I want to examine the Archer City-Roscoe game.
There are plenty of reasons why the No. 3 Plowboys should win. Playoff experience is one of them. And Roscoe, which has an abundance of skill players, is favored nearly everywhere you look.
I'm going to tell you why I picked Archer City to pull off a mini-upset. It may not happen, but here are my thoughts on why it could:
* Archer City's defensive line: Last year Roscoe was eliminated by Munday (another 9-A champ), and in that game, the Moguls were relentless with a pass rush that hounded Roscoe QB Jacob Villanueva all night. I cannot recall how many sacks they had, but Villanueva rarely had time to throw the ball.
And Munday forced seven turnovers. I am not sure if the Wildcats' defensive line is as good as Munday's was, but it is the backbone of their defense. Kolby Rowe is a force, and if those guys can generate pressure, then they will have a chance.
* Another mention of history: I am not going to pretend to know exactly how many starters return on Roscoe's defense, but I do know this.
Munday ran for 299 yards against them last year. I remember at least three of four pretty bug runs by the Moguls. Archer City's Sam Smith is averaging 12 yards per carry, so he could have a big night. And he will probably need to.
* A third mention of history: Our Wichita Falls area teams at the Class A level have fared pretty well against Abilene teams through the years in the playoffs.
Last year, Munday took down Roscoe while a 4-6 Windthorst team beat Gorman and Goldthwaite.
In 2006, Windthorst edged an unbeaten Goldthwaite (a huge early-playoff game kind of like this one) and Electra knocked off Albany.
Windthorst also beat Haskell in 2004 and 2005; very good Albany teams in 2003 and 2004; and Roscoe in 2003. Petrolia also knocked off a couple of Abilene schools en route to a state title in 2002.
* The elements: Not sure if it is supposed to be real windy or raining, but I would rather have an offense running out of the I-Formation than a spread attack in bad conditions. And it seems like the weather does a lot of crazy things in the playoffs.
* Quick start: One of the reasons Munday won last year was because it scored two touchdowns before Roscoe's offense took the field (an accidental onsides kick helped the cause).
If AC can get off to a quick lead, there it can stay run-oriented and not have to worry about playing catch-up. If Roscoe scores the first couple touchdowns, then the Wildcats may have to throw the ball more than they would like.
* Week off: Archer City did not play last week, which helped them get rid of some bumps and bruises. It might mean they come out rusty too, but at least they will be at full strength.
* Aren't I due: While I am leading the high school periscope picks at the paper, I haven't really gone on a limb and been right this whole year.
I picked Windthorst over Archer City, and that obviously did not work out. I was wrong on Lake Dallas over Rider. Basically, I have been playing it a little somewhat safe and have yet to be correct on an upset selection.
So aren't I due?
Posted by at 2:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Comments
Hmm...Roscoe turned it over five times due to constant pressure from Archer's d-line. Two of those were directly turned into touchdowns. I would say your prediction was pretty good.
